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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
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Post: #841   PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:
difficult to compare yearwise charts. would love to see one for 2007-2017


We still don't have data before 2010, we need to build it. Need to work on it. In any case, a single chart of such long duration would be too cluttered to make sense. For example, see the attached chart from 2010 to now. Difficult to make any sense Very Happy

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zzz
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Post: #842   PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We still don't have data before 2010, we need to build it. Need to work on it.--------------- attached chart from 2010 to now. Difficult to make any sense




Sir,
Please give year wise charts in excel data. It may it help to calculate easy
Thanks,
subhash
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Sun08
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Post: #843   PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Sun08 wrote:
difficult to compare yearwise charts. would love to see one for 2007-2017


We still don't have data before 2010, we need to build it. Need to work on it. In any case, a single chart of such long duration would be too cluttered to make sense. For example, see the attached chart from 2010 to now. Difficult to make any sense Very Happy


yes, I understand. what I would like to see is the long term one, period being 8 years. If you could remove short and medium term from it. tks
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Post: #844   PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2018 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 27th JUL 2018

This move seems to have legs as medium term trend continues to improve first time since April, it could go on for little more while before market pauses to see if real buying is coming in or not.

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Post: #845   PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2018 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:
SwingTrader wrote:
Here is the Mid/Small cap breadth oscillator. I think this one is too erratic to draw any conclusions. The current state is clear, breadth is very weak. But last year was very erratic with too many signals.

This chart could be a bit of a problem to update correctly as stocks could go in and out of my mid/small selection. I have defined mid/small category as market cap between 1,500 cr and 20,000 cr so borderline stocks could drift in and out of the selection. Also past history is difficult to build as we don't have past market cap data (per day). We could compute it dynamically but that is tricky and slow process. Building historical data could be a slow process.


tks a lot. your difficulty is noted and appreciated. but if you see from 2017, both charts seem to be forming similar multiple bottoms (lows).


looks like mid/small caps did bottom out a month or so after your post.
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Post: #846   PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

srikanth please post updated market breadth chart.......
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Post: #847   PostPosted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 3rd Aug 2018

Breadth is strong at the moment, no let off as of now. This could go on for little more while before a breather. I would watch closely how medium term breadth holds when short-term takes a dive down during the next market pullback. If medium term breadth holds (doesn't go down too much) which short-term takes a trip down, the rally then could carry on for some more time. Let us see how it goes ...

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Post: #848   PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks srikanth......
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Post: #849   PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 10th Aug 2018

The down move atleast for the short-term looks to have started. How the medium term oscillator behaves now is important. I would like to see the short term oscillator bottom out and head up and medium term stay above 0 during this time. This would be encouraging for the intermediate move continuing further.

Long term oscillator has not budged as most stocks are still below 200 SMA.

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Post: #850   PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

srikanth please post updated chart for this week
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Post: #851   PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 17th AUG 2018

Encouraging action by medium term breadth (blue line), it is holding up well in decline of short-term breadth (red line). As long as this holds, I am expecting positive action in the near term. If medium term declines below zero then we might have to get cautious as there could be some weakness. But as of now things look okay.

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Last edited by SwingTrader on Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:14 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post: #852   PostPosted: Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks
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Post: #853   PostPosted: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 24th AUG 2018

Market at crucial point. Have to see if market rolls over like Apr end or continues to consolidate and maybe moves higher. The short & medium term breadth actions are similar to Apr end but if market is to move higher from there then the breadth must hold.

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Post: #854   PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Advance-Decline Line

The advance decline line shown on our "Breadth Charts" page just can't be used. The reason is the way AD line is computed. The computation just adds up the days number of advances minus number of declines to previous day's value. The line just keeps going down, very rarely going up. The reason could be due to the fact that a significant majority of stocks stay down even during long rallies. Even though most stocks rally on a good day, lot more stocks fall on down days. The result is the AD line that keeps going down. I have not seen this happen for US markets. One way around this is to compute only on NIFTY 500 index stocks but tracking index changes and bringing that into the computation is a major headache.

I have done a small modification. Instead of continuously adding net adv-decl to previous day's value I do a rolling advance-decline computation. Any particular day's value is the sum of net adv-decl of previous one year. The result is a much better usable advance-decline line. Please find the image of the same attached below.

This is only experimental, please use your judgement for interpretation. What I feel looking at this is that the market decline this year was significant. It is clear from this AD line. The AD line went down to the levels seen in 2011 & 2013 which is something. This rally could have legs after all. This is just my estimate based on this chart. We could decline from here, we can't be sure. But this is one bullish case to think about. Bearish cases are many in the current market.

We like to hear comments from others....

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Post: #855   PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST, just want to lay here an additional info regarding cardiff indicator for S&P500... Its gone active only like 4-5 times in last 100 years. Attached is image. Now the bull run is into that zone. Im expecting 10% further upside in Dow before correction starts. Something we can keep watch on.

Quote:

In the wake of past occasions when it rose above 2.0, for example, equities stayed high or even continued rising "for many months, sometimes even a couple of years." However, he continues, "in all cases, a major decline or crash followed, pulling down stock prices by 50% or more


Theres still time i think.

I couldn't find if the same could be used for our market indexes.
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