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apka
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Post: #811  Posted: Sat May 26, 2018 7:55 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | apka wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | | apka wrote: | | Great..! now it's clear we will go much further down and your charts certainly gave the clue in advance. |
hmm....looks like that. One question....do you invest for long term? If yes, how are you approaching it at the moment? |
Good question... Sorry for the late reply, was busy watching the market  ... Sometimes the price is not right, sometimes the amount I want to invest from my side is short...
So I have made a strategy for myself, i.e., whatever trading profit I earn, if the amount is small then I purchase stocks which I like + Bluechip... qty 1-10 whatever I can with the entire profit same day... If the profit is more than avg i buy more qtys on that day or withdraw some. This way I don't panic that I am at a loss. Because I didn't put my own source of income to invest. Maybe if market falls 20-25% then i'll invest from my own.
My target is to keep making daily profit in trading and keep accumulating atleast 2-3 qtys of any scrips I keep a watch on for long term and not bother about the price fluctuations. This way, I can end up with decent qtys in a year or 2 without doing investment from my income sources.
For this.. I am keeping a horizon of 10-15-20 years in mind with the assumption market will be much better than today, so not worried about price changes right now. |
Thanks for the reply. |
How are you approaching it at present? |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #812 Posted: Mon May 28, 2018 3:20 pm Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: |
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How are you approaching it at present? |
I have more or less stopped short-term trading. I am into positional - to - intermediate term trading / investing. I maintain two portfolios - 1. Momentum stocks and 2. Undervalued stocks. Momentum strategy is mechanical / systematic strategies that I regularly rebalance (exit stocks / add if system suggests). Undervalued strategy, which is longer term - 1 to 3 yrs - depends on various things and runs more or less opposite to momentum (low correlation btw the two which is why I run these two simultaneously).
In case of momentum strategy, if market is in a downtrend as defined by the system then no buys are done, only exits allowed. This strategy is in no buy mode so waiting now...
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #813 Posted: Mon May 28, 2018 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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Sun08,
I still have some work to do to compute midcap/smallcap breadth data. It is not yet ready. Will update once it is ready.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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apka
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| Post: #814 Posted: Mon May 28, 2018 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | | apka wrote: |
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How are you approaching it at present? |
I have more or less stopped short-term trading. I am into positional - to - intermediate term trading / investing. I maintain two portfolios - 1. Momentum stocks and 2. Undervalued stocks. Momentum strategy is mechanical / systematic strategies that I regularly rebalance (exit stocks / add if system suggests). Undervalued strategy, which is longer term - 1 to 3 yrs - depends on various things and runs more or less opposite to momentum (low correlation btw the two which is why I run these two simultaneously).
In case of momentum strategy, if market is in a downtrend as defined by the system then no buys are done, only exits allowed. This strategy is in no buy mode so waiting now... |
Cool. Thanks for the reply... Let's see now, I'm expecting market breadth to get better medium-long term from June onwards. |
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Sun08
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| Post: #815 Posted: Mon May 28, 2018 6:57 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Sun08,
I still have some work to do to compute midcap/smallcap breadth data. It is not yet ready. Will update once it is ready. |
tks in advance |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #816 Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | SwingTrader wrote: | Sun08,
I still have some work to do to compute midcap/smallcap breadth data. It is not yet ready. Will update once it is ready. |
tks in advance |
Here is the Mid/Small cap breadth oscillator. I think this one is too erratic to draw any conclusions. The current state is clear, breadth is very weak. But last year was very erratic with too many signals.
This chart could be a bit of a problem to update correctly as stocks could go in and out of my mid/small selection. I have defined mid/small category as market cap between 1,500 cr and 20,000 cr so borderline stocks could drift in and out of the selection. Also past history is difficult to build as we don't have past market cap data (per day). We could compute it dynamically but that is tricky and slow process. Building historical data could be a slow process.
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Sun08
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| Post: #817 Posted: Thu May 31, 2018 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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| SwingTrader wrote: | Here is the Mid/Small cap breadth oscillator. I think this one is too erratic to draw any conclusions. The current state is clear, breadth is very weak. But last year was very erratic with too many signals.
This chart could be a bit of a problem to update correctly as stocks could go in and out of my mid/small selection. I have defined mid/small category as market cap between 1,500 cr and 20,000 cr so borderline stocks could drift in and out of the selection. Also past history is difficult to build as we don't have past market cap data (per day). We could compute it dynamically but that is tricky and slow process. Building historical data could be a slow process. |
tks a lot. your difficulty is noted and appreciated. but if you see from 2017, both charts seem to be forming similar multiple bottoms (lows). |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #818 Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:24 am Post subject: |
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NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 1st Jun 2018
Nothing much to say at this point. Market breadth continues to be poor.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #819 Posted: Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:53 am Post subject: |
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NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 8th June 2018
Both long term & medium term breadth at the bottom. The reversal from the bottom is slow/delayed on the breadth oscillator. I would suggest that one looks at price action from here to spot the reversal. The medium term (red line) would reverse faster but long term will reverse quite late after the price reversal has already taken place.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #820 Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:37 am Post subject: |
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NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 15th Jun 2018
Not much change in the breadth stats. But I would like to stress that one should just watch the price action on various indexes for clear bullish signs. The signal on breadth oscillator will be late (for bullish signals).
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apka
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| Post: #821 Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:07 pm Post subject: |
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Dow is around 2000 points down from all time high that's about -7.5%
Snp 500 is about 100 points down from all time high that's about -3.5%
And NASDAQ made another 52 week high
Total disparity in investing
If you have a US counterpart please ask him what the hell is going on with the sentiments in USA  |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #822 Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:13 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | Dow is around 2000 points down from all time high that's about -7.5%
Snp 500 is about 100 points down from all time high that's about -3.5%
And NASDAQ made another 52 week high
Total disparity in investing
If you have a US counterpart please ask him what the hell is going on with the sentiments in USA |
Yes, very strange. All this just confirms the fact that it is different every time. No idea how all this is going to unravel in the future.
There is a very good podcast I had heard recently related to this topic - Meb Faber interviewing James Montier. Faber asked if he knew about any indicator at all that is indicating that the bull market in US could continue from here (since almost any valuation metric is showing high to very high valuations in the market). Montier said the only thing that was justifying high valuations were the low interest rates and that too is now coming to an end and now he doesn't know how high valuations can be justified going forward.
Excellent podcast, please do hear when you find time : Meb Faber interviews James Montier
Not sure what the various sentiment indicators are pointing to over there, I have not gone into it in detail for quite some time.
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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Fisgas
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| Post: #823 Posted: Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| I had the confusion about the sentiment charts which is now removed after reading this post. I want to know more about it as well. May you guide me properly in this regard? Can you send people send my the links of the internet sources related to this topic? |
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #824 Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 9:54 am Post subject: |
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| Fisgas wrote: | | I had the confusion about the sentiment charts which is now removed after reading this post. I want to know more about it as well. May you guide me properly in this regard? Can you send people send my the links of the internet sources related to this topic? |
The best resource for such breadth indicators is http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_indicators
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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SwingTrader
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| Post: #825 Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:02 am Post subject: |
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NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 13th July 2018
I have done some modifications to the chart. I have added short term breadth (red color line). This indicates 13 day market breadth. I have also changed the index from NIFTY50 to NIFTY500 as this would give a more clear picture of what is happening in the market (vs the breadth). NIFTY50 is being controlled by a handful of stocks and this not representative of the whole market.
Chart details :
Short term breadth (13 day) : RED line
Medium term breadth (50 day) : BLUE line
Long term breadth (200 day) : Green line
NIFTY500 Index : Black line
There is really no serious breadth behind the current up move. This is clear at the moment. There has been no significant improvement in the medium breadth during this up move (from 28th Jun low).
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Srikanth Kurdukar
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