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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
manojkr78
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Post: #481   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok
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SwingTrader
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Post: #482   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (31.10.2013)

Rank at 49.70%. I checked the rank by removing this expiry's data, the rank computes to 49.13%. I have done this check for previous expiries too and it checks out fine. I am satisfied with my computations and will continue to use the indicator for testing its signals.

Apka, thanks for the pointer yesterday. This made me check the indicator more thoroughly.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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Post: #483   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (31.10.2013)

Rank at 49.70%. I checked the rank by removing this expiry's data, the rank computes to 49.13%. I have done this check for previous expiries too and it checks out fine. I am satisfied with my computations and will continue to use the indicator for testing its signals.

Apka, thanks for the pointer yesterday. This made me check the indicator more thoroughly.


ST, tmrw may just be the "D" day since rank didn't fall in spite of rise in nifty. Hasn't your pivot got raised?


Last edited by vinay28 on Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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SwingTrader
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Post: #484   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:

ST, tmrw may just be the "D" day since rank didn't fall in spite of rise in nifty. Hasn't your pivot has got raised?


Raising the key support level to 6080 on NIFTY SPOT. I will be watching this level for a break.

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vinay28
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Post: #485   PostPosted: Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
vinay28 wrote:

ST, tmrw may just be the "D" day since rank didn't fall in spite of rise in nifty. Hasn't your pivot has got raised?


Raising the key support level to 6080 on NIFTY SPOT. I will be watching this level for a break.


yep
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apka
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Post: #486   PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

great ST Smile
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amitagg
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Post: #487   PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi
Pls update strategy 'action'. Your very timely selling 6300 put closed bang on target.
Now what? Since bullish is still not negated, what action for Nov...till 6080 etc is done below
Warm regards
Amit
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SwingTrader
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Post: #488   PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR rank & Market breadth charts (01.11.2013)

Bearish setup negated. I will now wait for 50% level to be breached again and then look for a nearby key support to break to initiate a bearish trade. Until then enjoy the uptrend.

Long term market breadth now above zero. This is important. If the current uptrend is going to sustain then we will see a correction in the near future. If long term breadth around zero (does not go down too much below zero) during this correction, we could see the uptrend continuing. The time around Feb 2012 is a good example of reversal from downtrend to uptrend. We should see something like that happening if the uptrend is to sustain in the future.

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Post: #489   PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amitagg wrote:
Hi
Pls update strategy 'action'. Your very timely selling 6300 put closed bang on target.
Now what? Since bullish is still not negated, what action for Nov...till 6080 etc is done below
Warm regards
Amit


Yes, the sold 6300 PUT worked out very well even though the the long 5900 PUT expired worthless. Overall the position was profitable which is what I was looking for as I am only testing these signals. That trade was actually a whipsaw.

Now since the bearish setup has been negated, I will be initiating a bullish trade before the close on Tuesday (as long as we don't see a hard decline) . For testing the OTM PCR signals I am using a single long option. This time I will go for a call or maybe a bull call spread if I don't feel confident of the up move.

There is no bearish setup as of now. I will now wait for PCR rank to go above 50%, then look for a support to break after that to initiate a bearish trade.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Post: #490   PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (03.11.2013)

Rank has gone to bullish extreme very quickly. I am planning to initiate a bullish position tomorrow based on the price action but it is going to be tough as I am initiating the position late in the trend. But with my bullish position expiring with Oct expiry I will have to see if I can initiate a position. Will decide tomorrow.

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Last edited by SwingTrader on Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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ca.krishna
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Post: #491   PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excellent ST Bhai.....here I would like to add something...as per the chart most(almost 80% cases) of the time whenever the market in top (mean to say on upper side) and the rank is between 0 to 10 %, there seems to be correction in the market ranging from 50-200 points....and then from there market either goes for bull run (as can e seen in 2012) or goes down further as can be seen in 2013.......I think waiting at least one-two weeks to finally form a view for bullish senerio seems more clear...but some times when we wait for something it usually happens that the opportunity is gone or very less from our hand to form the position.
SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (03.11.2013)

Rank has gone to bullish extreme very quickly. I am planning to initiate a bullish position tomorrow based on the price action but it is going to be tough as I am initiating he position late in the trend. But with my bullish position expiring with Oct expiry I will have to see if I can initiate a position. Will decide tomorrow.
Idea
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SwingTrader
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Post: #492   PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ca.krishna wrote:
Excellent ST Bhai.....here I would like to add something...as per the chart most(almost 80% cases) of the time whenever the market in top (mean to say on upper side) and the rank is between 0 to 10 %, there seems to be correction in the market ranging from 50-200 points....and then from there market either goes for bull run (as can e seen in 2012) or goes down further as can be seen in 2013.......I think waiting at least one-two weeks to finally form a view for bullish senerio seems more clear...but some times when we wait for something it usually happens that the opportunity is gone or very less from our hand to form the position. Idea


Krishna,

Hmm...when the decline starts the rank is surely very low (below 10%) but the decline can start long after rank goes below 10%, actually the decline may start only after rank has gone above 70-80%. For example, the recent rally started when rank fell below 10% (on Sep 2nd) and even though rank has been around 10% for a while market has not yet started to decline.

There are two clear ways to time the trade using the rank chart (say for a decline). One, wait for the rank to go above 80% to initiate a short. Two, wait until rank goes above 50% and after that wait for a break of key support to initiate the trade (if rank falls back below 20% start looking for it to go above 50% again).

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vinay28
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Post: #493   PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (03.11.2013)

Rank has gone to bullish extreme very quickly. I am planning to initiate a bullish position tomorrow based on the price action but it is going to be tough as I am initiating the position late in the trend. But with my bullish position expiring with Oct expiry I will have to see if I can initiate a position. Will decide tomorrow.


ST, pl plot weekly close of rank with daily nifty, if possible, and post only if it seems to reveal anything more clearly.
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Post: #494   PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:

ST, pl plot weekly close of rank with daily nifty, if possible, and post only if it seems to reveal anything more clearly.


Hmm....will check.

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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Post: #495   PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (05.11.2013)

Rank is up a bit. I have not initiated a bullish position as market was down. I will initiate it only if I see strength.

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