iCharts Discussions

[Pats]

Nfty last cl 8263.
BN last cl 20083.
IVix at 72.

For my trading, I consider, Nfty dip sup is at 6664, but in-between due to excess volatility fast upward rebound not ruled out in coming days/weeks !!

Yday could not update trade position, as fiber Network was down, so updating now !

1)
After adding more lots at todays lower lvls ( low is 13, high is 62) , 26Mar BN 27000CEs avg price brought down to 24.

BN 27000CEs avg Buy Price 24 , Sold at avg 51.

51 - 24 = 27 pts profit per lot.
27 x 20 lotsize = Rs.540 profit per lot.
540 x 12 lots = 6480 profit.

Holding balance 8 lots at avg B@24

2)
Added 27800CEs at lower lvl.

Holding all 10 lots 26Mar 27800CEs with new avg B@18

Hope it will not give any loss.

.. By the way, March, 2020, steep fall in global stock markets, once again proves that, not necessarily , long term investment, can be profitable.
... Trading seems to be much safer for small traders like me !!
... Just my personal view !!!


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Trade Update:

1)
Booked balance 8 lots 26Mar BN 27000CEs avg S@28 (Buy was avg @24)
Only 4 pts profit per lot.

2)
Booked all 5 lots 26Mar BN 27800CEs avg S@20 (Buy was avg @1
Only 2 pts profit per lot.

Was not expecting HDFCBANK and other bank's ADRs in negative today.
BN may go up, but considering week-end, thought better to save the capital !

No FnO position now.

Will not be able to attend remaining market hrs, as will have to attend, local Kovid-19 prevention meating !


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty last cl 8745.
BN last cl 20317.
Ivix 7% dn from 72+ to 67.

*** Attached Nfty and BN 5Y Mnthly Chart shows: ***

For my own, trading I consider following setup in comming days/weeks:

1) Nfty sup around 10/21 c/over 8250 +/- , sustaining above this may take Nfty to 9000 to 9280 - which is the resistance on 1Hr channel chart. But a whip-saw re-visit toward recent low at 7800 +/- NOT ruled-out !
Next sup is around Jan2016 low at 6664 +/-, which I already mentioned in my prvs post !

2)
BN sup around 10/21 c/over 18000 +/- , sustaining above this may take BN to 23800 to 25600 range - which is the resistance on 1Hr channel chart. But a whip-saw re-visit toward recent low at 18800 +/- NOT ruled-out !
Nest dip sup is around Jan2016 low at 13350 +/-.

3)
By the way, stock exchange regulators , yday's short-selling restrictions may show only temp swings in the market.
After that, Kovid-19 and other economic fundamentals may take their precedence again.
... Traders with low cash / stock Demat positions, may find these restriction, somewhat problemetic - for FnO trades !

At-least , 2008 market fall, suggest so ! Rest - market-makers are the supreme boss, Korona's advantage is well-played by these boys, I guess !

4) I may prefer, intraday trades (long or short ) in cash segment, instead of FnO !

*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[chetan83]

Great analysis, thanks.

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 7704.
BN curPrice 17047.
IVix 72.

2nd lower circuit completed in this same Mar2020 mnth !

Posiblity of the 3rd LC in coming days ? ... may be OR may not be. High volatility do wonders to stock markets in both directions - and perticularly to Heavy Option Premiums - Option Buyers should be double careful !

1)
Following message was posted by me, few mnths or a yr back. Do'nt remember exact date. I was not expecting these stock's todays lvl coming so fast. But so-far-so good ! Prvs cur Price, my expected buy lvls, and todays low prices are given :

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 7805.
BN curPrice 16970.
IVix curPrice 81.

If IVix cool-off towards 20 minus, then FnO trades may be good for trading !


Started accumulating IdeaCel around 3.35 in good qty.

52Wk low is 2.40.
52Wk hifh 20.45.
Hope, if may achieve target 7, 10, 15+ in coming mnths / yrs.


Most of the stocks which I started investing from last 2days, for my 5Y portfolio plan, are luckily up:

Maruti CurPrice 4758.
Eicher curPrice 14460.
Reliance curPrice 1006.
TCS curPrice 1691.
etc etc.

Even if these stocks show more correction in coming days, hope these will achieve my long term goal targets !


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty last cl 8660.
IVix last cl 70.39.

For my positional (10 days) trading view, I consider following:

*** Attached Chart shows : ***

1)
Nfty 20EMA 9443 is still below 50EMA at 10575, so if bullish sentiments persist, then max upside can be btw the range 9432 to 10580, as of now !

2)
But a re-visit towards DC(20) days low around 7511, is NOT imposible - if global sentiments deteriorate.

3)
Momentum(12 days) indicator is improving from -4000 to -2000, but still below zero, so posiblity of feasling-out the current positive swing, is not ruled-out.

4)
MacD histo is trying to go above zero line, if goes above and sustained above zero line, can be positive for market, but is still in bearish zone, on daily basis.

5)
Chaikin Volatility index is near zero, and looks good for bulls.
But IVix is still abv/near 70, and thats not good for bulls.

6)
In-all , signals are mixed, and Option Prices are way above NORMAL levels, so difficult to trade.
I may avoid Nfty and BN Options for the time-being and may prefer stock instead !

*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty last cl 8597.
IVix slipped below 70.

Just for refreshing my memory:

1)
Nfty already achieved the range in Bold letters.

2)
... Nfty range upside and dnside in coming days, shown in Underlined letters . may still be a posiblity !

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 9050.
IVix at 50

UBband = 10332.
MidBBand = 8794.
LBband = 7255.

ADX = 51.
DMI Plus = 23 which is below DMI minus = 32, not good for bullish momentum !

Fibo Pivot range:
Upside: 9000 to 9600.
Dnside: 8600 to 8000.



Posibility of the prevs pattern repetition ? 9200 - a posible make or break level ?

*** Attached Chart of Nfty try to explore the next 10 days posible moves ***

Off-course Covod-19 plays imp role - positive or negative in Market Movements !


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 9023.
IVix 51.

Out of Covid lockdown boredom, trying some stray intra trades:

Today baught 30Apr 8500PE avg B@203 and Sold@214 ( curPrice is 215 ).

Just 11pts profit per lot or 11 x 75 lotsize x 5 lots = 4125/- total profit.

May repeat this trade again !
IV of this 8500PE is very high at 58, so is risky, but something better than nothing !

Gold again crossed above 45500, for my trade, expecting 47000 plus in coming days, due to posible troubles in Equity Markets !

*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 8989.
IVix 51.

Again traded 30Apr Nfty 8500PEs B@201 and S@224 !

Total profit is 23 pts x 75 lotsize x 5 lots = 8625/-.

Morning trade profit in same strike = 4125/-

Todays Total Profit : 4125 + 8625 = 12750/- .

Done for today !

MCX- Gold at 46200 .

*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 9089.
IVix below 50. Somewhat Good sign for option buyers !


I was anticipating that 9200 may be a stiff hurdle and ultimately, as was shown in last 2 days posted chart . .. Nfty may come down. My assumption looks like working.

Repeated the same ydays trade again:

Baught 5 lots April Expiry 8500PEs at avg B@128.
Booked 4 lots avg S@159. Currently trading at 158 !

Profit 24 pts x 75 lotsize x 4 lots = 9300/-

Holding balance 1 lot with SL 121.
Todays high till now is 185 , and low is 122 !

Generally I do not change the strike which starts giving consistent profits. It is also easy to track and trade !

But do not know, the actual closing today ! ... Be Careful for positional trades !


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 8901
IVix 48.

*** Attached Nfty Option 8500PE chart ***

Sold Balance 1 lot 30Apr Nfty 8500PE at 186 .
( Ydays Buy Price was 129 )

Profit 57 x 75 lotsize = 4275/-


By the way, yday I had wrongly mentioned 8500CE , instead of 8500PE. Now stand corrected in prvs post !

May trade again in same or some other strike, if opportunity exists !

Nfty immidiate support is around 8822 and then 8709 , as shown in prvsly posted chart 2 days back !

*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty last cl 9266.
IVix below 43.

$/INR 76.39.

... Could not attend market on 17Apr, so NO TRADE !

... Nfty trying hard to stay abv 9200, if failed then a Re-visit towards 8500 +/- !

*** But Attached Chart shows *** :

... posibility of a Head-and-Shoulder pattern , with 8500 in sight.

But A positive c/Over if sustains, then next resistance may be 9465 +/- some Whip-Saw !

Softning of Nfty P/E and ... Implid Volitility ( IV ) of CEs and PEs is MUST, for more Retail Participation !
In coming days, ... Expecting a sharp posible drop in both !


*** For Education Purpose Only ***

[Pats]

Nfty curPrice 9300.
IVix below 44.

Looks like Nfty unable to sustain at higher level and slid down ! ... But sustaining abv 9300 may not be good for Bears. Lets watch rest of the day !

Baught 4 lots 30Apr Nfty 8500PEs at Avg 52 and Sold 4 lots at avg 59.
Difference 59 - 52 = 7 pts.

Profit 7 x 75 lotsize x 4 lots = 2100/-.

... Something is better than nothing ! .. Will look for more opportunities to short again , whenever posible !

*** Attached 2 charts show, the Baught price and Sold price ! ***


*** For Education Purpose Only ***