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SwingTrader
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Post: #451  Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 5:49 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
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| Post: #452 Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today. |
Indicating further upside or downside? I need to re-read your conversation with Vinay, I am confused. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #453 Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today. |
Indicating further upside or downside? I need to re-read your conversation with Vinay, I am confused. |
Basically, above 50% it will get bearish (below 50% is bullish). Once it gets above 50% I will start watching for key supports getting broken to initiate bearish position.
Vinay's idea is to wait until 70-80% to get bearish. I will be closely watching this level too as it looks important based on the previous moves.
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vinay28
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| Post: #454 Posted: Thu Oct 24, 2013 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today. |
I am sure both days it must have crossed above 50% intraday before falling late in the day after a rally. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #455 Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:52 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today. |
I am sure both days it must have crossed above 50% intraday before falling late in the day after a rally. |
It doesn't matter if it goes above 50% intraday, EOD values are far more important for positional trading. Even after it goes above 50% it still has to break a key support for me to turn bearish. Still some more time to go for that to happen.
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vinay28
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| Post: #456 Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank (24.10.2013)
Getting near to the 50% mark. OTM PCR rank at 48% today. |
I am sure both days it must have crossed above 50% intraday before falling late in the day after a rally. |
It doesn't matter if it goes above 50% intraday, EOD values are far more important for positional trading. Even after it goes above 50% it still has to break a key support for me to turn bearish. Still some more time to go for that to happen. |
oh yes ST, I wasn't suggesting to trade but just that it seems to be reversing. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #457 Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2013 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
oh yes ST, I wasn't suggesting to trade but just that it seems to be reversing. |
Oh! ok, got it. You mean intraday moves of OTM PCR rank above 50% would probably indicate weakness creeping into the uptrend.
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ca.krishna
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| Post: #458 Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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ST....Updated NSE OTM PCR & Market Breadth charts on 25.10.2013 please...
| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
oh yes ST, I wasn't suggesting to trade but just that it seems to be reversing. |
Oh! ok, got it. You mean intraday moves of OTM PCR rank above 50% would probably indicate weakness creeping into the uptrend. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #459 Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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| ca.krishna wrote: | ST....Updated NSE OTM PCR & Market Breadth charts on 25.10.2013 please...
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Updated NF OTM PCR rank & Market Breadth charts (25.10.2013)
OTM PCR now above 50%, balance has shifted. I will be watching for price support breakdown to initiate bearish position. Also watch for 70%-80% level, as Vinay had suggested, which would indicate a more clearer shift of OI balance.
Short term market breadth has turned down sharply, the extent to which short term breadth goes down will be important for subsequent up move. Intermediate term breadth could turn down if we see another day or two of sideways to down movement.
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vinay28
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| Post: #460 Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR rank & Market Breadth charts (25.10.2013)
OTM PCR now above 50%, balance has shifted. I will be watching for price support breakdown to initiate bearish position. Also watch for 70%-80% level, as Vinay had suggested, which would indicate a more clearer shift of OI balance.
Short term market breadth has turned down sharply, the extent to which short term breadth goes down will be important for subsequent up move. Intermediate term breadth could turn down if we see another day or two of sideways to down movement. |
ST, short term chart seems to be resemble pcr rank to quite an extent except in opposite manner e.g. short signal seems to come when it goes below 0% just as it seems to come when rank goes above 80%. |
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yashrahul
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| Post: #461 Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader: Does this mean that when the NF OTM PCR Rank crosses 80% and the SHORT TERM Breadth goes below zero we can say the trend have changed..you have written in one of your posts that even if NF OTM PCR rank goes above 50% you still wanted it to break a key support to turn bearish....could you please specify what is the key support that you want to get broken to be bearish. |
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yashrahul
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| Post: #462 Posted: Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Swing trader: is 80% too high for the NF OTM PCR rank or we can say 60% and above can be considered as the time to start turning bearish..one thing is better that ur charts are self explanatory too a large extent and as can be seen from the chart which you have given from 2011-2013... 80% looks a little extreme comparatively to say 60% or 70%..so is it always necessary for it to go above 80% or we can turn bearish as it maintains above 60%. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #463 Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:00 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
ST, short term chart seems to be resemble pcr rank to quite an extent except in opposite manner e.g. short signal seems to come when it goes below 0% just as it seems to come when rank goes above 80%. |
Hmm...didn't observe that. Will look at both charts closely and see...
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #464 Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | SwingTrader: Does this mean that when the NF OTM PCR Rank crosses 80% and the SHORT TERM Breadth goes below zero we can say the trend have changed..you have written in one of your posts that even if NF OTM PCR rank goes above 50% you still wanted it to break a key support to turn bearish....could you please specify what is the key support that you want to get broken to be bearish. |
Now that rank is above 50%, I am looking for a daily close below 6060 on NF to initiate a bearish trade. I am not looking at confirmation from breadth at the moment because I am doing these trades to test the NF OTM PCR rank signals.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #465 Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:35 am Post subject: |
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| yashrahul wrote: | | Swing trader: is 80% too high for the NF OTM PCR rank or we can say 60% and above can be considered as the time to start turning bearish..one thing is better that ur charts are self explanatory too a large extent and as can be seen from the chart which you have given from 2011-2013... 80% looks a little extreme comparatively to say 60% or 70%..so is it always necessary for it to go above 80% or we can turn bearish as it maintains above 60%. |
The exact level to turn bearish is difficult to decide. If you look at the Feb/Mar/Apr 2012 and Jun-to-Dec 2012 periods the NF OTM PCR rank oscillated wildly above and below 50% reaching highs of 70-80% and lows of 30-20% often. For this reason I rely on key supports/resistances after the rank goes above/below 50%. 50% level is where the OI balance changes from bullish to bearish and vice versa. Now once the balance changes and if we are to see a price reversal then price will have to prove itself by breaking sup/res. I am then willing to bet on the reversal as a good stop loss level would be close in such cases as it happened recently when I made a mistake by selecting a weak support (30th Sep short trade) but was able to reverse the position and profit from it.
I would say instead of deciding on a level to get bearish, it would be best to let price dictate what should be done. That said, once rank goes above 70-80% there is a high probability that reversal has happened.
I hope this makes it a bit more clearer. Sorry if I have confused you further.
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