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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
SwingTrader
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Post: #301   PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OTM PCR Rank (updated with 12.09.2013 data)

Balance started to trip but we are not there yet.Maybe a break below yesterday's low and similar action on option OIs would trigger a down move. Let us see...

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vinay28
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Post: #302   PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
OTM PCR Rank (updated with 12.09.2013 data)

Balance started to trip but we are not there yet.Maybe a break below yesterday's low and similar action on option OIs would trigger a down move. Let us see...


worth tracking this everyday now, at least till 18th. thanks
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Post: #303   PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OTM PCR chart with data for 13.09.2013 updated.

OTM PCR is back down to its bullish extreme. So the short-term uptrend is still intact for now.

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vinay28
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Post: #304   PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

indeed ST.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #305   PostPosted: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Market Breadth & Options Sentiment charts (updated 13.09.2013)

Long term it still doesn't look that good. The long term sentiment might start moving up if we get a consolidation and a further move up. No idea if that will happen, we'll just have to wait and watch how things unfold.

NOTE: Options sentiment is same as the OTM PCR chart that I started posting recently (just without the extreme bands), just that it is in raw format instead of the rank that I compute for the OTM PCR Rank chart.

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Post: #306   PostPosted: Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

looks faintly promising
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rk_a2003
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Post: #307   PostPosted: Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
looks faintly promising


Is it faintly or fairly promising? Smile
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Post: #308   PostPosted: Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rk_a2003 wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
looks faintly promising


Is it faintly or fairly promising? Smile


no rk, as of now chart shows a faint possibility as of now.
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Post: #309   PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE OTM PCR Rank and Options Sentiment charts (updated with today's data)

No change yet. But options sentiment / OTM PCR rank has indicated some bearishness today but not enough to signal a down move.

I am not sure but today could have been a top, but I am not yet taking action yet.

I am using these two charts in the following way:

1. For a down move I wait for "Option Sentiment" to cross above the center line (dotted) (for an up move I wait for option sentiment to cross below the center line).

2. Once condition #1 is satisfied, I wait for price to break below nearest significant support pivot/level (most of the times it is clear cut, sometimes it is a decision base on one's judgement). For up move I wait for price to break above nearest support pivot/level.

OTM PCR bias change happens when it moves above/below the 50% mark (this can be used in place of options sentiment as they both are basically the same, options sentiment uses the raw value of OTM PCR and OTM PCR Rank is the percent rank of OTM PCR).

I am waiting for condition #1 to be satisfied first, it has not yet happened.

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Post: #310   PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST, it appears that "time to sell" does not come till it has crossed above 0.20 and, that too at times, a couple of times. Confusion reigns right now, I feel.
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Post: #311   PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
ST, it appears that "time to sell" does not come till it has crossed above 0.20 and, that too at times, a couple of times. Confusion reigns right now, I feel.


Waiting for it to cross 0.20 seens to be a bit too conservative. I have been using options sentiment chart this way since few months (after I abandoned the previous way as mentioned in this thread a while ago). I just wait for it to cross above/below the center dotted line BUT after that I wait for the price to prove that the move has really begun (pivot breaks in the direction of signal). This has been working better for me. But I admit that I have only traded 6 signals from this chart until now so this is still experimental.

The funny thing is that these signals are really not improving my timing as my usual price action based signals are more or less similar to these.

I am not seeing any price action based signal for a down move as of now...maybe we will if we see a price breakdown tomm.

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Post: #312   PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hmm, ok, interesting. let's follow the ranking at least till a big move is made.
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sureenderkalra
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Post: #313   PostPosted: Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader, Both the charts posted by you are really helpful to get a sound confirmation of trend of nifty. Please keep posting the same.

And, I request you to post the same charts for banknifty too. Is it possible for you to do so?
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Post: #314   PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sureenderkalra wrote:
SwingTrader, Both the charts posted by you are really helpful to get a sound confirmation of trend of nifty. Please keep posting the same.

And, I request you to post the same charts for banknifty too. Is it possible for you to do so?


I will try BNF and see. I have done this only for NF because it is very liquid. I have not checked BNF volume/OI for a while now, if there is enough vol/OI then we can try otherwise this kind of stat will not make sense for low vol/OI scrips.

Will update you later on this.

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bharatpatel
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Post: #315   PostPosted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:59 am    Post subject: hi Reply with quote

Bouncer ....... Far over the head .....

Just like another world of T A.

Trying to learn ( too hard to be understood)

But keep it up sir.

Regards.
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