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SwingTrader
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Post: #361  Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (25.09.2013)
No breakdown yet, uptrend holding for now. OTM PCR rank has not changed much today. I will continue to watch 60 mins chart for a breakdown below 5815 on a daily closing basis. The price could take support anywhere in the gap below this level but I will still take a bearish stance below this level. At that point I will be closing my longs and will take on ITM oct puts. These trades will be of 2-4 weeks duration approximately (the duration will completely depend on the trend).
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vinay28
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| Post: #362 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 8:33 pm Post subject: |
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| ST, just for the sake of trying out what I posted earlier, I would take a small short position if rank goes to 90-100% now. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #363 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | ST, just for the sake of trying out what I posted earlier, I would take a small short position if rank goes to 90-100% now. |
ok. I am also going to follow it closely, and as I said your idea could be a more clear cut signal that the gymnastics that I am doing.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Pats
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| Post: #364 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:57 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (25.09.2013)
No breakdown yet, uptrend holding for now. OTM PCR rank has not changed much today. I will continue to watch 60 mins chart for a breakdown below 5815 on a daily closing basis. The price could take support anywhere in the gap below this level but I will still take a bearish stance below this level. At that point I will be closing my longs and will take on ITM oct puts. These trades will be of 2-4 weeks duration approximately (the duration will completely depend on the trend). |
Closely watching this thread for your actual ITM PCR-based trade, 'cuase I myself some-how trying to adjust the actual trade results on consistent basis ( atleast 60% success ratio ) !
I know it will take-a-while may be a few mnths, for a permenent tradable system ! |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #365 Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Pats wrote: |
Closely watching this thread for your actual ITM PCR-based trade, 'cuase I myself some-how trying to adjust the actual trade results on consistent basis ( atleast 60% success ratio ) !
I know it will take-a-while may be a few mnths, for a permenent tradable system ! |
Sure. Please do understand that these are test trades that I am doing here. I am myself testing these ideas with single lots. Of course, I have done six trades based on OTM PCR but this is still in testing mode.
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| Post: #366 Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (26.09.2013)
No bearish signal, uptrend still holding. Tomorrow's data will move it a bit as today's data drops off from the chart. I think uptrend will still hold unless price breaks down.
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vinay28
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| Post: #367 Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:16 pm Post subject: |
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hmmm, not there yet. ST, you will notice that the rank hovers predominently above 50% when nifty is in in multi-month downtrend and viceversa.
Sorry to trouble you, I am just wondering whether standard deviation from 50% plotted vs. nifty can give any idea.
Last edited by vinay28 on Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:57 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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| Post: #368 Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:43 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (26.09.2013)
No bearish signal, uptrend still holding. Tomorrow's data will move it a bit as today's data drops off from the chart. I think uptrend will still hold unless price breaks down. |
Thnks ST !
Although I am short in Nifty as per my analysis and understanding of the market, but still I have also inititated long trade in Nifty ( 2 lots Oct-CEs ) from last 3-days, as your per your postings "No bearish signal, uptrend still holding.".
My 2-cents for the cause of your hard and honest efforts for the PCR-based system !
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #369 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:47 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | hmmm, not there yet. ST, you will notice that the rank hovers predominently above 50% when nifty is in in multi-month downtrend and viceversa.
Sorry to trouble you, I am just wondering whether standard deviation from 50% plotted vs. nifty can give any idea. |
I had tried that earlier too (stdev from 50%), the chart visually looks almost exactly the same as the current one. After all trials & errors I have settled down on this one because it oscillates between +/-100% so atleast we get an idea of how extreme the readings are.
Let us continue this exercise for a while and see how it goes.
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vinay28
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| Post: #370 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| ok ST, thanks |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #371 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Pats wrote: |
Thnks ST !
Although I am short in Nifty as per my analysis and understanding of the market, but still I have also inititated long trade in Nifty ( 2 lots Oct-CEs ) from last 3-days, as your per your postings "No bearish signal, uptrend still holding.".
My 2-cents for the cause of your hard and honest efforts for the PCR-based system !
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Ok  I guess it is fine as long as we don't get a bearish signal. I was holding ITM SEP CE for testing since 5th Sep (the OTM PCR indicated a bullish shift on 2nd and price broke above resistance on 5th which is when I had bought ITM CE). I closed those yesterday and did not rollover to Oct.
Just to give you the background (if you have not gone through earlier content in this thread), I had used options sentiment signals (a different version of the OTM PCR chart) last year and it worked continuously for 7-8 trades but failed in mid 2012. I stopped posting the chart, went back and thoroughly reworked the signal triggers and realized my mistake. I was using standard deviation trigger bands that were too close to the sentiment line. The current chart keeps the extreme bands far apart (but still dynamically adjusted based on recent options sentiment) which really indicates extremes and so are much more better. The signal triggers are totally different now but more subjective than before. There are no hard triggers but clear guidelines with price itself being the final trade trigger.
Stay tuned...hopefully something better will come out of this (it better come out as I have spent almost 2 yrs working/testing/trading on this )
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Pats
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| Post: #372 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: |
...
~snip~
Stay tuned...hopefully something better will come out of this (it better come out as I have spent almost 2 yrs working/testing/trading on this ) |
Hi ST,
Feedback:
Today in the early trade, I booked 14x100 pts profit, in the Oct-CEs, which I had initiated 4-days back ! Thnks !
As I always try to book profit while testing any new system, by instinct I booked the profits. Good start, Better Journey ahead!
But, I know, this is not the actual way of testing - i.e. w/o any sell-signal. So again initiated long trade by buying the same Oct-CEs at lower levels.
Hope, such kind of practical feedbacks may encourage to refine the PCR-based system towards more accuracy !
Best Luck ! |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #373 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:12 pm Post subject: |
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| Pats wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: |
...
~snip~
Stay tuned...hopefully something better will come out of this (it better come out as I have spent almost 2 yrs working/testing/trading on this ) |
Hi ST,
Feedback:
...
...
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You are free to post feedback on the stuff I am discussing here and ask questions about it too. If you wish to post your trades based on your own strategy, please do it in your own thread in "Trading Journals".
Thanks for understanding.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #374 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (27.09.2013)
Uptrend continues to hold, OTM PCR hasn't changed much today. It may not take much more time now, either way we will probably know soon.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Pats
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| Post: #375 Posted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:36 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | Pats wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: |
...
~snip~
Stay tuned...hopefully something better will come out of this (it better come out as I have spent almost 2 yrs working/testing/trading on this ) |
Hi ST,
Feedback:
...
...
|
You are free to post feedback on the stuff I am discussing here and ask questions about it too. If you wish to post your trades based on your own strategy, please do it in your own thread in "Trading Journals".
Thanks for understanding. |
The long trade initiated and booked profit by me was based on your PCR-based system only, but if you do not like any trades and it's results ( on your own PCR-based system ) discussed here, so be it !
It wo'nt happen again !
Thnks and bye !
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