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Meaning of NR7 pattern ! |
Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #346 Posted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:44 am Post subject: |
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Nfty last cl 11201.
Nfty last low around 11186.
Nfty last 512DMA around 11186.
*** Attached Chart ***:
shows Nfty is trying to take support around 512DMA 11186, where ydays low is touched.
Nfty started its last 1Y bull run in Oct2019 from around 11000 lvl.
Next psychological strong support area is around 10500 +/-.
CoalIndia B@174 avg price is currently in loss CurPrice is 167.
But its a pure Dividend play ! Hope it recovers.
Quote: |
RAJDESAI1967:
Posted: 28 Feb 2020
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pats-----any reasoning for taking such a far of ce @ 12200 @ 12/-
just for knowledge..askd
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@RAJDESAI1967
1) Prvsly I had used this swing strategy. Mostly works in extreme Gap-dn or Gap-ups. Success ratio 70%. Not sure abt current trade. Just a try.
2) Game plan:
I baught 22 lots of 26Mar 12200CEs @avr price 13. (placed order was for 30 lots at diff strikes).
I booked 12 lots around 17 avg same day.
Profit:
17 - 13 = 4 per lot.
4 x 75 lotsize = 300/-
300 x 12 lots booked = 3600/- total profit, which I use to bring dn CostPrice of balance 10 lots in hand.
3)
Gross CostPrice of Balance 10 lots = 10 lots x 13 x 75 lotsize = 9750/-
Net CostPrice of balance 10 lots = 9750 - 3600 = 6150/-
Resultant CP per lot = 6150 / ( 10 x 75 ) = 8/-
4) Now I have whole March month balance to take care of Theta (Time Decay). No need of SL, atleast as of now.
5) Hoping for market rebounce sharply in next week, then I may be in good profit.
6) Minus points: IV of 12200CE is high around 18. Generally, I use this strategy, when IV is around 10 +/-. So risk of losing some premium is there.
.. Another risk , if market slide dn further, Premium may come dn.
... But then option buyers always take risk !
I enjoy playing with diff Option Strategies in spare time ! I had started with just 3 lots some years back with abv play.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #347 Posted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:50 am Post subject: |
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Nfty last cl 11132.
11772 is imp lvl for both Bulls-n-Bears !
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #348 Posted: Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:40 pm Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 11131.
Booked intraday short in Nfty from 11245 to 11128, because Nfty slipped below 11250. High till now is 11356, low 11082.
Not carrying any short position in indices.
Update:
1) Booked last lot of RIL 26Mar 1380PEs just now at 87, high till now is 89. Buy of all the 4 lots are 14, 3 lots were booked 2 days back.
87 - 14 = 73 x 500 lotsize = 36000/- profit in todays single lot.
I may miss higher returns in this position if RIL goes dn further, but IV of this 1380PE is very high around 39. If volatility in market and this put subsides heavily, then I may loss todays best returns.
2) Due to todays profit in RIL, Holding Nfty 26Mar 12200CEs balance 10lots avg PPrice 8.
Todays low price is 8.60 till now, just near my PPrice !
3) Pharma stocks showing good upside .
Quote: |
Posted: 28 Feb 2020
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$/INR surging. ..
Corona may be a one time opportunity for India, instead of a scare !
Just a thought !
Pharma and IT stocks looks interesting for my trading.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #349 Posted: Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:03 am Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 10900.
Imp lvl of 10978 broken !
Upadate:
1) My Nfty 26Mar 12200CE , 12 lots were sold in profits.
For Balance 10 lots, SL @7.90 broken today. PPrice was 8.
Booked loss of 750q x 1.10 = 825/-
Balance capital saved = 6000 - 825 = 5175.
No stuborn attitute, SL disciplin mentained !
Capital saved is money earned.
2) Though I booked good profits in my RIL 1380PEs prvsly around 87, but todays high was around 146.
... This is called bad luck of good luck !
For my own trading, Next logical support of Nfty is around 10500, but volatility can produce extreme swings in both side.
Keeping away for the time being, untill oversold indicators show some reversal signs.
... Again 11772 is imp lvls for both Bulls-n-Bears.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #350 Posted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:39 am Post subject: |
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Nfty low till now 10615.
Near Sept supp.
Next supp 10500, as said before. Nfty bullish bounce lvls may be 10500 and 10000, as per monthly chanel chart posted few days ago.
IVix around 28+, may be too high to sustain. Upper range 30 to 33 !
I am quoting my prvs post:
Quote: |
.. Consensus bearish view may not be good for BEARS for too long time !
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #351 Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:47 am Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 10460
BN 26470.
For my trading Started accumulating Apr Mnthly expiry BNfty CEs, with proper SL.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #352 Posted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 9567.
BN curPrice 23827.
IVix 41.
1)
Since , no technicals are working, lets try simple arithmatics:
Recent high of Nfty is 12400:
1) Deduction of 25% from 12400 is 9300.
2) Deduction of 30% from 12400 is 8680.
3) Deduction of 35% from 12400 is 8060.
4) Deduction of 40% from 12400 is 7440.
5) Deduction of 45% from 12400 is 6820.
6) Deduction of 50% from 12400 is 6200.
...
...
10) Deduction of 100% frim 12400 is 0000. ))
Hope the Great Fall of Covid-19 may stop at one of the above level, and may not go into Negative zone !
2)
...
Tried 4 different puts of 4 arbitrary Nfty FnO stocks, all are in profits.
Booked great profits in all 4 !
... Thats the force of Bear Market !!
3)
Added more April Mthly Expiry BNfty CEs. Just small qty at a time.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #353 Posted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:42 am Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 8624.
BN curPrice 21397.
10% lower circuit on both indices !!!
Hope all stock markets in the world will seriously consider Ban on the Algo Trading and stop using of computer AI ( Artificial Intelligence ) in markets.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #354 Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:38 am Post subject: |
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Nfty last cl 9955.
*** Attached Mnthly Chart ***
... shows an interesting pattern of reversal.
Generally after 2 or 3 mnthly Red Heikin-Ashi candles, a reversal is posible. But be careful ! ... That is NOT a rule, just a probablity and it may fail also in multi-month Bear Phase !!
If on mnthly chart, Nfty close abv 21DEMA - around 11350, then Bulls may take-over again, but - if etc etc are always there !.
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chetan83 Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010 Posts: 2036
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Post: #355 Posted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:26 pm Post subject: |
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Pats wrote: | Nfty curPrice 9567.
BN curPrice 23827.
IVix 41.
1)
Since , no technicals are working, lets try simple arithmatics:
Recent high of Nfty is 12400:
1) Deduction of 25% from 12400 is 9300.
2) Deduction of 30% from 12400 is 8680.
3) Deduction of 35% from 12400 is 8060.
4) Deduction of 40% from 12400 is 7440.
5) Deduction of 45% from 12400 is 6820.
6) Deduction of 50% from 12400 is 6200.
...
...
10) Deduction of 100% frim 12400 is 0000. ))
Hope the Great Fall of Covid-19 may stop at one of the above level, and may not go into Negative zone !
2)
...
Tried 4 different puts of 4 arbitrary Nfty FnO stocks, all are in profits.
Booked great profits in all 4 !
... Thats the force of Bear Market !!
3)
Added more April Mthly Expiry BNfty CEs. Just small qty at a time.
*** For Education Purpose Only *** |
Hi,
Which strike price in monthly BnF CE?
Regards,
Chetan Kumar. |
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #356 Posted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:44 am Post subject: |
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@chetan
1) It does'nt make any difference, which strike one uses for a trade, as long as one is fast enough to book option profits in such a volatile market.
Actually we should use this high volatility to our benefits.
2) For eq:
I had used Apr 30Apr expiry BN 32000CE.
My last 2 days avg Buy Price for 20 lots was 56.
I booked 15 lots around avg price of 95.
Approx 39 pts profit per lot.
5 lots still holding @56.
3) I had already explained this strategy last week.
I may repeat such trades, with 32000Ce or 31000CE or 30000CE etc, as long as I get low prices on intraday dips.
4) One may try this strategy with 3 lots only, with proper SL.
Pl remember, I had exited one such trade with small loss to protect my capital. Trading Disciplin is important to remain alive in markets !
Hope this helps !!
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #357 Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:35 am Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 9343.
BN curPrice 23256.
1) 26Mar Exp BNfty 27000CEs avg B@192 avg S@240.
... Booked 48 pts profit per lot.
2) 1 Nfty short trade was in loss. Booked 18pts loss per lot.
3) ... Missed Nfty longs trade, which could be more profitable . But its OK.
4) May enter BN longs, if market cool-off and get a chance at lower lvl.
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #358 Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:13 am Post subject: |
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Nfty curPrice 8844
BN curPrice 21556.
Started accumulating 26Mar expiry BNfty CEs.
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chetan83 Brown Belt
Joined: 19 Feb 2010 Posts: 2036
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Post: #359 Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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Pats wrote: | Nfty curPrice 8844
BN curPrice 21556.
Started accumulating 26Mar expiry BNfty CEs.
**** For Education Purpose Only *** |
Banknifty Strike rates? |
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Pats White Belt
Joined: 08 Sep 2013 Posts: 407
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Post: #360 Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:40 am Post subject: |
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Nfty last cl 8468.
BN last cl 20580.
Quote: |
chetan83 Posted: 18 Mar 2020
...
Banknifty Strike rates?
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@chetan,
My trades:
1)
26Mar BN 27000CEs avg B@42 - last cl is little below my BuyPrice.
26Mar BN 27800CEs avg B@26 - last cl is little abv my BuyPrice.
2)
26Mar HDFCbank 840PEs B@26 S@43. lotsize 500. 1 lot only.
43 - 26 = 17 pts x 500 lot = 8500 profit.
This profit may compensate of loss in BN CEs , if any !
Low was 15, high was 54.
Buy order of 2 lots placed at 10, was not executed.
3) Frankly speaking, I would have got more profit, if I would have shorted Nfty. But I am more comfortable in CEs.
4) Just for new traders :
One of my friends trade in 50 and 100 lots at a time.
His profit is big and loss is also big. But he is always hopeful of some big profits , at the year end, which has not happened from last 10 years. I wish him best luck with lot of caution abt his capital !
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