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Sun08
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Post: #721  Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | Sun08 - overflowing comments from your end
is it just a guess work ..... 8825 and (timing) Oct ... Don't think this historic observation has any facets or empirical reasoning  ......it's a valid break of dollex as well and be surprised if the market keeps going HIGHER keeping afloat above 9600 or so to target 12900 ....long way to go UP....( mine also a guesswork!)
So in the End what do we have from all these ( predictive) posts ! Any conclusion!? |
agreed but it was a gut feeling which I posted based on my calculations. actually the dollex you mentioned will give a hint of an impending bottom, at least temporary, as INR is falling. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #722 Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:07 am Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: |
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So in the End what do we have from all these ( predictive) posts ! Any conclusion!? |
No conclusions, I mostly end up confusing myself doing all these calculations 
But would love to hear from others on what they think about the market going forward. The idea is to know the probabilities (even if there are no conclusons) one way or the other.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Sun08
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| Post: #723 Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | No conclusions, I mostly end up confusing myself doing all these calculations
But would love to hear from others on what they think about the market going forward. The idea is to know the probabilities (even if there are no conclusons) one way or the other. |
tks |
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apka
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| Post: #724 Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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This is what makes the market - some expect downside for sure, some are confused, some hopeful for upside.. mix of views.
This new phase of the market is going to be fun. For the moment, Nifty has tried to close above it's 50DMA since last few sessions, though it breached it intraday but hasn't closed above it even once which it broke in 1st week of Feb. Going forward this is the level to watch. Any closing above this level (I prefer weekly closing) will shift the momentum of sentiments.
Anyhow, right now technical resistances are being respected, so only once we stop making new lows, see reduction in short built ups, VIX drop down under 14 and see some consolidation will the swing change.
No need to make up the mind and conclude. Just ride with the tide. |
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Sun08
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| Post: #725 Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:57 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | March end being financial year end, due to NAV purposes, I am mentally prepared for a rally to as much as 10600/700+ in next few days, max a week or so, and hence I have gone long in nifty. I can be wrong but I feel it's worth the risk.
My observation over many years is that a fundamentally strong stock will react to at least 25% from its ATH and is ideal for nibbling there. This applies to those stocks which have made an ATH this year and not to many of the mid/small caps.
My initial target otherwise is about 9950, latest by June. A historic calculation I did, which seems to succeed very well, suggests that if 9942 is touched then eventually it may go to 8825, probably by Oct, albeit after a small reversal from 9940.
Let's see how it works out. |
10600+ was done quickly and reversed. Looks dicey now considering that we may see 10250 on Monday, 5/3. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #726 Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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Watching the NSE market breadth oscillator, especially the long term line (green line). If this goes below zero and stays it means the breadth is too bad. Well...I guess almost everybody now knows the market breadth is bad. But if the long term breadth goes and stays below zero for some time it could take a while for it to get back up above zero as majority of stocks would have broken down bad.
I was also running scans to see which stocks were bucking the downtrend. Here is a list of stocks from BSE 500 index that are close to their quarterly highs: TECHM, ASHOKLEY, AARTIIND, BAJAJELEC, CANFINHOME, CUB & SANOFI.
*** I DO NOT GIVE RECOMMENDATIONS, THIS IS JUST FOR DISCUSSION & LEARNING. DON'T TRADE/INVEST IN ANY OF THE STOCKS I HAVE MENTIONED BASED ON WHAT I AM DISCUSSING HERE. ***
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Sun08
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| Post: #727 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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when was the green line below zero last time?
BTW, I have gone small contra long in nifty now. A chance worth taking I feel though I could be wrong |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #728 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | when was the green line below zero last time?
BTW, I have gone small contra long in nifty now. A chance worth taking I feel though I could be wrong |
Here is the breadth oscillator chart from 01.01.2015 to 31.03.2017. The year 2015 was a mess, breadth was all over the place. The long term breadth was mostly down from Mar onwards but went up above zero in Jul-Aug and then again from Oct onwards until Jan 2017. This was due to mid & small caps rallies, though indexes went down throughout 2015, mid & small cap stocks kept rallying. Jan-Feb correction brought everything back into sync.
Since May 2016 the long term breadth (green line) is above zero.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Sun08
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| Post: #729 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:39 pm Post subject: |
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| tks a lot. by any chance you have a much longer time chart e.g. from 2003/2008 etc. That may help in checking long term prospects. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #730 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | tks a lot. by any chance you have a much longer time chart e.g. from 2003/2008 etc. That may help in checking long term prospects. |
I started populating this data in our database starting 2011 (updated everyday after EOD data update). I need to build the old data, currently don't have it. Will try and do it soon.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Sun08
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| Post: #731 Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:01 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | Sun08 wrote: | | tks a lot. by any chance you have a much longer time chart e.g. from 2003/2008 etc. That may help in checking long term prospects. |
I started populating this data in our database starting 2011 (updated everyday after EOD data update). I need to build the old data, currently don't have it. Will try and do it soon. |
ok tks. My gut feeling is a very fast fall or rise from tmrw and I am betting on latter. |
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Sun08
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| Post: #732 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | ok tks. My gut feeling is a very fast fall or rise from tmrw and I am betting on latter. |
so far so good though I booked little over half my calls |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #733 Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:07 am Post subject: |
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Long term breadth very weak at the moment.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
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| Post: #734 Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:10 am Post subject: |
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Hi, I don't know if you've mentioned before or it was asked before.. but when was the last time this happened? And how long did it last? Any way to populate the data of that time so a graph can be made?
I'm expecting a pullback from hereon. |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #735 Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:27 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Hi, I don't know if you've mentioned before or it was asked before.. but when was the last time this happened? And how long did it last? Any way to populate the data of that time so a graph can be made?
I'm expecting a pullback from hereon. |
If you scroll down and see, I had posted 2015-2016 chart in this thread few days ago. 2015 was messy, long term breadth had dropped below zero and did give two whipsaws during intermittent rallies. For other durations, I will check. There should be similar events in 2013 also. Before that I need to populate data. I will try to do it this weekend.
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