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rk_a2003
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Post: #346  Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
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ST, can you look far back to see whether LT sentiment remained flat for such a long time in the past? |
As of now I have data for market sentiment since 2010 only. There was one such occurrence in 2011 when LT sentiment stayed below -80% for extended period of time. It was from 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months). The current such period started on 21.03.2013 when LT sentiment went below -80%. It has now gone beyond the 2011 duration. |
Prior to 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months) Index is in down trend .these six months it’s in some sort of consolidation with upward bias and finally formed HNS on weekly chart to go down 800+ points in 6 weeks.
The current period which is still going on is also in a consolidation but in an uptrend. But this consolidation has no bias. No pattern formation yet visible. May be inverted HNS is in the making off late, can’t say for sure. However the range is almost same for both the periods appox.700 points once this range is broken we may expect 700 points either side with in a few weeks.
Target on upside is 6800 and on down side 4800.
ST please correct me in case my observations are wrong. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #347 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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| rk, you said plus/minus 700 but your range is 2000. 6700/5300 by/before end dec is more like it, I guess. |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #348 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | rk, you said plus/minus 700 but your range is 2000. 6700/5300 by/before end dec is more like it, I guess. |
Add 700 for the consolidation range 700+700+700 approx 2000  |
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #349 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| And one more thing the first period was for 6 months and the present period just completed 6 months the index is near upper range. So in all likely hood the upside target appears to be most probable now. |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #350 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:51 pm Post subject: |
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| rk_a2003 wrote: |
Prior to 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months) Index is in down trend .these six months it’s in some sort of consolidation with upward bias and finally formed HNS on weekly chart to go down 800+ points in 6 weeks.
The current period which is still going on is also in a consolidation but in an uptrend. But this consolidation has no bias. No pattern formation yet visible. May be inverted HNS is in the making off late, can’t say for sure. However the range is almost same for both the periods appox.700 points once this range is broken we may expect 700 points either side with in a few weeks.
Target on upside is 6800 and on down side 4800.
ST please correct me in case my observations are wrong. |
rk, I will go with your estimation. I am not good at such predictions/estimations so I stopped that exercise long time ago and started following/riding trends. I just hope market keeps moving like this and at this pace whichever side it decides to go. 
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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rk_a2003
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| Post: #351 Posted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | rk_a2003 wrote: |
Prior to 27.01.2011 to 18.07.2011 (around 6 months) Index is in down trend .these six months it’s in some sort of consolidation with upward bias and finally formed HNS on weekly chart to go down 800+ points in 6 weeks.
The current period which is still going on is also in a consolidation but in an uptrend. But this consolidation has no bias. No pattern formation yet visible. May be inverted HNS is in the making off late, can’t say for sure. However the range is almost same for both the periods appox.700 points once this range is broken we may expect 700 points either side with in a few weeks.
Target on upside is 6800 and on down side 4800.
ST please correct me in case my observations are wrong. |
rk, I will go with your estimation. I am not good at such predictions/estimations so I stopped that exercise long time ago and started following/riding trends. I just hope market keeps moving like this and at this pace whichever side it decides to go. |
Thanks ST,
That could be the difference between an amateur and a professional.  |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #352 Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank, NF 60 mins & Options Sentiment charts (23.09.2013)
At last some interesting movement on these charts. Options sentiment shot up above the dotted line (the mean level above which is bearish & below which is bullish). This also means OTM PCR rank (which is based on options sentiment) shot up above 50% level which is significant for me. Now this itself is not a trade trigger for me. Now I start watching the NF chart for a breakdown below nearest significant support. If and when it does (below the yellow dotted line on NF chart) that will be a trade trigger for me. I would prefer options only for now so if the market slaps me with a rally after I initiate the trade, it would hurt a bit less
Still in watch mode...for the breakdown.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #353 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:36 am Post subject: |
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Clarification: Until the breakdown mentioned below happens, market is still in uptrend mode for me.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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| Post: #354 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank, NF 60 mins & Options Sentiment charts (23.09.2013)
At last some interesting movement on these charts. Options sentiment shot up above the dotted line (the mean level above which is bearish & below which is bullish). This also means OTM PCR rank (which is based on options sentiment) shot up above 50% level which is significant for me. Now this itself is not a trade trigger for me. Now I start watching the NF chart for a breakdown below nearest significant support. If and when it does (below the yellow dotted line on NF chart) that will be a trade trigger for me. I would prefer options only for now so if the market slaps me with a rally after I initiate the trade, it would hurt a bit less
Still in watch mode...for the breakdown. |
very nicely poised now ST. Your point about breaking significant pivot is correct, otherwise if rank goes near/to 100% and reverses again to 50%, it may signal a buy instead. By the way, your break is instantaneous or 60tf close? Also, why are you looking for a breakdown? Why not a breakout? Doesn't that amount to being presumptuous? |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #355 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
very nicely poised now ST. Your point about breaking significant pivot is correct, otherwise if rank goes near/to 100% and reverses again to 50%, it may signal a buy instead. By the way, your break is instantaneous or 60tf close? Also, why are you looking for a breakdown? Why not a breakout? Doesn't that amount to being presumptuous? |
The breakdown I am looking for is on a closing basis on 60 mins and since I am trading options I am going to be a bit lazy taking on opposite position. I would rather be a bit late than too early.
I am looking for a breakdown (downside) only as I am already long. Watching out only for bearish signals to take profits and go the other way.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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| Post: #356 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:46 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | .........I am looking for a breakdown (downside) only as I am already long. Watching out only for bearish signals to take profits and go the other way. |
smart guy! |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #357 Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NSE OTM PCR Rank chart (24.09.2013)
Not much change in the rank due to the sideways move today. Watching for a breakdown of supports for bearish signals.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Pats
White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013
Posts: 407
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| Post: #358 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:14 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NSE OTM PCR Rank chart (24.09.2013)
Not much change in the rank due to the sideways move today. Watching for a breakdown of supports for bearish signals. |
Hi ST,
Hope you have initiated some actual trade using this chart.
Also if Nifty closes with swing low as is now ( at 12:15PM ) or >100 pts, it may help to know the difference for proper tests !
Best Luck !
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SwingTrader
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Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #359 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Pats wrote: | Hi ST,
Hope you have initiated some actual trade using this chart.
Also if Nifty closes with swing low as is now ( at 12:15PM ) or >100 pts, it may help to know the difference for proper tests !
Best Luck !
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At the moment I am waiting for a 60 mins close below 5815 or so to initiate a bearish trade. If it closes below that I will initiate a a bearish trade using options just before market close.
I did not understand your point about the swing low and how it could help for proper test. Please elaborate. Thanks.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Pats
White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013
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| Post: #360 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: |
At the moment I am waiting for a 60 mins close below 5815 or so to initiate a bearish trade. If it closes below that I will initiate a a bearish trade using options just before market close.
I did not understand your point about the swing low and how it could help for proper test. Please elaborate. Thanks. |
Since you are analysing all the trades in the graph on closing basis, so "the swing low" which I mentioned is not intra-day basis, but on closing basis.
Secondly, since your graph is based on the sentiments of the traders, as your topic title suggest, so on every rise or fall of 100 pts in Nifty ( on CB ), infers the change of sentiments in the market. And that is the point, which I have mentioned !
Hope this clears my point !
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