iCharts Discussions

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Thanks ST

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

What your 2015-2017 chart shows is medium term breadth held near bottom before rounding up for around 3 months max each time.. if we assume the same scenario.. we are close to bottom and reversal.

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:57 am Post subject:

Here is 2013 chart. I am worried about this kind of scenario.

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:06 am Post subject:

Here is 2010-2011 chart. The two scenarios marked on the chart are very similar to what is happening now. In the 1st case long term breadth reverses and heads up and we rally from here. In the 2nd case long term breadth continues to deteriorate and we continue to decline. So what could be happening now? I guess we will only know going forward...

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

In all the charts, nifty doesn't seem to have direct correlation with long term index but with medium/short term, yes. e.g. in 2013, and even in later years, nifty started rising long before long term raised its neck.

That raises one question in my mind. What are the factors that go (get collated) into making/plotting these sentiment indices? Importantly, is USD/INR rate involved? I suggest you see S&P BSE Dollex 30 index. Nifty reverses whenever there is a divergence between it and nifty. That's how I went heavily long after budget crash to 6825.

I do agree that it looks bad now. As I had posted earlier, pain could last till june or oct, latter if 9942 is touched. But this comparison will be very useful at the end of these two months since a very low chance, as of now, may be a much longer bear market.

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2018 6:54 pm Post subject:

I only use market breadth for this indicator. NIFTY may or may not have a direct correlation with breadth oscillator as market breadth changes tend to be early at times and late at other times. One reason for this could be the index composition - Nifty being large 50 stocks whereas market breadth being composed of the whole market. The breadth oscillator plotted is nothing fancy, it just uses stock prices and their average and nothing else. The oscillator depends on where most stocks are relative to their 50 & 200 day moving averages.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Lovely ST, very clever.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

SwingTrader · Posted: Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:02 pm Post subject:

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator chart as on 23.03.2018

It is now more or less clear. Long term market breadth has crossed over strongly below 0 and has a strong downward bias. This could now probably take some time to resolve. Let us see...

skaz · White Belt Joined: 30 Jul 2014 Posts: 14

Hi ST,

This is good thread, pl keep updating it. though I Know first time after Feb 2016, it actually required some sentiment reversal update on forum ( I guess I am correct). on 23/3/18 NF/BNF both broke weekly Pivot. This means now onwards all the up move will attract more intense short selling. let us see where we go and how far. I don't give any upside/ down side target. As people who are in trading business should just trade as per trend and chart.. not assign any target etc.
Regards,

SwingTrader · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:05 am Post subject:

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

I think in this or by next week we should see some change in the graph.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

SwingTrader

Let us see what happens this week, no improvement in breadth as of now.