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SwingTrader
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Post: #706  Posted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:46 am Post subject: |
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Manoj,
Obviously everything up at the moment and everything seems to be overbought. Very difficult to get signals at this time and any signals pointed could be wrong. So there is not much to do but follow the price action at this time. Here is the breadth oscillator chart, both medium term and long term breadth is at the top. So we are overbought . How long this will go on is anyone's guess. Overbought can stay overbought for a while. So, again, keep a close watch on price action.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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manojkr78
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| Post: #707 Posted: Fri May 05, 2017 12:08 pm Post subject: |
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| thanks srikanth |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #708 Posted: Fri May 05, 2017 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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This market breadth oscillator chart is now available on our new site here :
http://fundata.in/marketbreadth/BreadthChart
The chart is updated every day in the night.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
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| Post: #709 Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Hi ST.. a reassessment of things at this stage would be appreciated |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #710 Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | Hi ST.. a reassessment of things at this stage would be appreciated |
Sure. Here are my thoughts...
It has been such fun being invested in the market since 2016 mainly, with hindsight it has been great run since 2013 bottom with some pause in 2015. Also, 2014 & 2017 were rare years. Momentum has had a field day. Is it over? I have no idea. I feel we just have to be in the market so opportunities are not lost. But if this pullback turns into a major correction then either waiting on the sidelines or hedging could be opted for. Clear cut trading rules must be in place to do this.
Currently breadth oscillator is just indicating a pullback like the one in Nov/Dec 2016 (indicated by the medium term breadth). If long term breadth goes down below zero then the correction could get much deeper and things can get messy. Will have to wait and see.
Mid and small caps have had deeper corrections. Large cap indexes like Nifty are not giving the true picture. Since mid & small caps were extremely extended, they have fallen hard. Many have fallen 15-20% or more. Nifty index itself has declined only by around 6% where as midcap index has gone down by around 11% and smallcap index by around 15%.
Since overall valuations of stocks are still very extended, I feel momentum has to be a key guiding factor with strict stop loss to exit holdings. Controlling losses would be the key going forward as once deeper correction starts it could be very swift. Surviving in the market is the main thing.
Will post some more stuff tomorrow.
Safe trading / investing everybody!!! Focus on controlling / reducing losses, profits will inevitably follow.
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apka
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| Post: #711 Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:09 pm Post subject: |
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| Thanks ST.. looking fwd to what you'll post tomorrow. |
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Sun08
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| Post: #712 Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:03 pm Post subject: |
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I went through previous posts. Excellent analysis. I am worried as of now and may dump my investment soon. Main problem is all analysis (TA, sentimental, fundamental, etc.) has been thrown to winds due to tax on LTCG, which limits prices to highs of 31/01 to such an extent that even charts will not give any clue in short term. Since "grandfathering" doesn't apply to FIIs, they have been selling even though DII buy. Though last year saw huge domestic inflows which more than matched FII inflows, it won't last long as total FII investment over last 15 years has been huge.
I hope this sentiment analysis throws some hints but I wonder how much it is delayed.
Just a thought as I feel all is not well. Tks |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #713 Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | I went through previous posts. Excellent analysis. I am worried as of now and may dump my investment soon. Main problem is all analysis (TA, sentimental, fundamental, etc.) has been thrown to winds due to tax on LTCG, which limits prices to highs of 31/01 to such an extent that even charts will not give any clue in short term. Since "grandfathering" doesn't apply to FIIs, they have been selling even though DII buy. Though last year saw huge domestic inflows which more than matched FII inflows, it won't last long as total FII investment over last 15 years has been huge.
I hope this sentiment analysis throws some hints but I wonder how much it is delayed.
Just a thought as I feel all is not well. Tks |
I don't think the LTCG issue would invalidate TA/fundamental analysis. See, TA depends on price (mostly for short to intermediate term) so here LTCG is not applicable. Even if people dump long term holdings (there is really no reason to do so) for TA this will not change anything other than having some short term impact which may even have passed or we will know by next month end. Fundamentals are used and applicable only for long term and a LTCG should not be of concern if one is planning to hold for really long term which should be the idea for fundamental / value investors anyway.
Since quite a while I hedge my long term holdings with futures if/when I am nervous (based on intermediate term TA). I really don't know if that is even a good idea. I am not sure if that even makes a difference in the long term. It might make sense only if a 2008 like crash happens, during other times it is probably just a psychological crutch. I feel having a trading/investing system or fixed set of rules to take you out of positions when market starts declining deep is important. More important for intermediate term traders like me. For really long term investors - they should stick to their value / growth investing rules. Whatever kind of trading / investment style - having clear cut rules for taking positions / standing aside and exiting are very critical.
For investors what to do for the long term is the real question and I feel one should re-evaluate once we hit around 20% decline. From there things can get serious. Until then <20% pullbacks are just noise or even opportunities for long term investments.
Just my ideas...would love to hear other ideas...
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Sun08
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| Post: #714 Posted: Wed Feb 14, 2018 3:41 pm Post subject: |
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tks for a detailed reply. I generally agree but what I meant was that tax on LTCG may restrict prices to 31/1 highs for some time. In any case, since at least my sentiment has turned very negative, I have taken feb 10400/200 and march 9800 puts today morning. I have also started offloading some of my investment including long term as otherwise I will be forced to pay LTCG tax after 1/4.
BTW, today's US inflation data is most crucial in a long term due to very high bond yield. Also, DOW touched upper TL of long term monthly channel for the first time in 70 years and is highly overbought. I feel we could see a severe fall of as much as 20% very fast say, in 2 months. I could be wrong but hedging investment with puts may be useful in such a mental state to me. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #715 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | tks for a detailed reply. I generally agree but what I meant was that tax on LTCG may restrict prices to 31/1 highs for some time. In any case, since at least my sentiment has turned very negative, I have taken feb 10400/200 and march 9800 puts today morning. I have also started offloading some of my investment including long term as otherwise I will be forced to pay LTCG tax after 1/4.
BTW, today's US inflation data is most crucial in a long term due to very high bond yield. Also, DOW touched upper TL of long term monthly channel for the first time in 70 years and is highly overbought. I feel we could see a severe fall of as much as 20% very fast say, in 2 months. I could be wrong but hedging investment with puts may be useful in such a mental state to me. |
Let us see. I am waiting for such a fall since a while now  I am sure many investors with long term ideas are also waiting for the same. So I am wondering if there will really be a severe fall or will it be more slow, grinding, frustrating. We will have to see. Of course, some tactical hedging to protect existing gains will do no harm I guess.
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Sun08
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| Post: #716 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:37 pm Post subject: |
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tks for the moral support. 
Last four days I have been selling and buying puts again at lower levels and made decent profit. I got out today and actually went long thinking that some recovery is likely for a few days. My medium term outlook (at least till june) remains bearish. Let's see, keeping fingers crossed.
tks again |
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apka
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| Post: #717 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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Pain has not even begun. Remember last bear phases how testy they were that time nifty was almost half of now.. next bear phase will frustrate even more. We'll be that much further from the top.
Anyhow, I think it's soon to judge what will happen. For the moment trading range has shifted to lower end and will take few weeks to know the next direction.
Banknifty is making new lows everyday.. several psu banks are under their 200dma.. I think 9700s shall come in nifty and banknifty worst case 23500-600.... Without banknifty's support nifty will not go anywhere too far. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #718 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Pain has not even begun. Remember last bear phases how testy they were that time nifty was almost half of now.. next bear phase will frustrate even more. We'll be that much further from the top.
Anyhow, I think it's soon to judge what will happen. For the moment trading range has shifted to lower end and will take few weeks to know the next direction.
Banknifty is making new lows everyday.. several psu banks are under their 200dma.. I think 9700s shall come in nifty and banknifty worst case 23500-600.... Without banknifty's support nifty will not go anywhere too far. |
Absolutely, this pullback is nothing. The more the pain the better for long term. Also, a correction is long long overdue.
The current status of the market points towards continued correction. I was going to post something but didn't find time. Here is an image of something that I track for my momentum trading. The image shows the number of stocks trading away from monthly & quarterly highs. The stocks considered are of market cap 300 cr and above. Currenty most stocks and solidly in very bearish territory of 10-20% decline from highs and more than 20% decline from highs. 800+ stocks are in this territory.
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Sun08
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| Post: #719 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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March end being financial year end, due to NAV purposes, I am mentally prepared for a rally to as much as 10600/700+ in next few days, max a week or so, and hence I have gone long in nifty. I can be wrong but I feel it's worth the risk.
My observation over many years is that a fundamentally strong stock will react to at least 25% from its ATH and is ideal for nibbling there. This applies to those stocks which have made an ATH this year and not to many of the mid/small caps.
My initial target otherwise is about 9950, latest by June. A historic calculation I did, which seems to succeed very well, suggests that if 9942 is touched then eventually it may go to 8825, probably by Oct, albeit after a small reversal from 9940.
Let's see how it works out. |
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amitagg
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| Post: #720 Posted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | March end being financial year end, due to NAV purposes, I am mentally prepared for a rally to as much as 10600/700+ in next few days, max a week or so, and hence I have gone long in nifty. I can be wrong but I feel it's worth the risk.
My observation over many years is that a fundamentally strong stock will react to at least 25% from its ATH and is ideal for nibbling there. This applies to those stocks which have made an ATH this year and not to many of the mid/small caps.
My initial target otherwise is about 9950, latest by June. A historic calculation I did, which seems to succeed very well, suggests that if 9942 is touched then eventually it may go to 8825, probably by Oct, albeit after a small reversal from 9940.
Let's see how it works out. |
Sun08 - overflowing comments from your end
is it just a guess work ..... 8825 and (timing) Oct ... Don't think this historic observation has any facets or empirical reasoning  ......it's a valid break of dollex as well and be surprised if the market keeps going HIGHER keeping afloat above 9600 or so to target 12900 ....long way to go UP....( mine also a guesswork!)
So in the End what do we have from all these ( predictive) posts ! Any conclusion!? |
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