iCharts Discussions

[pkholla]

Vinay: 'Also, if USD fails w.r.t. global currencies':
I think many countries will thank US for showing them how easy it is to bypass the currency-in-ICU. India and Iran are doing a great barter oil for soy meal etc and China has for long been a pioneer in doing non-$ based deals. Saudi is frantically diversifying away from $. Lets see if your earlier post (Fed Res, on Dec 2013 d-date) comes true. Rgds, Prakash Holla

[vinay28]

oh ya, I had forgotten about my post. Was it dec13 or 12?

[SwingTrader]

[vinay28]

thanks St again

except for in aug-sept '11 and apr-jul '12, pcr and vix are opposing and that's when market went up. Normally a high pcr should have given a high vix also. Comparison not very clear but may be it's because of shift to cash.

I saw somewhere that monthly vix made a star in nov and now and I am wondering what market is upto

[vinay28]

sorry ST, I saw the long range chart just now. You could be right about the top but I am wondering whether "base building" exercise is going on in long term, considering that not even 30% of total FII flow was taken out since early 2008.

[SwingTrader]

[p_wangdu]

[SwingTrader]

Options sentiment is indicating more downside this week. My guess is 5300-5200 or even lower for this expiry...just a wild guess as I want lower prices

I have unhedged my SEP 5400 puts. I will let these run unhedged, on any strong breakout above the recent highs I will close these out.

I still can't understand the idea behind the bullish theories floating around, especially with nothing to support those. But a trend is a trend and there is no fighting a trend. I have been against the trend since my 24th Jul put purchase. Unless I see a clear downside move this week I will close out the puts and re-enter based on further analysis. I am hesitant to go against options sentiment as I haven't seen it go against the trend for too long. The current divergence of prices against everything is not sustainable and something has to give in. Once this issue clears up I will look to enter again. But until then I will continue to manage the current trade for this week and then decide further course of action.

Those who are long, be careful. Those who are short also be careful!!!

[rk_a2003]

So! Who don't have any position can be peaceful. That could be the reason for the hedge funds to remain with cash piles at historical highs. The managers of the same must have preferred it to being careful.

[SwingTrader]

[SwingTrader]

Posting one more of my silly charts to support my bearish argument

This chart shows the average % changes in NSE stocks - 1 month avg vs 3 months avg. Obviously 1 month avg line will turn down before 3 months avg line when market is turning down. So this chart may be showing what is obvious but it does help in confirming a theory....well...most of the time. Look at it and you decide...

The main observation in this chart is this : the 1 month line turns down first after a rally and then 3 months line turns down during an attempt by 1 month line to rise after the decline. This has happened before the end of all previous rallies. It is happening now, but what happens this time remains to be seen.

[rk_a2003]

ST,
Could you please superimpose Nifty on this 1 month - 3 month average % change chart if possible.

[SwingTrader]

[vinay28]

ST, I don't know what option sentiment implies but I have one observation. Normally (probably always) a PE commands more premium than a CE but this time CEs has more premium than PEs, even for sept. Hence the IV for CE is also more that for PE. This is unusual.

[SwingTrader]