iCharts Discussions

bolband_macd · White Belt Joined: 06 Sep 2011 Posts: 104

ST sir,
Thank you such a wonderful pictorial information. If possible, could you please attach Nifty movement for the same period with volume ratio?
I know I am too greedy to ask you this.
Best Regards,
BM

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:20 am Post subject:

saumya12 · Brown Belt Joined: 21 Dec 2011 Posts: 1509

Thanks for the chart.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Many thanks ST. My guess was right. The "investment" is increasing and it means "long only funds" have been active since mid Nov '11. Note that both the ratio and nifty are making higher lows in tandem. No wonder that a higher and higher portion of 11B$ that have come in since Jan '12 is going into cash.

Of course the ratio will not tally exactly with nifty as time passes since they would buy mid and small caps also but the very fact that their charts do tally a good deal as of now means the investment is predominently in nifty stocks. It also confirms what I had heard many months ago and that is a lot of FIIs are now polarised in one direction instead of being in disagreement about India as they were since 2008 till a year ago.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

One more request ST. Is it possible to superimpose PCR and/or VIX on this chart? You asked for it! Smile

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:24 am Post subject:

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

Thanks ST & Vinay

For taking us to” forbidden insights.” Laughing

pkholla · Black Belt Joined: 04 Nov 2010 Posts: 2890

I thought the author's name (of that book!) is Vatsayan NOT Vinay!
Regards, Prakash Holla

rk_a2003 · Black Belt Joined: 21 Jan 2010 Posts: 2734

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:07 am Post subject:

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:15 am Post subject:

Here is a longer range chart. This is to gauge broad range of the ratio. Based on this I feel we are closer to an important market top. Market could get one more push up but that will push it more closer to a bigger top. This is my opinion Very Happy

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Prakash, you mean "vatsyayan" and not vatsayan! Smile

You now what he wrote. By the way, try to grab a book on kamasutra by Dr. Richard Burton (not actor). It's an early 20th century classic.

Sorry ST for this vital distraction. Smile

My intention is to compare with only nifty to see the long term trend, but you are right, seeing PCR only for NF may not be right as it will match with NF only. While for NS, stock options are required too. My aim is to try to establish whether bottom was over for good in dec '11.

From what I understand, the allocation for India amongst BRICS is increasing since India is "andhome raja" with China in big trouble and once global markets react after US elections, where else to go for "them"? Also, if USD fails w.r.t. global currencies, all hell will let loose as global economies struggle to come to terms with new currency. India is better placed in view of its domestic consumption (thanks to large population - what a shame) and with commodities crashing all around, we should benefit.

Of course, there are a lot of ifs and buts in this and let's see what your charts foretell.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

Also, ST, can you atleast superimpose PCR on VIX? The trend is changing lately and they don't seem to be linked