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Market Sentiment
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Author Market Sentiment
Sun08
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Post: #916   PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 1st Nov 2018

A day or two more as short-term breadth tops, it will be interesting to see what will happen after that. This is a bear market rally at the moment. Nothing much has changed for intermediate term breadth. Lot more of the damage that has happened has to get repaired before things can improve.


what is the time lag for intermediate time breadth? I suspect that by the time it becomes bullish, market could have made a top.
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Sun08
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Post: #917   PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
NSE Market Breadth Oscillator as on 1st Nov 2018

A day or two more as short-term breadth tops, it will be interesting to see what will happen after that. This is a bear market rally at the moment. Nothing much has changed for intermediate term breadth. Lot more of the damage that has happened has to get repaired before things can improve.


what is the time lag for intermediate time breadth? I suspect that by the time it becomes bullish, market could have made a top.
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SwingTrader
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Post: #918   PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sun08 wrote:


what is the time lag for intermediate time breadth? I suspect that by the time it becomes bullish, market could have made a top.


Look at the May '18 to Jul '18 decline and intermediate term recovery. The improvement in medium term breadth in mid Jul is all that I look for. I don't wait for medium term breadth to go above 0. Medium term breadth is based on 50 period SMA of stocks. If many stocks start to get close to 50 SMA then medium term breadth starts to improve. This clue is sufficient to look at stocks that are coming out to good bases and could be traded.

Unless by market top you are referring the top of current short-term move. I would not initiate serious trades in such short-term moves. Small trades of 2-3 days could be taken during short term breadth improvement phase but one has to be very selective and quick to take both profits & losses.

This is my opinion, not recommendation.

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Sun08
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Post: #919   PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
Sun08 wrote:


what is the time lag for intermediate time breadth? I suspect that by the time it becomes bullish, market could have made a top.


Look at the May '18 to Jul '18 decline and intermediate term recovery. The improvement in medium term breadth in mid Jul is all that I look for. I don't wait for medium term breadth to go above 0. Medium term breadth is based on 50 period SMA of stocks. If many stocks start to get close to 50 SMA then medium term breadth starts to improve. This clue is sufficient to look at stocks that are coming out to good bases and could be traded.

Unless by market top you are referring the top of current short-term move. I would not initiate serious trades in such short-term moves. Small trades of 2-3 days could be taken during short term breadth improvement phase but one has to be very selective and quick to take both profits & losses.

This is my opinion, not recommendation.


tks. yes, I meant current short term up move only. BTW, nifty 50dsma crossed below 100 today.
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Post: #920   PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 2nd Nov 2018

Short term oscillator close to the top. There has been a slight uptick in both medium & long term oscillators but they could continue to gain only if the next down move is not severe. If medium term starts to move up, we could see a longer medium term move. But as of now this is still a bear market rally. Many stocks did mount decent rallies recently but many more stocks need to participate to see sustained up move.

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Post: #921   PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have observed one thing which is interesting. There was a bearish divergence leading to the Sep 2018 top as marked on the chart below (index kept going up whereas breadth short term breadth diverged). Now are we see a bullish divergence with index going down and short term breadth diverging. I am not saying this is significant but I found it interesting. Let us see how it pans out.
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ca.krishna
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Post: #922   PostPosted: Sat Nov 03, 2018 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks ST, Interesting Observation and to a greater extent seems logical. Further I could observe that the Long Term and Medium term breadth is also slightly (very very slowly) picking up at the bottom.

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Krishna
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Post: #923   PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 5th NOV 2018
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Post: #924   PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 6th Nov 2018

Medium term oscillator wakes up. If we don't breakdown after Diwali, we could see more upside. Sideways action would be okay, but a breakdown would take medium term back down.

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Post: #925   PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 9th Nov 2018

Medium term breadth has seen decent improvement. Now I am hoping we don't see too much of a deterioration during the short-term breadth's down trip (hopefull during brief short-term price pullback). If we get a mild pullback, we could see another strong move up.

Quite a few stocks are breaking out above from well formed bases, this is encouraging.

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Post: #926   PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 12th Nov 2018

Markets are at a crucial juncture. Medium term breadh is getting stronger and long term breadth too ticking higher. As long as market does not sell off hard, we could see more upside in the near future. This is my opinion. Many stocks are forming decent bases, as long as these bases stand, we could see more upside after a small ongoing breather. Keeping fingers crossed.

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Post: #927   PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 14th Nov 2018

Sharp increase in medium term breadth today, it is flying now whereas short term breadth is on its way down. This is positive. If medium term breadth holds well during short breadth down cycle then it will continue to move up in the next short term breadth up cycle. This could take prices significantly higher from where they are now. Let us see how it goes, current it looks good.

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Post: #928   PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 15th Nov 2018

Short term breadth continues to deteriorate but medium continues its steady climb up. This indicates underlying strength. As of now breadth is encouraging and indicates continued bullishness.

Many stocks that had formed good bases in the last few weeks have broken out strongly.

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Post: #929   PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 16th Nov 2018

Medium term breadth is showing strength even though short term breadth is declining. This is a good sign for continuation of the current bullish move in the market. Short term breadth, most likely, will not go to the bottom but would turn up from just below zero. This is what I think. If this happens it would mean good underlying strength for some more upside.

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Post: #930   PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2018 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NSE Breadth Oscillator as on 20th Nov 2018

Short term breadth is now below zero. Medium term breadth is holding well. I think now once short term breadth bottoms, medium term breadth will shoot up along with short term breadth and take market higher. This is just my opinion. This scenario would likely happen if we don't completely breakdown.

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