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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #421 Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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SwingTrader wrote: | Here you go...found it, updated it. I am posting both the raw PE/CE avg premium and also the "rank" chart of the avg. |
rank hovering below average so long position holds. |
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amitagg Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559
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Post: #422 Posted: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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Not sure whether i am reading it right, but it appears that rank should be over 40% [not currently] for a more than 200-300 points fall....and average also above 0.9 or so for a sustained downtrend [which also is not the case]...
that is while the downtrend [if at all for intermediate term may have started as per your breath charts - i.e. Nifty may not move above 6142 otherwise counts will be revisited]
but some days / weeks may be there for more downside....and then too we would revisit based on charts at that point of time.....
all in all, it appears that your system is very very robust....that is it is capturing an intermediate top even before confirmation of price trend [that is IF IF market does not move about 6142 etc.]]
so also i like your timing, that u shall "hedge" when first major resistance breached...unlike many retail traders who shall have longs much before chart confirmation if market breaches 5960.....
thats only my view....
thanks and regards
Amit |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #423 Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:11 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (08.10.2013)
Nothing much to say....utrend just holding together. Not much change in OTM PCR rank. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #424 Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank & NF 60 mins charts (09.10.2013)
I converted my position to a put bull spread today (sold the 6300 put). Looking at OTM PCR now it was the right decision. Uptrend has re-asserted itself and OTM PCR rank is back at bullish extreme. I will now convert the spread back to a bearish position once the OTM PCR rank goes above 50% and a key support breaks again.
Looking at the 60 mins NF chart it looks like I should have waited for a break below the gap which was close and a stronger support. But that is just hindsight now and this is just something to keep in mind for the next time - to look for stronger supports to break especially if they are nearby. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #425 Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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indeed ST. As I posted a few days ago, it is hovering in lower half. May be you will get a patent soon. |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #426 Posted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | indeed ST. As I posted a few days ago, it is hovering in lower half. May be you will get a patent soon. |
Yes, true, you had mentioned that. Your idea of waiting for 80% also is probably wiser one. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #427 Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:59 am Post subject: |
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ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #428 Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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vinay28 wrote: | ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. |
I was planning to post it every friday (was going to post tomm). If you want it now itself, let me know, I will post it.
_________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #429 Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (10.10.2013)
Uptrend continues. Not much change in OTM PCR Rank. Thank God! I thought now that I am in a bullish trade the market will turn down _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #430 Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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SwingTrader wrote: | vinay28 wrote: | ST, you haven't posted long term chart since 4/10. let's not miss the moon while we count the stars. |
I was planning to post it every friday (was going to post tomm). If you want it now itself, let me know, I will post it.
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no, tmrw is fine, thanks ST. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #431 Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (10.10.2013)
Uptrend continues. Not much change in OTM PCR Rank. Thank God! I thought now that I am in a bullish trade the market will turn down |
hmmm, rank near zero now. looks like slam blam ...... |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #432 Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR rank and Market Breadth charts (11.10.2013)
OTM PCR rank has gone up a bit. OTM option OIs indicate OTM call positions increasing much more than increase in OTM put positions. How significant this is we will know only next week. For now the move up in OTM PCR is not significant.
Long term breadth finally wakes up and starts to move up fast. This is encouraging for long term positions. Let us see how it holds up.
Things are very overbought. Both short & intermediate term breadth at extreme. Longs just need to be a bit careful. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #433 Posted: Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:13 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (14.10.2013)
Uptrend remains healthy. Nothing more to say at this point. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #434 Posted: Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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how about today? |
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SwingTrader Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 2903 Location: Hyderabad, India
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Post: #435 Posted: Wed Oct 16, 2013 8:57 am Post subject: |
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apka wrote: | how about today? |
Here you go...
Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (15.10.2013)
Significant change in OTM options OIs but not enough to change the balance. Will have to watch carefully from now. Once PCR rank moves above 50% I will again start looking for price breakdowns to initiate shorts. _________________ Srikanth Kurdukar
@SwingTrader |
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