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MTT System Discussion - Sep 2011
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Author MTT System Discussion - Sep 2011
SwingTrader
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Post: #31   PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sherbaaz wrote:


Hi ST,
As per original system which uses 2 different STS one for the current time frame and one higher time frame (4 to 5 times). If u can back test the same with both the STS it may generate much better and early trade signals. I have not used it much on intra charts but on eod it works well. The issue is to have both the STS on same chart. Even if we multiply the STS 4 or 5 times it distort the slope of STS which (for me personally) dont give the clear picture.

Regards,
Sherbaaz


Which original system uses 2 diff STS? you mean the rules I gave? The rules I gave has STS on higher timeframe and CCI on lower timeframe. Please explain....did not understand what you meant. In any case, I have tested the system with STS on both timeframes also, the result is not that good. Only CCI on lower timeframe makes sense as the trigger has to be fast once the momentum trend has been identified on the higher timeframe. STS on lower timeframe will be too slow. On higher timeframe STS sometimes lags but it is due to normal oscillator behavior, with any oscillator this issue is there.

EOD works fine...no issues. Intraday is the problem.

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girishhu1
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Post: #32   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi st sir,
in j chartsplus-premium, there is no option to export chart as png. so how to download/ save such charts?
regards,
girish
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Post: #33   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

girishhu1 wrote:
hi st sir,
in j chartsplus-premium, there is no option to export chart as png. so how to download/ save such charts?
regards,
girish


I use ScreenHunter Free software to capture the chart images. You can download the same from here: http://www.wisdom-soft.com/products/screenhunter_free.htm

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Post: #34   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

girishhu1 wrote:
hi st sir,
in j chartsplus-premium, there is no option to export chart as png. so how to download/ save such charts?
regards,
girish



hi girish. u can save with paint if u use windows. open chart u want to save. press 'Prt Scr' key on key board. open paint. press 'Ctrl + V'. web image will be pasted in paint. now select desired portion of screen u want to save. right click on mouse & select 'cut' option. click 'new' on file menu of paint. right click mouse & click 'paste'. click 'save' on file menu. select PNG in 'save as' column. save file. that's done. regards.
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Post: #35   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ST sir, we shall wait for the final draft from your side.. Very Happy
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Post: #36   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

smartcancerian wrote:
ST sir, we shall wait for the final draft from your side.. Very Happy


Yes, absolutely, I have promised it. I will post it soon. Have been doing lot of testing/working the whole of last week.

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Post: #37   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SwingTrader wrote:
sherbaaz wrote:


Hi ST,
As per original system which uses 2 different STS one for the current time frame and one higher time frame (4 to 5 times). If u can back test the same with both the STS it may generate much better and early trade signals. I have not used it much on intra charts but on eod it works well. The issue is to have both the STS on same chart. Even if we multiply the STS 4 or 5 times it distort the slope of STS which (for me personally) dont give the clear picture.

Regards,
Sherbaaz


Which original system uses 2 diff STS? you mean the rules I gave? The rules I gave has STS on higher timeframe and CCI on lower timeframe. Please explain....did not understand what you meant. In any case, I have tested the system with STS on both timeframes also, the result is not that good. Only CCI on lower timeframe makes sense as the trigger has to be fast once the momentum trend has been identified on the higher timeframe. STS on lower timeframe will be too slow. On higher timeframe STS sometimes lags but it is due to normal oscillator behavior, with any oscillator this issue is there.

EOD works fine...no issues. Intraday is the problem.


Hi ST,

Following are the rules in the book by Robert C Miner with regard to MULTIPLE TIME FRAME MOMENTUM STRATEGY. In the book he has explained the strategy by using 3 different indicators (if i remember correctly) one is DTOSC, STS & MACD.

Using STS trade set up rules:

1) if higher TF STS is in bullish mode and not OB then in smaller TF a long can be initiated following a bullish reversal as long as bullish reversal is made below the OB zone.

2) if higher TF STS is in bullish mode, but OB then no new long position. possible short position following a bearish reversal.

3) if higher TF is in bearish mode and not OS then short following a bearish reversal as long as the bearish reversal in made above the OS zone.

4) if higher TF is in bearish mode but OS then no new short position. possible long position following bullish reversal.

The above are the rules given by him in the book and also he has used STS in both higher and lower TF to define the momentum.

Regards,
Sherbaaz
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Post: #38   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 9:40 am    Post subject: . Reply with quote

sherbaaz wrote:

Hi ST,

Following are the rules in the book by Robert C Miner with regard to MULTIPLE TIME FRAME MOMENTUM STRATEGY. In the book he has explained the strategy by using 3 different indicators (if i remember correctly) one is DTOSC, STS & MACD.

Using STS trade set up rules:

1) if higher TF STS is in bullish mode and not OB then in smaller TF a long can be initiated following a bullish reversal as long as bullish reversal is made below the OB zone.

2) if higher TF STS is in bullish mode, but OB then no new long position. possible short position following a bearish reversal.

3) if higher TF is in bearish mode and not OS then short following a bearish reversal as long as the bearish reversal in made above the OS zone.

4) if higher TF is in bearish mode but OS then no new short position. possible long position following bullish reversal.

The above are the rules given by him in the book and also he has used STS in both higher and lower TF to define the momentum.

Regards,
Sherbaaz


Oh! you mean Rob Miner's original rules? Well...the issue is again same. I have tried those as a start. Main idea of the system, as I said in my first post, is from these rules but I have modified the rules/indicators because with the original rules the signals will be delayed most of the time (especially on intraday, on EOD no issues).

The only idea I have used is this: Momentum direction in higher timeframe may be used as a substitute for trend direction to take trades in lower timeframe following momentum reversals in lower timeframe. Using the same indicator on both timeframes does not work that well. Also Miner has mentioned that based on the scrip itself one may have to modify the indicators/parameters. Things depend on the character of the scrip itself.

Also, most importantly, one will have to fine tune Miner's system because the multiple timeframe momentum analysis idea is only 25% of Miner's system. As Miner mentions only using MTM does not work as it is only a piece of the whole puzzle. What I am trying to do here is to fine tune the MTM idea to create a whole system. It may not be as good as Miner's whole system but it will surely be less complicated.

BTW The ideas we are talking about are from Robert C Miner's excellent book HIGH PROBABILITY TRADING STRATEGIES. I recommend this book as it is a complete trading strategy book - setups, fib analysis - price & time, entry/exit techniques, position sizing, risk management etc.

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Post: #39   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:06 am    Post subject: Re: . Reply with quote

You are very right MTM is only 25% of miner work. and the easiest to understand in the entire book and most difficult one is the EW. I have not tried it on intra day charts. I will try to work out on intra charts (not very sure if get results as not doing any intra more) as I am using the same on eod charts.

Hope you will allow to put my thoughts here Very Happy

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Sherbaaz
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Post: #40   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:15 am    Post subject: Re: . Reply with quote

sherbaaz wrote:
You are very right MTM is only 25% of miner work. and the easiest to understand in the entire book and most difficult one is the EW. I have not tried it on intra day charts. I will try to work out on intra charts (not very sure if get results as not doing any intra more) as I am using the same on eod charts.

Hope you will allow to put my thoughts here Very Happy

Regards,
Sherbaaz


I don't want this discussion to go off topic so please post your ideas/strategy as a new topic under "Strategies" section. Miner's total strategy is totally different from what I am building here. I will be posting my detailed strategy here and will follow up with examples, will reply to queries about it too. Post only stuff related to my variation of the strategy.

BTW the over simplified EW stuff by Miner is quite straightforward too and works quite well in intraday too. But, of course, there is lot of subjective judgement involved there. But his EW ideas are far more better than what EW fanatics use. At least with these ideas one does not get into the wave count mess that most EW analysts are always in.

Thanks.

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Post: #41   PostPosted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

peace69 wrote:
girishhu1 wrote:
hi st sir,
in j chartsplus-premium, there is no option to export chart as png. so how to download/ save such charts?
regards,
girish



hi girish. u can save with paint if u use windows. open chart u want to save. press 'Prt Scr' key on key board. open paint. press 'Ctrl + V'. web image will be pasted in paint. now select desired portion of screen u want to save. right click on mouse & select 'cut' option. click 'new' on file menu of paint. right click mouse & click 'paste'. click 'save' on file menu. select PNG in 'save as' column. save file. that's done. regards.

hi peace 69, thanks a lot, bro
hellow st sir,
thanks for immediate reply.
ps- i think ichart should provide short link for saying thanks to people.
regards,
girish
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Post: #42   PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hi st sir,
initial stop loss as per 15m tf appears to be too long. any other alternative? also how to select stock for tading on particular day?
regards,
girish
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Post: #43   PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

girishhu1 wrote:
hi st sir,
initial stop loss as per 15m tf appears to be too long. any other alternative? also how to select stock for tading on particular day?
regards,
girish


I will be posting a draft of the modified system later today or tomm, please take a look at it and see how that works for you. I am actually posting a multiple timeframe trend system instead of multuple timeframe momentum system - going back to kind of my bread & butter system that I have been successfully using since long long time now. The SLs in the new system are going to be based on 5 mins chart so it should be okay.

About selecting stocks, make sure the stock is liquid intraday (the 5 min tf chart should look clean with no erratic moves, candles should have formed properly in 5 min tf). I guess if you stick to top 100 nse stocks or so you should be fine (even otherwise if 5 min tf chart is proper for a scrip it is fine).

Example scrips unsuitable for intraday trading : OMAXE, THERMAX, TULIP, SUPPETRO, RADICO, PRITHVI, NBVENTURES. Look at their 5 min charts and you will know why these are unfit for trading intraday. Of course, if one is trading based on longer timeframes - 30/60 mins then these would be fine. The lower our trading timeframe the better the liquidity of the scrip must be to able to trade properly.

Example scrips suitable for intraday trading : Look 5 min tf charts of any of the top scrips from NIFTY/JUNIOR/CNX100 indicies you will know.

Now from these which scrip to trade intraday? If you want to trade the system I am discussing here, you should have a short list of scrips that you trade. No point selecting any scrip and trading it. It will be good if you have a short researched list. If you stick to a short list you will over time get familiar with the range of moves that are usually possible with the scrip, this is important. Most important - on 5 mins (or whatever your trading timeframe is) the scrip's chart should be clean and orderly. As smooth the chart is the better. This is important for trend following.

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Post: #44   PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:03 pm    Post subject: Multiple Timeframe Trend Strategy Reply with quote

Multiple Timeframe Trend Strategy

As promised here is the modified strategy. I am calling it the Multiple Timeframe Trend Strategy (hereafter referred to as MTT strategy). The earlier MTM strategy used momentum in higher timeframe as a substitute for trend identification, this strategy - MTT - uses plain trend identification in higher timeframe using moving averages and then takes trades on lower timeframe. I have always traded variations of this strategy for years now. This strategy should be used by new traders to build trading skills and not get too mechanical with it. Initially it is fine to be mechanical but over time I suggest people try to analyse dynamically and be flexible as trends in more higher timeframes & supports/resistances in more higher timeframes (than the one used) come into play and getting clues on these can help one identify reversals.

The system contains setups which are pre-conditions that need to be satisfied in higher timeframe in order to even start thinking of a trade entry in lower timeframe. There are two setups - regular & reversal. Regular setups are trend following trades, reversal setups are counter-trend trades done in anticipation of short-term reversals of current trend.

For regular trades two trade triggers/signals on lower timeframe are given - one is based on CCI and the other price breakout based. Either trigger can be used based on one's preference. For reversal trade moving average crossover is used. Particular attention should be paid to negation of a reversal trade as this negation of a reversal means a trade trigger for a trade in the direction of the trend.

CHART CONFIGURATION :

Use JCharts (Plus-Premium) to display two charts side-by-side. One with higher timeframe (15 mins) and the other with lower timeframe (5 mins).

Higher Timeframe Indicators : WMA(3), SMA(8 ), STS(8,3,3). View preferably OHLC chart so WMA/SMA are clearly visible (with candles the EMA/SMA may not be too clear).

Lower Timeframe Indicators : WMA(5), SMA(13), CCI(3). View preferably OHLC chart so WMA/SMA are clearly visible (with candles the WMA/SMA may not be too clear).

SETUPS (HIGHER TIMEFRAME) :

The following buy/sell setups are pre-conditions that need to be satisfied on the higher timeframe (15 mins) before you start looking for buy/sell signals on lower timeframe (5 mins). These are not the final buy/sell signals, buy/sell signals will be taken from lower timeframe :

LONG SETUP :

REGULAR TRADES : WMA is above SMA

REVERSAL TRADES : STS is at or below 30

SHORT SETUP :

REGULAR TRADES : WMA is below SMA

REVERSAL TRADES : STS is at or above 70

SIGNALS / TRADE TRIGGERS (LOWER TIMEFRAME) :

The following signals can be taken ONLY after one of the long/short setup conditions has been satisfied first.

LONG SIGNAL (any one of the following signal is enough to initiate long):

FOR REGULAR LONG TRADES:

1. Let the CCI drop down to -100. After this once CCI closes above 0 (after the bar is complete only) go long. (this trigger can be used for re-entries also if entry is missed)

2. A CLOSE above a recent swing high that is ABOVE both WMA & SMA. The high of the swing high must be above both WMA & SMA.

FOR REVERSAL LONG TRADES :

Let the WMA close above SMA.

SHORT SIGNAL (any one of the following signal is enough to initiate short):

FOR REGULAR SHORT TRADES:

1. Let the CCI rise to +100. After this once CCI closes below 0 (after the bar is complete only) go short. (this trigger can be used for re-entries also if entry is missed)

2. A CLOSE below a recent swing low that is BELOW both WMA & SMA. The low of the swing low must be below both WMA & SMA.

FOR REVERSAL SHORT TRADES:

Let WMA close below SMA.

INITIAL STOP :

For LONGs : Just below the most recent swing low.

Fort SHORTs : Just above the most recent swing high.

TRAILING STOP :

For Longs : Move stop above just below swing lows as new higher swing lows form above one's trade entry point.

For Shorts : Move stop below just above swing highs as new lower swing highs form below one's trade entry point.

NEGATION OF A REVERSAL TRADE :

A long reversal trade gets negated if there is a close below a swing low that is below both the moving averages on lower timeframe. This is automatically a short trigger.

A short reversal trade gets negated if there is a close above a swing high that is above both the moving averages on lower timeframe. This is automatically a long trigger.

Swing high/low being above/below moving averages means that its high/low must be above/below both moving averages.

I Will post charts later to explain more & give examples. I will give examples of the best & worst days so one knows what to expect. Do note that I have tested/traded this extensively on equities/futures only. Commodities, forex may require different timeframes & settings based on their volatility. Even for different equities/futures that are volatile one may require slightly different settings. The settings I have given are fine for Nifty futures and most of the liquid stocks.

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Last edited by SwingTrader on Mon Aug 22, 2011 8:42 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post: #45   PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sir, I am attaching two charts of NIFTY FUTURES 19-Aug-2011 for 15 Minutes Time Frame and 5 Minutes Time Frame

Am I rightly identified the set up, trade, initial SL and Trailing SL

Few clarification needed from you

You mentioned WMA but at some other place mentioned EMA?
What is the use of EMA5/SMA13 combination in lower time frame?



NF 20110819 5MIN.png
 Description:
 Filesize:  227.43 KB
 Viewed:  436 Time(s)

NF 20110819 5MIN.png



NF 20110819 15MIN.png
 Description:
 Filesize:  173.41 KB
 Viewed:  404 Time(s)

NF 20110819 15MIN.png


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