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Pats
White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013
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Post: #331  Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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Hi ST,
Nice efforts, specially in the last chart posted ! But is there something missing ? Say, some volume or OI or some other indiacator in the lower half ! Or may be I have not got it correctly?
Have you executed any trades using this method and the charts, if yes, can you post the executed or planned trades on your observations, for the benefit of the others like me, who have not grasped the technique fully ?
You must be doing a lot of hard work, I guess !
Best Luck to you !
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #332 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Anand,
Here you go. I have reduced the date range (to make the chart more clear) and added NF closing prices.
Also, few posts ago Vinay had mentioned that options sentiment going to the other extreme is a good signal but I thought it would be too conservative to wait that long but looking closely at the chart now, that idea makes lot of sense. What he meant was that from the current 0.05 levels if options sentiment goes on to hit 0.2 then it would indicate a probable change of trend. This makes sense as it would indicate a complete reversal of OI balance.
What I do currently is this: for example if I am looking for a sell signal (assuming market is at bullish extreme as it is now) I wait for options sentiment to go above the dotted line (average of bullish & bearish extreme) and then look for price breakdown below key supports. This could result in whipsaws now and then but generally gets into a move quicker. Vinay's idea will probably result fewer whipsaws but could be slightly late (but it may not matter that much). This idea could actually be much better than mine. I will be testing this closely.
More examples later... |
many thanks ST. Looks like we really need to watch it daily now, if you can get time. |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #333 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Pats wrote: | Hi ST,
Nice efforts, specially in the last chart posted ! But is there something missing ? Say, some volume or OI or some other indiacator in the lower half ! Or may be I have not got it correctly?
Have you executed any trades using this method and the charts, if yes, can you post the executed or planned trades on your observations, for the benefit of the others like me, who have not grasped the technique fully ?
You must be doing a lot of hard work, I guess !
Best Luck to you !
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Thanks. Actually one line in the chart is Nifty futures and the other line is the indicator itself (options sentiment).
I have not yet traded the signals. I will be doing a live test with one contract starting with the next signal. Will post updates regularly about this.
Not much hard work actually  I just take data from our database, paste it in excel to update the chart.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #334 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:58 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
many thanks ST. Looks like we really need to watch it daily now, if you can get time. |
Thank you for the idea. I will post updates everyday. I want to do a live test on these signals so I will be updating everyday.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #335 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
many thanks ST. Looks like we really need to watch it daily now, if you can get time. |
Thank you for the idea. I will post updates everyday. I want to do a live test on these signals so I will be updating everyday. |
live test? can you plot intraday movement of pcr? if so, today's will be very interesting. |
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SwingTrader
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #336 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
live test? can you plot intraday movement of pcr? if so, today's will be very interesting. |
live test : will be trading the signals using a single NF contract. This is to remove any mental bias that may be there in signal selection. This is usually how I test any trading system.
For intraday, I will have to see. Will let you know if I am able to do it.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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| Post: #337 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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| ok, sure, thanks ST. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #338 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank & Options Sentiment charts (20.09.2013)
No change in the open interest balance yet. Bulls still controlling the proceedings.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #339 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank & Options Sentiment charts (20.09.2013)
No change in the open interest balance yet. Bulls still controlling the proceedings. |
at least today's fall rightly corresponds to a rise in rank. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #340 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 7:56 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
at least today's fall rightly corresponds to a rise in rank. |
Yeah, that is normal - price decline will result in rank rising and price rise will result in rank falling. I was thinking maybe today's move would could push it a lot further. But well...will have to wait some more...
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #341 Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2013 8:38 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
at least today's fall rightly corresponds to a rise in rank. |
Yeah, that is normal - price decline will result in rank rising and price rise will result in rank falling. I was thinking maybe today's move would could push it a lot further. But well...will have to wait some more... |
Oh I know ST. I said it because just yesterday or the day before, if I remember right, it moved opposite on that day and that's why I had commented about manipulation. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #342 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:17 am Post subject: |
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Updated Market Breadth chart (20.09.2013)
The short & intermediate term trends have been impressive lately but long term is is yet to budge seriously. The next pullback is crucial, if it holds key supports then we could hope for a continued rally going forward (at which time the long term sentiment might start going up).
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #343 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 11:56 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated Market Breadth chart (20.09.2013)
The short & intermediate term trends have been impressive lately but long term is is yet to budge seriously. The next pullback is crucial, if it holds key supports then we could hope for a continued rally going forward (at which time the long term sentiment might start going up). |
hmmm, it has formed a nice "saucer"!
ST, can you look far back to see whether LT sentiment remained flat for such a long time in the past? |
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SwingTrader
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #344 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:46 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
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ST, can you look far back to see whether LT sentiment remained flat for such a long time in the past? |
As of now I have data for market sentiment since 2010 only. There was one such occurrence in 2011 when LT sentiment stayed below -80% for extended period of time. It was from 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months). The current such period started on 21.03.2013 when LT sentiment went below -80%. It has now gone beyond the 2011 duration.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
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| Post: #345 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
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ST, can you look far back to see whether LT sentiment remained flat for such a long time in the past? |
As of now I have data for market sentiment since 2010 only. There was one such occurrence in 2011 when LT sentiment stayed below -80% for extended period of time. It was from 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months). The current such period started on 21.03.2013 when LT sentiment went below -80%. It has now gone beyond the 2011 duration. |
ok thanks ST. |
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