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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #421   PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Here you go...found it, updated it. I am posting both the raw PE/CE avg premium and also the "rank" chart of the avg.


rank hovering below average so long position holds.
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amitagg
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Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559

Post: #422   PostPosted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure whether i am reading it right, but it appears that rank should be over 40% [not currently] for a more than 200-300 points fall....and average also above 0.9 or so for a sustained downtrend [which also is not the case]...

that is while the downtrend [if at all for intermediate term may have started as per your breath charts - i.e. Nifty may not move above 6142 otherwise counts will be revisited]

but some days / weeks may be there for more downside....and then too we would revisit based on charts at that point of time.....

all in all, it appears that your system is very very robust....that is it is capturing an intermediate top even before confirmation of price trend [that is IF IF market does not move about 6142 etc.]]

so also i like your timing, that u shall "hedge" when first major resistance breached...unlike many retail traders who shall have longs much before chart confirmation if market breaches 5960.....

thats only my view....
thanks and regards
Amit
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #423   PostPosted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (08.10.2013)

Nothing much to say....utrend just holding together. Not much change in OTM PCR rank.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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Location: Hyderabad, India

Post: #424   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated OTM PCR Rank & NF 60 mins charts (09.10.2013)

I converted my position to a put bull spread today (sold the 6300 put). Looking at OTM PCR now it was the right decision. Uptrend has re-asserted itself and OTM PCR rank is back at bullish extreme. I will now convert the spread back to a bearish position once the OTM PCR rank goes above 50% and a key support breaks again.

Looking at the 60 mins NF chart it looks like I should have waited for a break below the gap which was close and a stronger support. But that is just hindsight now and this is just something to keep in mind for the next time - to look for stronger supports to break especially if they are nearby.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #425   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

indeed ST. As I posted a few days ago, it is hovering in lower half. May be you will get a patent soon. Smile
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SwingTrader
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Post: #426   PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
indeed ST. As I posted a few days ago, it is hovering in lower half. May be you will get a patent soon. Smile


Yes, true, you had mentioned that. Your idea of waiting for 80% also is probably wiser one.

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vinay28
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Post: #427   PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. Smile
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SwingTrader
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Post: #428   PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. Smile


I was planning to post it every friday (was going to post tomm). If you want it now itself, let me know, I will post it.

Very Happy

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Post: #429   PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (10.10.2013)

Uptrend continues. Not much change in OTM PCR Rank. Thank God! I thought now that I am in a bullish trade the market will turn down Very Happy

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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Post: #430   PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
vinay28 wrote:
ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. Smile


I was planning to post it every friday (was going to post tomm). If you want it now itself, let me know, I will post it.

Very Happy


no, tmrw is fine, thanks ST.
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vinay28
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Post: #431   PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (10.10.2013)

Uptrend continues. Not much change in OTM PCR Rank. Thank God! I thought now that I am in a bullish trade the market will turn down Very Happy


hmmm, rank near zero now. looks like slam blam ...... Smile
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SwingTrader
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Post: #432   PostPosted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated OTM PCR rank and Market Breadth charts (11.10.2013)

OTM PCR rank has gone up a bit. OTM option OIs indicate OTM call positions increasing much more than increase in OTM put positions. How significant this is we will know only next week. For now the move up in OTM PCR is not significant.

Long term breadth finally wakes up and starts to move up fast. This is encouraging for long term positions. Let us see how it holds up.

Things are very overbought. Both short & intermediate term breadth at extreme. Longs just need to be a bit careful.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Post: #433   PostPosted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (14.10.2013)

Uptrend remains healthy. Nothing more to say at this point.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
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Post: #434   PostPosted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

how about today?
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SwingTrader
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Post: #435   PostPosted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
how about today?


Here you go...

Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (15.10.2013)

Significant change in OTM options OIs but not enough to change the balance. Will have to watch carefully from now. Once PCR rank moves above 50% I will again start looking for price breakdowns to initiate shorts.

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