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Market Sentiment
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yashrahul
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Joined: 29 Jun 2013
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Post: #466   PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader: u have evaded what i had asked for with some smart explanation but as you said you have made it a bit clearer and you have not confused me further...so i got what you meant
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SwingTrader
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Post: #467   PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yashrahul wrote:
SwingTrader: u have evaded what i had asked for with some smart explanation but as you said you have made it a bit clearer and you have not confused me further...so i got what you meant


Yashrahul,

Which question did I evade? About the support level? I answered about it below in reply to your question about it. The support level I am looking at is 6060.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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yashrahul
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Post: #468   PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2013 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
yashrahul wrote:
SwingTrader: u have evaded what i had asked for with some smart explanation but as you said you have made it a bit clearer and you have not confused me further...so i got what you meant


Yashrahul,

Which question did I evade? About the support level? I answered about it below in reply to your question about it. The support level I am looking at is 6060.


SwingTrader:Sorry, my mistake , i missed it totally and read the next answer..now i have seen it 6060 on NF to initiate a bearish trade...got the level....thanks.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #469   PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR rank chart (28.10.2013)

The rank has almost hit 80%, it is current at 78%. This more or less clearly indicates a major shift of OI balance to bearish.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
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Post: #470   PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR rank chart (28.10.2013)

The rank has almost hit 80%, it is current at 78%. This more or less clearly indicates a major shift of OI balance to bearish.


One thought (and not an advice) is to short tmrw after open and cover on wednesday if it breaches 20% eod tmrw. Otherwise carry.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #471   PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR chart (29.10.2013)

Nice rally but I am not impressed yet. I will be impressed if today's rally has an equally impressive follow through in the next 2-3 days and OTM PCR rank manages to fall below 20-30%. Until then I am still looking to short on a close below 6060*. OTM PCR rank is still above 50% which means overall OI is neutral to bearish. Of course, tomorrow's price move will be interesting to look at.

* 6060 level on NF is valid sup level only until this expiry. After that I will be looking at 6030 on Nifty spot as the sup level to break for a short position (this is until this signal gets negated by OTM PCR rank falling below 20-30% and price closing above recent high - 6256 on spot).

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apka
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Post: #472   PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At month's end most of the build up OI will vanish and next month will have lower OI to start with.. wshould such OI volume shift be considered in deciding?
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vinay28
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Post: #473   PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

apka wrote:
At month's end most of the build up OI will vanish and next month will have lower OI to start with.. wshould such OI volume shift be considered in deciding?


I think ST considers OI of OTM options for all contracts including future motnhs.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #474   PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I am taking OI of all available months.

But apka's question does raise a valid point. This is especially true in the last few days before expiry. Since OI in the current month is usually the highest, the indicator will have a bias in favor of the direction indicated by current month's OI. During the last few days this will matter the most as OI balance will suddenly change a day after expiry.

I am not sure what to do about this. I guess I will just have to be careful in taking a decision based on this indicator in the last few days before expiry. I hope it will be okay since I take the final decision based on price action itself.

Let us see...

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apka
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Post: #475   PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ya.. let's see 31st Oct and 1st Nov will be interesting
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SwingTrader
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Post: #476   PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (30.10.2013)

Rank continues to stay above 50% (currently at 57%).

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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acharyams
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Post: #477   PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Till now your reading is favouring short as the rank is above 50%. Am I right?
SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (30.10.2013)

Rank continues to stay above 50% (currently at 57%).
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SwingTrader
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Post: #478   PostPosted: Wed Oct 30, 2013 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

acharyams wrote:
Till now your reading is favouring short as the rank is above 50%. Am I right?
SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (30.10.2013)

Rank continues to stay above 50% (currently at 57%).


Yes, a reading above 50% indicates that OI bias is towards a decline. I would not short until we get a break below a significant support (a daily close is required).

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manojkr78
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Post: #479   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST,

Has the price confirmation for breakdown moved a bit up or still remains @ 6030 spot....
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SwingTrader
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Post: #480   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

manojkr78 wrote:
ST,

Has the price confirmation for breakdown moved a bit up or still remains @ 6030 spot....


Given the strong uptrend, I am still going to stick with 6030 on spot as the support to watch for a break.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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