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vinay28
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Post: #646  Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:47 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | I guess the delivery pangs should start in 3 month ave change soon.  |
posted on 30/6. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #647 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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Updated OTM PCR chart (10.07.2014)
Today's price action was more or less meaningless. What happens in the next few days could give a clue to the direction (by default it is up as we are in an uptrend, the clue we are looking for is on the downside). OTM PCR continues to hover around 70% indicating slight bearish bias but no bearish signal yet. I would not lower my guard until I see OTM PCR backing off below 50% (and staying there).
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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| Post: #648 Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2014 9:06 pm Post subject: |
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| it hasn't gone above 90 since april |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #649 Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:54 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | it hasn't gone above 90 since april |
Yeah, true. So I am thinking the uptrend stays intact until we see it hitting 90+. That said, sentiment staying above 80+ for a while means more risk. Also, even if we see 90+, we might just get a small correction (like Jan '14 end) unless we see intermediate/long term breadth weakening.
Let us see...
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Last edited by SwingTrader on Fri Jul 11, 2014 9:08 am; edited 1 time in total |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #650 Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:34 pm Post subject: |
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Updated Market Sentiment charts (16.07.2014)
Sentiment has cooled off a bit. OTM PCR & Options sentiment indicates lower bearish bias and is now more or less neutral. No bearish signals triggered.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
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| Post: #651 Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2014 9:37 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated Market Sentiment charts (16.07.2014)
Sentiment has cooled off a bit. OTM PCR & Options sentiment indicates lower bearish bias and is now more or less neutral. No bearish signals triggered. |
as a likely advance info., we should see whether 1 month change reaches near zero. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #652 Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2014 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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Updated Market Sentiment Charts (28.07.2014)
Internals looking more and more bearish. Short has not triggered yet but a breather in the market looks more possible now.
NSE OTM PCR is just below 90% (strong bearish bias), options sentiment too close to short trigger. This kind of reading carries more weight as market is close to highs. Best short triggers based on options sentiment have been near market highs. So time to watch closely.
Short & medium term market breadth is negative which adds to the bearish bias.
3 Mth vs 1 Mth avg change has 1 mth avg change showing negative trend and 3 mth avg change off its highs.
Expiry and the few days following it are now crucial for decision making.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #653 Posted: Mon Aug 04, 2014 9:59 pm Post subject: |
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Updated Market Sentiment Charts (04.08.2014)
Downside risk has decreased significantly, no short triggered (I was thinking it would....but it did not). NSE OTM PCR has gone below 50% which makes it neutral for now.
Market breadth - short & medium - are negative at the moment but long term firmly up. It has not left its top position since a while now.
NSE 1 month avg percent change rank is negative whereas 3 months change rank is still strongly positive though it is off its highs.
I am holding off on those equity hedges for my long term longs for now. Let us see how it goes from here.
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #654 Posted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:36 pm Post subject: |
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Updated Market Sentiment Charts (13.08.2014)
NF OTM PCR is very close to a short trigger. Options sentiment too is close to confirmation of the same. After moving back & forth for a while around 80-85% levels, NF OTM PCR rank is now at 89.94% (close to 90% short trigger). Options sentiment too has to hit the upper band and confirm this. Time to watch carefully and be ready for action.
Medium & short term market breadth is strongly negative though long term remains strongly bullish.
A near term correction cannot be ruled out until all these indicators retreat from their strong bearish bias positions.
Watch closely...
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vinay28
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| Post: #655 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:39 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Updated Market Sentiment Charts (13.08.2014)
NF OTM PCR is very close to a short trigger. Options sentiment too is close to confirmation of the same. After moving back & forth for a while around 80-85% levels, NF OTM PCR rank is now at 89.94% (close to 90% short trigger). Options sentiment too has to hit the upper band and confirm this. Time to watch carefully and be ready for action.
Medium & short term market breadth is strongly negative though long term remains strongly bullish.
A near term correction cannot be ruled out until all these indicators retreat from their strong bearish bias positions.
Watch closely... |
you are right ST. When rank crosses above 90%, nifty has always reacted. One interesting thing is, never before nifty has gone up to kiss the 3 mnth change and I wonder how to interpret it.
Last edited by vinay28 on Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:55 am; edited 1 time in total |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #656 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:03 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
you are ST. When rank crosses above 90%, nifty has always reacted. One interesting thing is, never before nifty has gone up to kiss the 3 mnth change and I wonder how to interpret it. |
Yes, you are right about 90% level (it is you who had pointed it out to me quite a while ago). I am very eager to see what will happen this time it goes above 90%.
The nifty move vs 3 mnth chg is probably due to chart scaling only. If we take the chart range only upto Jan 2014 end and change the chart range (for nifty) to be between 5200 and 6400/6500 we would probably see the same effect. I am not really sure if that has any significance other than the fact that usually nifty would be on some kind of top when 3 mnth also tops out.
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apka
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| Post: #657 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:41 am Post subject: |
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| does the current low value of VIX under 14 has any quotient in this? |
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vinay28
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| Post: #658 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:58 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Yes, you are right about 90% level (it is you who had pointed it out to me quite a while ago). I am very eager to see what will happen this time it goes above 90%.
The nifty move vs 3 mnth chg is probably due to chart scaling only. If we take the chart range only upto Jan 2014 end and change the chart range (for nifty) to be between 5200 and 6400/6500 we would probably see the same effect. I am not really sure if that has any significance other than the fact that usually nifty would be on some kind of top when 3 mnth also tops out. |
ST, when you are free, is it possible to check this? If it's same, we can ignore this thought. |
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vinay28
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| Post: #659 Posted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:05 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | does the current low value of VIX under 14 has any quotient in this? |
that only ST can clarify but I doubt if vix directly comes in "calculation" except in the form of pcr.
If you recall, soon after ST started this thread, I tried all sorts of vix and pcr combinations to see whether there was any co-relation. Finally, I arrived at pcr*vix product, which I track everyday and find it about 50-60% successful when predicting daily closes, particularly when the product reverses i.e. reduces or increases w.r.t. previous few values. But that only tells about colour of daily candle and not about day's close w.r.t. previous close. Unfortunately, I am unable to explain it.
However, I also try to co-relate it with other aspect, about which I am not permitted to talk about in in icharts. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #660 Posted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | does the current low value of VIX under 14 has any quotient in this? |
I really don't know but I will see if I can do some visual check on the history (vs VIX) and see if I see something interesting.
Will post an update about this over the weekend.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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