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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
amitagg
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Post: #391   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks. Just a point that at various points in chart, it appears that consistent downtrend develops after the rank hits 90% and when it starts to rise at 70% etc...the market may still move up as u are also suggesting that 5960 [5965 being 61.8% of entire fall] is resistance / upwsing pivot.

So it implies that we should add puts or short the market on rise till 5960 and not necessarily short on falls or break of daily lows or 50% previous days range. Brief comments shall be great

thanks
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yashrahul
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Post: #392   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nice...... Smile
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vinay28
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Post: #393   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Updated OTM PCR Rank (01.10.2013)

Not much change in OTM PCR rank. Things remain bearish. I would be worried only on a price breakout above 5960.


ST, looking at the rank graph more critically, I find that action should be taken the moment it crosses over 80% (short cover or buy) or below 20% (long cover or short) the first time and then increase lots gradually, if trade seems to be in favour. I find that once it crosses over/below 80/20%, it is always in favour later. Pl check.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #394   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
Thanks. Just a point that at various points in chart, it appears that consistent downtrend develops after the rank hits 90% and when it starts to rise at 70% etc...the market may still move up as u are also suggesting that 5960 [5965 being 61.8% of entire fall] is resistance / upwsing pivot.

So it implies that we should add puts or short the market on rise till 5960 and not necessarily short on falls or break of daily lows or 50% previous days range. Brief comments shall be great

thanks


I think 80% (bearish) & 20% (bullish) (as vinay points out below) seems to be the optimal entry points given the short history we have of this indicator (I don't have more data to generate older charts to analyze more). I use this indicator as a guideline and once I see a clear shift in the balance I let the price dictate the move after that. This has worked better for me OR maybe this is how I feel comfortable. BTW the 5960 level is just the nearest clear resistance on 60 mins chart above CMP, that is why I have selected this level.

Adding to position is very individual specific, I guess one will have to decide based on our own risk tolerence.

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SwingTrader
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Post: #395   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:

ST, looking at the rank graph more critically, I find that action should be taken the moment it crosses over 80% (short cover or buy) or below 20% (long cover or short) the first time and then increase lots gradually, if trade seems to be in favour. I find that once it crosses over/below 80/20%, it is always in favour later. Pl check.


You are right. 80-20 seem to be the levels to watch. I have stayed away from fixing any entry levels (based on the indicator itself) because of the mistakes I made earlier analyzing "options sentiment" chart which used fixed entry points (standard deviation bands as signal triggers). I am going to stick to price itself once the sentiment shift is clear using this indicator. But I agree, 80-20 still are the levels to watch closely.

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vinay28
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Post: #396   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

let me see. I will take a small trade that way and check.
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amitagg
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Post: #397   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Vinay and ST

Please keep updating I) when it hits 80 percent (and II) Vinay since u say "add on" when price falls (trend following) or supports the likely fall in price (upon above 80 percent move))

So just hoping for actual trade setups throwing up and we also testing to some extent

Regards
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SwingTrader
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Post: #398   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is 2011 OTM PCR chart, this should help further in analyzing optimal entry levels.
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vinay28
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Post: #399   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Here is 2011 OTM PCR chart, this should help further in analyzing optimal entry levels.


thanks ST, all the more convinced. Smile

however, it means you have to post this every day. I guess just posting the rank every day is enough, if you don't get time.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #400   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:

thanks ST, all the more convinced. Smile

however, it means you have to post this every day. I guess just posting the rank every day is enough, if you don't get time.


I anyway update the chart daily for my trading, I will post it here.

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yashrahul
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Post: #401   PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is nice to see such constructive and precise pointing of levels,along with it healthy discussion by experts to find the best possible trade for all,i am all ears (we are not exactly talking hence.... and eyes..... Smile ) for both of you Vinay and Swing Trader,keep it up,thanks.
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amitagg
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Post: #402   PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay , 5960 level mentioned by ST is spot or future level
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vinay28
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Post: #403   PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
Vinay , 5960 level mentioned by ST is spot or future level


ST's levels are always fut
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amitagg
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Post: #404   PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

so as per him this point would decide which way to go...lets wait for the chart
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vinay28
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Post: #405   PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
so as per him this point would decide which way to go...lets wait for the chart


last 60tf closed at 5959! Smile
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