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SwingTrader
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Post: #436  Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:56 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (17.10.2013)
Still below 50%, some more time to go...
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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| Post: #437 Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated OTM PCR Rank chart (17.10.2013)
Still below 50%, some more time to go... |
ST, IMHO, you should wait till it crosses 80% (at least 70%) and add more qty if it remains above 50% next day. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #438 Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
ST, IMHO, you should wait till it crosses 80% (at least 70%) and add more qty if it remains above 50% next day. |
I am not going to initiate a bearish trade as soon as it rises above 50%, I will just start watching price action more carefully once it rises above 50%.
And yes, this time I will watch for 80% level too.
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vinay28
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| Post: #439 Posted: Thu Oct 17, 2013 8:00 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
ST, IMHO, you should wait till it crosses 80% (at least 70%) and add more qty if it remains above 50% next day. |
I am not going to initiate a bearish trade as soon as it rises above 50%, I will just start watching price action more carefully once it rises above 50%.
And yes, this time I will watch for 80% level too. |
oh ok |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #440 Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:45 am Post subject: |
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Updated NSE OTM PCR & Market Breadth charts (18.10.2013)
Uptrend continues....OTM PCR and short & intermediate near bullish extremes. Long term breadth too steadily increasing.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #441 Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:18 pm Post subject: |
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NSE OTM PCR Rank chart (21.10.2013)
Not even a hint of change yet. Uptrend continues...
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bharatpatel
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| Post: #442 Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:07 pm Post subject: hi |
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Dear Sir,
Good Job. Please continue.
Hope for fruitful Out put considering your hard work.
Regards. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #443 Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:51 am Post subject: |
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| ya, still hovering in lower half. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #444 Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:06 pm Post subject: |
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NSE OTM PCR rank is 17.70% vs yesterday's 19.30%, so no change in the uptrend status. I will post chart once there is a major change. Until then will enjoy the uptrend until it lasts.
Even though I am just testing these signals using a tiny position, glad to note that my 100+ point loss in the short position (from the Sep 30th failed short signal) has been wiped out now. In any case, this position is just to test the signals and not to look at adjusting positions to force a profit. I will continue to trade a straight call/put to test out the signals for the next series of few signals.
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| Post: #445 Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:19 pm Post subject: |
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Here is a chart of NIFTY to BANKNIFTY price ratio. The ratio is around levels that we had last seen at 2011 end market bottom. So are we going to see a major breakout now? or is this just meaningless?
Please post opinions...
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vinay28
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| Post: #446 Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:31 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Here is a chart of NIFTY to BANKNIFTY price ratio. The ratio is around levels that we had last seen at 2011 end market bottom. So are we going to see a major breakout now? or is this just meaningless?
Please post opinions... |
ST, it seems sonsistent that when this ratio is near/at 100%, nifty goes up and vice versa. But I would be cautious in concluding anything for a few reasons
(a) as your chart shows, shape of the graph of ratio is quite different from that of nifty,
(b) the constituents of nifty have changed, particularly after wipro got added. e.g. the ratio of nifty to sensex was constant around 3.33 for years but recently has become 3.34. This may look insignificant until one notices that sensex made a 3 year high yesterday but not nifty. There are many such example of disconnect in recent times,
(c) similarly BN made an all time high early this year but nifty missed by about 3%, and
(d) nifty is comprised of multiple sectors, which perform differentlly in different years, particularly because of their inherent cycles as well as due to global developments. e.g. just check out which sectors have gained a lot as compared to others in nifty scrips during the highs of 2008, 2011 and this year and you will notice vast variance.
The above are just a few quick thoughts as a quick response. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #447 Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | Here is a chart of NIFTY to BANKNIFTY price ratio. The ratio is around levels that we had last seen at 2011 end market bottom. So are we going to see a major breakout now? or is this just meaningless?
Please post opinions... |
ST, it seems sonsistent that when this ratio is near/at 100%, nifty goes up and vice versa. But I would be cautious in concluding anything for a few reasons
(a) as your chart shows, shape of the graph of ratio is quite different from that of nifty,
(b) the constituents of nifty have changed, particularly after wipro got added. e.g. the ratio of nifty to sensex was constant around 3.33 for years but recently has become 3.34. This may look insignificant until one notices that sensex made a 3 year high yesterday but not nifty. There are many such example of disconnect in recent times,
(c) similarly BN made an all time high early this year but nifty missed by about 3%, and
(d) nifty is comprised of multiple sectors, which perform differentlly in different years, particularly because of their inherent cycles as well as due to global developments. e.g. just check out which sectors have gained a lot as compared to others in nifty scrips during the highs of 2008, 2011 and this year and you will notice vast variance.
The above are just a few quick thoughts as a quick response. |
I think your points (b) & (d) are extremely important and makes this chart more or less meaningless. I have been thinking about these points while looking at this chart these past few days and your thoughts on this confirm that probably this analysis doesn't make sense.
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vinay28
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| Post: #448 Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:15 am Post subject: |
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ST, don't abandon the baby so quickly. 
I feel that when nifty does react sharply in future, banknifty will outperform it i.e. fall much less. So, let's track this, say, every week, if you have the time and patience, till such a fall occurs. I do doubt though since we are comparing nifty with only one of its constituents. To add to it, BN's weightage has dropped a lot since Jan. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #449 Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:49 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | ST, don't abandon the baby so quickly.
I feel that when nifty does react sharply in future, banknifty will outperform it i.e. fall much less. So, let's track this, say, every week, if you have the time and patience, till such a fall occurs. I do doubt though since we are comparing nifty with only one of its constituents. To add to it, BN's weightage has dropped a lot since Jan. |
 Yes...I will keep an eye on it but what you have highlighted are very key points. Let us see...
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| Post: #450 Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:41 pm Post subject: |
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NF OTM PCR rank at 32.3%, it will get interesting only after it crosses above 50%.
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