| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Market Sentiment |
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
Post: #316  Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
 |
|
| bharatpatel wrote: | Bouncer ....... Far over the head .....
Just like another world of T A.
Trying to learn ( too hard to be understood)
But keep it up sir.
Regards. |
Bharat,
This is all experimental stuff, best to ignore. If this works well I will post a better/easier explanation.
One important thing to remember: all this stuff is NOT required for trading well. Simple support/resistance, moving averages etc work fine.
Regards.
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
|
bharatpatel
White Belt
Joined: 26 Oct 2011
Posts: 401
|
| Post: #317 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:09 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
|
|
| SwingTrader wrote: | | bharatpatel wrote: | Bouncer ....... Far over the head .....
Just like another world of T A.
Trying to learn ( too hard to be understood)
But keep it up sir.
Regards. |
Bharat,
This is all experimental stuff, best to ignore. If this works well I will post a better/easier explanation.
One important thing to remember: all this stuff is NOT required for trading well. Simple support/resistance, moving averages etc work fine.
Regards. |
This is what makes you THE GREAT . |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #318 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:33 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
|
|
| bharatpatel wrote: |
This is what makes you THE GREAT . |
Bharat,
Please don't say that. There is nothing "great" about me. I just persist in what I do even if I hit dead ends. Over time I have found that when I persist I usually get good ideas now and then.
Stay tuned to this space, will post less confusing ideas soon 
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #319 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Updated Options Sentiment & OTM PCR Rank charts (17.09.2013)
Almost no change as today was just a sideways day. No bearish signals yet. Waiting game continues....
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
bharatpatel
White Belt
Joined: 26 Oct 2011
Posts: 401
|
| Post: #320 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
|
|
| SwingTrader wrote: | | bharatpatel wrote: |
This is what makes you THE GREAT . |
Bharat,
Please don't say that. There is nothing "great" about me. I just persist in what I do even if I hit dead ends. Over time I have found that when I persist I usually get good ideas now and then.
Stay tuned to this space, will post less confusing ideas soon |
Same was expected , sir.
Thanks, |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
|
| Post: #321 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
|
|
| SwingTrader wrote: | | bharatpatel wrote: |
This is what makes you THE GREAT . |
Bharat,
Please don't say that. There is nothing "great" about me. I just persist in what I do even if I hit dead ends. Over time I have found that when I persist I usually get good ideas now and then.
Stay tuned to this space, will post less confusing ideas soon |
Then more power to you!
.... wait, you are the site admin... no scope of additional powers to you, sorries!  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #322 Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:52 pm Post subject: Re: hi |
|
|
| apka wrote: |
Then more power to you!
.... wait, you are the site admin... no scope of additional powers to you, sorries! |
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #323 Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Updated OTM PCR Rank & Options Sentiment charts (18.09.2013)
Same story....short-term uptrend continues. No bearish signals yet.
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #324 Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank & Options Sentiment charts (18.09.2013)
Same story....short-term uptrend continues. No bearish signals yet. |
It is amazing how pcr is manipulated (components are reversed) even as nifty maintains its trend. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #325 Posted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:34 am Post subject: |
|
|
| vinay28 wrote: | | It is amazing how pcr is manipulated (components are reversed) even as nifty maintains its trend. |
Instead of saying "manipulated" I would say PCR gets adjusted, the way it does, due to trade adjustments to ensure profitability of existing positions.
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #326 Posted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:09 am Post subject: |
|
|
| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | It is amazing how pcr is manipulated (components are reversed) even as nifty maintains its trend. |
Instead of saying "manipulated" I would say PCR gets adjusted, the way it does, due to trade adjustments to ensure profitability of existing positions. |
yes, if we go strictly by the fact that pcr is a result and not cause. What I meant was "manipulations" by trades. That's why I put in brackets "components are reversed". |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #327 Posted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:10 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Updated OTM PCR & Options Sentiment charts (19.09.2013)
Thanks to the huge rally, OTM PCR Rank & Options Sentiment are back at bullish extreme. No bearish signals yet. Let us see how it goes from here.
I will post market breadth charts tomm evening.
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
anandrathi12
White Belt
Joined: 01 Dec 2010
Posts: 38
|
| Post: #328 Posted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:08 pm Post subject: |
|
|
ST sir,
thanks a ton for regular very imp updates...
ST sir cn u plot nifty chart in parallel to options sentiment charts (may or may not overlap). Nifty & Options sentiment charts together may provide better indication as per prev moves...
It looks like Options sentiment arnd 0.05 for second time (kind of double bottom..lol ) indicating ending of this rally very soon (say start of end)... need to get confirmation with price though...
Thanks..
Anand
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #329 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
| anandrathi12 wrote: | ST sir,
thanks a ton for regular very imp updates...
ST sir cn u plot nifty chart in parallel to options sentiment charts (may or may not overlap). Nifty & Options sentiment charts together may provide better indication as per prev moves...
It looks like Options sentiment arnd 0.05 for second time (kind of double bottom..lol ) indicating ending of this rally very soon (say start of end)... need to get confirmation with price though...
Thanks..
Anand
|
Sure, I will add Nifty to options sentiment chart and post it later. You can see OTM PCR chart to get an idea about it too. OTM PCR is same as options sentiment but shown on a different scale.
Even though the current level is at an extreme, it can fluctuate around this area for a while as market edges up (it stayed around these level for 21 days in Jan-Feb 2012). I have not found any way to predict when it will move away from extreme levels. If you remember I was doing a live trading test using options sentiment signals (triggered based on moving standard deviation bands). It did work for a while but then failed for certain period when I stopped using those signals. I did continue to work on it and observed that sudden moves away from extremes indicate significant sentiment shifts that could indicate change of trends ONLY IF price breaks out (above/below nearby resistance/support) in the direction of the indicated shifts. If price does not break out then the signal is ignored. This has worked quite well and seems to have worked throughout the options sentiment history I have. The dotted line that I added to the options sentiment chart is the line that I look for options sentiment to break after it hits an extreme. Once this happens I look for price breakout.
Sorry if this is confusing, I will post examples of this idea later...
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
SwingTrader
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
|
| Post: #330 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:54 am Post subject: |
|
|
Anand,
Here you go. I have reduced the date range (to make the chart more clear) and added NF closing prices.
Also, few posts ago Vinay had mentioned that options sentiment going to the other extreme is a good signal but I thought it would be too conservative to wait that long but looking closely at the chart now, that idea makes lot of sense. What he meant was that from the current 0.05 levels if options sentiment goes on to hit 0.2 then it would indicate a probable change of trend. This makes sense as it would indicate a complete reversal of OI balance.
What I do currently is this: for example if I am looking for a sell signal (assuming market is at bullish extreme as it is now) I wait for options sentiment to go above the dotted line (average of bullish & bearish extreme) and then look for price breakdown below key supports. This could result in whipsaws now and then but generally gets into a move quicker. Vinay's idea will probably result fewer whipsaws but could be slightly late (but it may not matter that much). This idea could actually be much better than mine. I will be testing this closely.
More examples later...
_________________
Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
