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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #391 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:33 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks. Just a point that at various points in chart, it appears that consistent downtrend develops after the rank hits 90% and when it starts to rise at 70% etc...the market may still move up as u are also suggesting that 5960 [5965 being 61.8% of entire fall] is resistance / upwsing pivot.
So it implies that we should add puts or short the market on rise till 5960 and not necessarily short on falls or break of daily lows or 50% previous days range. Brief comments shall be great
thanks |
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yashrahul Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512
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Post: #392 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:12 pm Post subject: |
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nice...... |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #393 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank (01.10.2013)
Not much change in OTM PCR rank. Things remain bearish. I would be worried only on a price breakout above 5960. |
ST, looking at the rank graph more critically, I find that action should be taken the moment it crosses over 80% (short cover or buy) or below 20% (long cover or short) the first time and then increase lots gradually, if trade seems to be in favour. I find that once it crosses over/below 80/20%, it is always in favour later. Pl check. |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #394 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | Thanks. Just a point that at various points in chart, it appears that consistent downtrend develops after the rank hits 90% and when it starts to rise at 70% etc...the market may still move up as u are also suggesting that 5960 [5965 being 61.8% of entire fall] is resistance / upwsing pivot.
So it implies that we should add puts or short the market on rise till 5960 and not necessarily short on falls or break of daily lows or 50% previous days range. Brief comments shall be great
thanks |
I think 80% (bearish) & 20% (bullish) (as vinay points out below) seems to be the optimal entry points given the short history we have of this indicator (I don't have more data to generate older charts to analyze more). I use this indicator as a guideline and once I see a clear shift in the balance I let the price dictate the move after that. This has worked better for me OR maybe this is how I feel comfortable. BTW the 5960 level is just the nearest clear resistance on 60 mins chart above CMP, that is why I have selected this level.
Adding to position is very individual specific, I guess one will have to decide based on our own risk tolerence. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #395 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:20 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: |
ST, looking at the rank graph more critically, I find that action should be taken the moment it crosses over 80% (short cover or buy) or below 20% (long cover or short) the first time and then increase lots gradually, if trade seems to be in favour. I find that once it crosses over/below 80/20%, it is always in favour later. Pl check. |
You are right. 80-20 seem to be the levels to watch. I have stayed away from fixing any entry levels (based on the indicator itself) because of the mistakes I made earlier analyzing "options sentiment" chart which used fixed entry points (standard deviation bands as signal triggers). I am going to stick to price itself once the sentiment shift is clear using this indicator. But I agree, 80-20 still are the levels to watch closely. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #396 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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let me see. I will take a small trade that way and check. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #397 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks Vinay and ST
Please keep updating I) when it hits 80 percent (and II) Vinay since u say "add on" when price falls (trend following) or supports the likely fall in price (upon above 80 percent move))
So just hoping for actual trade setups throwing up and we also testing to some extent
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #398 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:38 pm Post subject: |
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Here is 2011 OTM PCR chart, this should help further in analyzing optimal entry levels. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #399 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 8:13 pm Post subject: |
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SwingTrader wrote: | Here is 2011 OTM PCR chart, this should help further in analyzing optimal entry levels. |
thanks ST, all the more convinced.
however, it means you have to post this every day. I guess just posting the rank every day is enough, if you don't get time. |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #400 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:50 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: |
thanks ST, all the more convinced.
however, it means you have to post this every day. I guess just posting the rank every day is enough, if you don't get time. |
I anyway update the chart daily for my trading, I will post it here. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
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yashrahul Yellow Belt
Joined: 29 Jun 2013 Posts: 512
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Post: #401 Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:28 pm Post subject: |
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It is nice to see such constructive and precise pointing of levels,along with it healthy discussion by experts to find the best possible trade for all,i am all ears (we are not exactly talking hence.... and eyes..... ) for both of you Vinay and Swing Trader,keep it up,thanks. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #402 Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:53 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay , 5960 level mentioned by ST is spot or future level |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #403 Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | Vinay , 5960 level mentioned by ST is spot or future level |
ST's levels are always fut |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #404 Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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so as per him this point would decide which way to go...lets wait for the chart |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #405 Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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amitagg wrote: | so as per him this point would decide which way to go...lets wait for the chart |
last 60tf closed at 5959! |
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