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Post: #496  Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 6:19 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (06.11.2013)
Rank is up again today, now at 40.90%. I have not initiated the bullish position yet.
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amitagg
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| Post: #497 Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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Some obervations (pls correct or add)
- the indicator is not just for "buy" or "sell" trigger level but also "no trade" level?
- you have defined "buy" and "sell" triggers
- the indicator is not intended to be totally mechanical since we base "buy" "sell" on price action ie break up or down of key support
- the no trade zone is not defined...that is the trade exited due to expiry..but we are back watching price action to take long entry despite the indicator in "buy" mode still
This is only interim...let's see how the reverse entry is triggered and how the indictor fares in that...(Since it is intended to capture much bigger moves?)
Till date no wrong signals from the indicator as such (am I correct) |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #498 Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Some obervations (pls correct or add)
- the indicator is not just for "buy" or "sell" trigger level but also "no trade" level?
- you have defined "buy" and "sell" triggers
- the indicator is not intended to be totally mechanical since we base "buy" "sell" on price action ie break up or down of key support
- the no trade zone is not defined...that is the trade exited due to expiry..but we are back watching price action to take long entry despite the indicator in "buy" mode still
This is only interim...let's see how the reverse entry is triggered and how the indictor fares in that...(Since it is intended to capture much bigger moves?)
Till date no wrong signals from the indicator as such (am I correct) |
- the indicator is not just for "buy" or "sell" trigger level but also "no trade" level?
I am not using the indicator directly for buy/sell. For me the indicator going above/below 50% is a setup, I look for buy/sell trigger after I see this setup. But vinay had indicated earlier that one could go long once the indicator goes below 20% and short if it goes above 80%. Looking at the indicator it looks like one can do that with very few whipsaws (given the current history of the indicator). Options would be perfect for this task.
- you have defined "buy" and "sell" triggers
Yes, once the indicator indicates the setup I buy/sell on price breakouts above/below key sup/res
- the indicator is not intended to be totally mechanical since we base "buy" "sell" on price action ie break up or down of key support
Yes, it is not intended to be mechanical. I use discretion to initiate the trade. But 80-20% levels may be used for mechanical signals.
- the no trade zone is not defined...that is the trade exited due to expiry..but we are back watching price action to take long entry despite the indicator in "buy" mode still
Yes, I am trying to see how I could get re-entry after exiting early or after expiry. I don't have any idea at the moment about this (based on the indicator level). At the moment I am looking for some strength on the upside to enter.
Till date no wrong signals from the indicator as such (am I correct)
The indicator itself is sound. It gives slightly early signals of price reversals in most cases. Now, how well I use the indicator is up to me. I am trying to refine that. But some whipsaws will be there when there is extended sideways movement (eg. Feb-to-Apr 2012).
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| Post: #499 Posted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (07.11.2013)
Rank has shot up above 50% (now at 66.70%), the bearish setup is in play again. I will initiate a bearish trade if we get a daily close below 6080 on NIFTY SPOT. I have not initiated a new bullish trade after my bullish trade expired on Oct expiry day.
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| Post: #500 Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:17 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank & NSE Market Breadth charts (08.11.2013)
Rank holds above 50% which indicates near term bearishness for now. Watching 6080 on spot for initiating a bearish trade.
Breadth is strong at the moment. The next correction/consolidation will tell us if market will continue to be bullish for some more time or not. If the next correction does not hit the long term breadth significantly then the bullish trend could continue for some more time.
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vinay28
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| Post: #501 Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank & NSE Market Breadth charts (08.11.2013)
Rank holds above 50% which indicates near term bearishness for now. Watching 6080 on spot for initiating a bearish trade.
Breadth is strong at the moment. The next correction/consolidation will tell us if market will continue to be bullish for some more time or not. If the next correction does not hit the long term breadth significantly then the bullish trend could continue for some more time. |
some loud thinking ST. Once long term breadth has crossed above 40% it has never fallen sharply, at least not in last 3 years. May be a close below 6079 needs to be confirmed by a close below 6032. By that time medium term breadth may show sharp fall IF market is going to down only. |
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| Post: #502 Posted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:58 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
some loud thinking ST. Once long term breadth has crossed above 40% it has never fallen sharply, at least not in last 3 years. May be a close below 6079 needs to be confirmed by a close below 6032. By that time medium term breadth may show sharp fall IF market is going to down only. |
True. I too was thinking on those lines. Shorting maybe risky now unless market cleanly breaks the lower support of 6032.
One other thing that I was looking at is the point after long term breadth crossed above zero in Feb 2012. After that market declined around 600 pts but long term breadth kept going up (but medium term breadth declined). We might have to watch out for something similar to happen if market is to continue its uptrend. Of course, if long term declines a lot along with medium term then all bets on the uptrend are off.
It is going to be interesting....as always... 
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vinay28
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| Post: #503 Posted: Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
some loud thinking ST. Once long term breadth has crossed above 40% it has never fallen sharply, at least not in last 3 years. May be a close below 6079 needs to be confirmed by a close below 6032. By that time medium term breadth may show sharp fall IF market is going to down only. |
True. I too was thinking on those lines. Shorting maybe risky now unless market cleanly breaks the lower support of 6032.
One other thing that I was looking at is the point after long term breadth crossed above zero in Feb 2012. After that market declined around 600 pts but long term breadth kept going up (but medium term breadth declined). We might have to watch out for something similar to happen if market is to continue its uptrend. Of course, if long term declines a lot along with medium term then all bets on the uptrend are off.
It is going to be interesting....as always... |
yes true ST. That's why I said earlier that short term may fall if market is going to go down further and one can still make some money in shorting. As we discussed earlier, this phenomenon seems to be the periodic play between long term funds (cash trades) and ETFs (short term cash and f&o trades). The latter seems to be in play when bond market players sell causing a decline in INR, which has been happening in last few days. Next few days may be worth watching intently as we could sense some big moves on the horizon. The funny part of market is that, after all the brouhaha, the total range could only be plus/minus 300 and it may be a case of "flatter to deceive" by a rangebound market |
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| Post: #504 Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:06 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (11.11.2013)
Rank up today to 72.4%
I am watching 6080 on NS. Will initiate a bearish position tomorrow if it looks like NS would close below this level (will decide around 3 PM). There is minor support around 6030 but I will still initiate a bearish trade by NS is below 6080 just before market close. I will initiate a bear put spread or bear put diagonal spread (which I prefer most of the time) this time instead of a long put so I won't have to worry too much about managing it actively like my last trade.
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vinay28
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| Post: #505 Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:12 pm Post subject: |
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In spite of >250 point fall, rank is still <80%!  |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #506 Posted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | In spite of >250 point fall, rank is still <80%! |
Yeah, strange...could be another whipsaw coming
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| Post: #507 Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (12.11.2013)
Rank at 81.20%. I have initiated a bearish trade about 25 mins before market close. I bought the NOV 6200-6000 put spread, I usually go for a diagonal (when trading a spread) but I did not go for it this time as Nov expiry is too near to get a good price on a diagonal.
Now from this point if rank drops below 20% and after that we get a price breakout above a key resistance then I will reverse the trade to bullish spread.
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vinay28
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| Post: #508 Posted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (12.11.2013)
Rank at 81.20%. I have initiated a bearish trade about 25 mins before market close. I bought the NOV 6200-6000 put spread, I usually go for a diagonal (when trading a spread) but I did not go for it this time as Nov expiry is too near to get a good price on a diagonal.
Now from this point if rank drops below 20% and after that we get a price breakout above a key resistance then I will reverse the trade to bullish spread. |
ST - (a) looks like you took bearish trade after 6032 was broken and not "assuming" rank will cross over 80%, (b) has the medium term breadth fallen? and (c) I am still foxed why rank didn't shoot above 80-90% when the fall started as it has almost always done, particularly when nifty has reacted from a medium term peak. Is it because it is just a normal reaction after a huge rise meaning gain in short trade may not be much? |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #509 Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 8:50 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
ST - (a) looks like you took bearish trade after 6032 was broken and not "assuming" rank will cross over 80%, (b) has the medium term breadth fallen? and (c) I am still foxed why rank didn't shoot above 80-90% when the fall started as it has almost always done, particularly when nifty has reacted from a medium term peak. Is it because it is just a normal reaction after a huge rise meaning gain in short trade may not be much? |
I was anyway going to initiate a trade only after 3 PM just to make sure market would not rally and close above 6080, incidentally NS broke 6032 also by that time.
I have not checked medium term breadth yet, will check and post a chart little later.
I too am stumped with the movement of rank this time. I am just wondering if my current trade also is going to turn out like my last trade (on Sep 30th I initiated a bearish trade and that was the last day of the down move) At least this time I have a spread on, so managing will be much easier.
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| Post: #510 Posted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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Updated NF OTM PCR Rank chart (13.11.2013)
Rank at 81.50%. Nothing much to comment.
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