iCharts Discussions

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

Hello ST

Lets revist your summation of comments of "Market Sentinment Charts" and your views on past 3-4 years performance.....

- whether they are succesfull in particular trading styles
- whether they give late signal
- whether they give proper directional signal
- whether they are for large / long funds
- whether they help in trade execution
- what time span is there for buy and sell signals if they have a time lag [ie how many reversals from bull to bear and vice versa happen] or this cannot be predicted

Regards
Amit

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:48 am Post subject:

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

Thanks for the precise and fantastic exaplantion to my specific points but i am still learning and cannot appreciate some of the finer points / depth of the discussion / your points.

SwingTrader · Posted: Sun Mar 09, 2014 7:28 pm Post subject:

Updated Market Sentiment & Breadth charts (07.03.2014)

I am not sure what OTM PCR rank is trying to convey but I am very interested in monitoring what it does now as we are in new unseen territory. OTM PCR continues to indicate too much bullish sentiment but given the new highs we are at, it seems to be logical. Usually OTM PCR being at bullish extreme indicates bearish sentiment (in a contrary sense), but we will have to see how it goes given the all time highs. Let us see...

*** what I am seeing at the moment on OTM PCR & options sentiment chart has not happened before (in last 3 yrs of history I have). This just indicates that all indicators must be used along with price confirmation only. Price over rules everything in the market. ***

Market breadth : medium term breadth going strong (though still below 0%), short term breadth already strong. Long term breadth is at highs since a while now. So things are bullish in terms of breadth.

I was forced out of my equity hedges (on my long term equities portfolio) as market hit new highs. After a long long time I have been whipsawed on my hedges, which is okay.

Interesting times ahead....

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

It's just a gut feeling but I feel 1 month rank may reverse between 80-90%

amitagg · Black Belt Joined: 01 Oct 2013 Posts: 4559

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:30 pm Post subject:

Updated NSE OTM PCR Rank & Market Breadth charts (02.04.2014)

It was nice & smooth sailing until now and I hope it continues for some more time Very Happy

There was no point posting any of the charts earlier as there was nothing to say.

OTM PCR Rank chart now has hit bullish extreme (below 10%), so things are starting to get significantly overbought. It is time to make sure one is looking at / taking care of downside risk, though one should continue to be long.

Market breadth too reflects this extreme bullish condition. Long term, medium term & short term breadth are all at the top - extremely bullish.

So still remaining net long but with more concentration now on future price action from here.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

SwingTrader · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2014 9:32 am Post subject:

Updated Sentiment & Breadth charts (as of 16th Apr 2014 market close)

It looks like some kind of correction is setting up. It is not clear yet if the correction will start, we will have to see if the clues we are seeing do start a correction.

OTM PCR rank recently hit bullish extreme and is now shooting up indicating developing bearish bias. This clue will gain importance if/when the rank hits 80-90%. Options sentiment too hitting bearish bands will help confirm this further.

Short term market breadth is turning down but medium & long term breadth is very strong at the moment. These will come into play if correction develops (can be used to gauge extent of the correction).

Next few weeks could be interesting...

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2014 8:27 pm Post subject:

Updated Market Sentiment charts (30.04.2014)

Short-term decline is on but the probability of a deep down move seems to be low at the moment. I will still get defensive positionally if we breakdown from here because we are coming off from both medium & short term breadth at bullish extreme. Short-term breadth is negative now, a breakdown below nearest support would trigger a short-term short.

Options sentiment has not yet triggered a short so this too indicates decline may not be deep. A probable deep down move would have triggered a short far more quickly.

This has been a good run for my positional/long-term longs even though I un-hedged quite late this time after the up move started. I hope this dream run can go on for some more time before I have to hedge again.

SwingTrader · Posted: Wed May 07, 2014 8:00 pm Post subject:

Updated Market Sentiment Charts (07.05.2014)

NSE OTM PCR rank, as of now, still does not indicate a serious decline from here. Options sentiment confirms the same. Any chance of a serious decline would have been indicated by rank/opt sentiment shooting up above 80-90% before the decline started (or right near the top). We have not seen this.

Short-term market breadth has been trending down since mid-late April and has been negative since 30th Apr. A move by NS below 6650 sustained for couple of days could mean a defensive posture for me for my positional longs.

As of now, I do not anticipate a serious down move from here but I will be paying more attention than usual from now.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

in fact 3 month average change is yet to reach peak.

SwingTrader · Posted: Tue May 13, 2014 7:55 pm Post subject:

Updated Market Sentiment Charts (13.05.2014)

The dream run continues....no bearish signal triggered after 8th when price was around short-term support. Now all sentiment charts are back at bullish extremes. Nothing to do but sit back and watch the fun as long as it lasts.

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748