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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
Gemini
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Post: #91   PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quite enriching thread. Thanks ST an dother experienced friends.
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rameshraja
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Post: #92   PostPosted: Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST,

Global markets will not be givenup till mid September, 2012. Last FOMC minutes, seem to suggest Fed Bond buying is to take place in September, as many members want Fed to take fast action as time is running out for Mr Bernanke as elections are around November.

The QE3 looks certain on coming September 13th of FOMC meeting as its going to be Mr Bernanke's last chance to act. If Romney wins, he will be pushed to corner.

Global markets will be in uptrend till Bernanke shows his card.. Once QE3 is done, world market should start correcting in anticipation of presidential election results.

As regards our market for this settlement, if Nifty Future manages to close above Friday's high in 30MTF, it can well headed to 5470 - 5505 for this settlement with SL at 5390 in 30MTF close.

Till Mid september 2012, our market also will keep dancing to tunes of US Market.
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vinay28
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Post: #93   PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oh good ST. Let's try to see all possiblitties. Mr. Raja has a point though
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SwingTrader
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Post: #94   PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rameshraja wrote:
ST,

Global markets will not be givenup till mid September, 2012. Last FOMC minutes, seem to suggest Fed Bond buying is to take place in September, as many members want Fed to take fast action as time is running out for Mr Bernanke as elections are around November.

The QE3 looks certain on coming September 13th of FOMC meeting as its going to be Mr Bernanke's last chance to act. If Romney wins, he will be pushed to corner.

Global markets will be in uptrend till Bernanke shows his card.. Once QE3 is done, world market should start correcting in anticipation of presidential election results.

As regards our market for this settlement, if Nifty Future manages to close above Friday's high in 30MTF, it can well headed to 5470 - 5505 for this settlement with SL at 5390 in 30MTF close.

Till Mid september 2012, our market also will keep dancing to tunes of US Market.


True Mr. Ramesh. I have just highlighted the current overbought situation. Market can stay overbought for extended period and mid sept is not far away.

I am not sure about QE3 / US elections etc. I mean....not sure how they are going to affect. Let us see...

For current expiry the options data is indicating NF below 5300...just my opinion.

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SwingTrader
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Post: #95   PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally after much delay things are moving in line with options sentiment. I am expecting/hoping Very Happy we get bearish extreme on the options sentiment in the next few days. Keeping fingers crossed on this.

About my trade - I am in SEP 5500 PUTs, unhedged now since 24th. I will let these run unhedged as things are bearish. I will think of adjustments to this trade only on a strong breakout above recent highs OR a significant decline (to protect profits) OR change in options sentiment bias (which is not nearby anyway).

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vinay28
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Post: #96   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST, if you have bought 5500 put, why should you "think of adjustments to this trade" in case there is a significant decline to "protect profit"? You will make more profit if there is a decline. Or is it that I haven't understood your statement?

By the way, QE3 now looks less likely than ECB dole out, which is on 12th sept. In such a case, market can slide till 12th before starting upmove again.
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pkholla
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Post: #97   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay: ST: "I will think of adjustments to this trade only on a strong breakout above recent highs": i think ST means if sharp rise in NF so sharp decline in put value. Rgds, Prakash Holla
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SwingTrader
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Post: #98   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
ST, if you have bought 5500 put, why should you "think of adjustments to this trade" in case there is a significant decline to "protect profit"? You will make more profit if there is a decline. Or is it that I haven't understood your statement?

By the way, QE3 now looks less likely than ECB dole out, which is on 12th sept. In such a case, market can slide till 12th before starting upmove again.


My options trades are all about adjustments. Adjustments are necessary if trade goes wrong but they are also necessary to protect profits. If NF declines significantly my trade will go deep into profits, at that point if NF turns up sharply a single day can wipe out half the profits. As my options trade goes into profit I keep adjusting the trade actively to lock in profits. Without this trading long options is a difficult task (the reason why so few traders succeed trading long options).

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vinay28
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Post: #99   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oh ok
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SwingTrader
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Post: #100   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow! look at the options sentiment chart for today. Big big change. Control has changed big time today. We have reached bearish extremes very quickly, this points to near-term future bullish move. But before that we could easily see few days of continuing bearish moves. Next few days will be very interesting...
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vinay28
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Post: #101   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw sgxnifty chart that showed a 100 high 5tf candle with low of about 5252 sept fut. May be that's a hint
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SwingTrader
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Post: #102   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vinay28 wrote:
I saw sgxnifty chart that showed a 100 high 5tf candle with low of about 5252 sept fut. May be that's a hint


Interesting!

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p_wangdu
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Post: #103   PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Wow! look at the options sentiment chart for today. Big big change. Control has changed big time today. We have reached bearish extremes very quickly, this points to near-term future bullish move. But before that we could easily see few days of continuing bearish moves. Next few days will be very interesting...
Very Happy sirji thanks for your timely posts.
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bullseye
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Post: #104   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Life's keen observations gives an insight to the future.......Great observation.....@ Vinay and ST...Thanx thumbup1
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deepakms
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Post: #105   PostPosted: Fri Aug 31, 2012 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dear ST,

Would like to know where to find the options sentiments charts.
I mean where do you post those charts from,is it available on NSE ?

Rgds
Deepak
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