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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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Post: #691  Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2016 11:13 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | Market Sentiment Charts as of 08.07.2016 |
Tks Srikanth, I was about to ask you for this and somehow missed it, seeing that you posted on 8/7. You must be a clairvoyant. 
I have become very bearish, though fundamentally and sentimentally, since last week (I will post my reasons in "nifty view" thread) but your charts are giving highly conflicting signals, perhaps for the first time. I am confused now. Luckily, I have hedged my investment with august and sept far away puts though I have also sold more than 25% of investment and may sell more tmrw.
BTW, while going thru the previous posts, I was shocked to see my post of 22 jan and 22 feb'15, which I had completely forgotten about. Never imagined I will be so deadly accurate.  |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #692 Posted: Sun Jul 10, 2016 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | | Market Sentiment Charts as of 08.07.2016 |
Tks Srikanth, I was about to ask you for this and somehow missed it, seeing that you posted on 8/7. You must be a clairvoyant.
I have become very bearish, though fundamentally and sentimentally, since last week (I will post my reasons in "nifty view" thread) but your charts are giving highly conflicting signals, perhaps for the first time. I am confused now. Luckily, I have hedged my investment with august and sept far away puts though I have also sold more than 25% of investment and may sell more tmrw.
BTW, while going thru the previous posts, I was shocked to see my post of 22 jan and 22 feb'15, which I had completely forgotten about. Never imagined I will be so deadly accurate. |
Actually in the other thread, Apka asked me to post the latest update so I updated the charts after a long time and posted this update. Hope you are doing great. Nice to interact with you after quite a while.
Yes, your guess about the impending top was right on the money. At the moment, I am also a bit uncomfortable but in two minds about a top, mainly due to what you pointed out above - conflicting signals. But valuations of many leading stocks are quite high.
Attached is another chart which displays average yearly & monthly changes of NSE stocks. From this chart it looks like we are somewhere in no man's land - neither at a top or bottom. But another way to look at it is to view this is to see the downtrend (since early 2015) as incomplete. We could easily go down significantly as the yearly changes of stocks did not become significantly negative to imply a bottom. I would be comfortable betting big only if I see a 2011 or at least 2013 like negativity on average yearly changes.
I am still holding unhedged equities, will look to hedge actively if things turn volatile. Thanks for posting your opinion.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #693 Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:07 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | | Market Sentiment Charts as of 08.07.2016 |
Tks Srikanth, I was about to ask you for this and somehow missed it, seeing that you posted on 8/7. You must be a clairvoyant.
I have become very bearish, though fundamentally and sentimentally, since last week (I will post my reasons in "nifty view" thread) but your charts are giving highly conflicting signals, perhaps for the first time. I am confused now. Luckily, I have hedged my investment with august and sept far away puts though I have also sold more than 25% of investment and may sell more tmrw.
BTW, while going thru the previous posts, I was shocked to see my post of 22 jan and 22 feb'15, which I had completely forgotten about. Never imagined I will be so deadly accurate. |
Actually in the other thread, Apka asked me to post the latest update so I updated the charts after a long time and posted this update. Hope you are doing great. Nice to interact with you after quite a while.
Yes, your guess about the impending top was right on the money. At the moment, I am also a bit uncomfortable but in two minds about a top, mainly due to what you pointed out above - conflicting signals. But valuations of many leading stocks are quite high.
Attached is another chart which displays average yearly & monthly changes of NSE stocks. From this chart it looks like we are somewhere in no man's land - neither at a top or bottom. But another way to look at it is to view this is to see the downtrend (since early 2015) as incomplete. We could easily go down significantly as the yearly changes of stocks did not become significantly negative to imply a bottom. I would be comfortable betting big only if I see a 2011 or at least 2013 like negativity on average yearly changes.
I am still holding unhedged equities, will look to hedge actively if things turn volatile. Thanks for posting your opinion. |
tks srikant, good to chat with you too, as always.
Average/monthly % changes vis-à-vis chart and your earlier chart can have one implication and that is nifty 50 may not go up but others may still have a room, perhaps till end of results by 3rd week of july. but I will keep selling.
BTW, will post an article to you by PM soon.
tks again |
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #694 Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 10:27 am Post subject: |
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| Thank you ST for the charts. It's nice to read you and Vinay converse about market again. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #695 Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:36 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Thank you ST for the charts. It's nice to read you and Vinay converse about market again. |
what the hell do you mean? we chat about other issues also?  |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #696 Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Thank you ST for the charts. It's nice to read you and Vinay converse about market again. |
Let us continue this discussion. Things could get interesting soon....or maybe they won't, market just loves to prove us wrong
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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| Post: #697 Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:11 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Thank you ST for the charts. It's nice to read you and Vinay converse about market again. |
what the hell do you mean? we chat about other issues also? |
Lmao |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #698 Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2016 5:47 pm Post subject: NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016 |
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NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016
Market crusing along (long term breadth)....
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #699 Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2016 7:22 pm Post subject: Re: NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016 |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016
Market crusing along (long term breadth).... |
long term breadth is showing divergence since mid july. I wonder why |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #700 Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 11:44 am Post subject: Re: NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016 |
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| vinay28 wrote: |
long term breadth is showing divergence since mid july. I wonder why |
I wouldn't read too much into this divergence. Since the oscillator values are capped at 100% it displays such behaviour once oscillator moves above 80-90%. I saw this in 2014 too when there was an extended up move (oscillator got stuck at 100% for quite a while). The only meaningful signal long term breadth can give now would be if / when it declines significantly while price stays up to sideways. Of course, the divergence may or may not show up before a decline, I hope it does like 2014.
Here is the breadth oscillator chart for 2014 up move.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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vinay28
Black Belt
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| Post: #701 Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2016 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: NSE Breadth Oscillator - 16.09.2016 |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: |
long term breadth is showing divergence since mid july. I wonder why |
I wouldn't read too much into this divergence. Since the oscillator values are capped at 100% it displays such behaviour once oscillator moves above 80-90%. I saw this in 2014 too when there was an extended up move (oscillator got stuck at 100% for quite a while). The only meaningful signal long term breadth can give now would be if / when it declines significantly while price stays up to sideways. Of course, the divergence may or may not show up before a decline, I hope it does like 2014.
Here is the breadth oscillator chart for 2014 up move. |
hmmm, point noted, tks srikant |
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SwingTrader
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #702 Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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Latest Market Breadth Oscillator chart :
Nothing much to update, market still going strong!
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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Posts: 2903
Location: Hyderabad, India
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| Post: #703 Posted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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NIFTY Rolling Returns Chart
This chart would be of interest to investors. The chart plots running NIFTY Monthly & Quarterly rolling returns. This is NOT a regular market timing chart. The chart does tell you when it is an optimum time to buy stocks for the long term. The time is when the rolling returns drop below 0, preferably to -5 or -10 and below. The chart cannot be used to determine when to sell. That question can be answered by your stocks only. Look at the trend/fundamentals or both to decide. One cannot just exit stocks once NIFTY rolling returns reach historical high points as market can just keep going for months or even years from that point (see 2014 for eg.). But the important point is that it is surely NOT the optimum time to initiate long term holdings when NIFTY quarterly rolling returns are at historical highs. Currently quarterly rolling returns are high so it does not seem to be a good time to initiate heavy long term positions. I would at least wait for monthly rolling returns to drop below zero to add a bit to existing stocks. Serious portfolio addition is suggested only when rolling returns are deeply negative. Just my thoughts....
*** We DO NOT recommend anything here. The above is for educational purposes only. Please take your own decision about your investments.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Param6300
White Belt
Joined: 11 Sep 2013
Posts: 46
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| Post: #704 Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:04 am Post subject: NIFTY Rolling Returns Chart |
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| This is awesome... |
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manojkr78
Green Belt
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1014
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| Post: #705 Posted: Fri May 05, 2017 7:15 am Post subject: |
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| updates plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz |
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