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My Nifty View and Trades |
Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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Post: #136  Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:16 am Post subject: |
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| market critically poised. I won't be surprised by a big crack in the market in Dec. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #137 Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | market critically poised. I won't be surprised by a big crack in the market in Dec. |
looks like it has started. may be much more to go. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #138 Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | market critically poised. I won't be surprised by a big crack in the market in Dec. |
looks like it has started. may be much more to go. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #139 Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | Sun08 wrote: | | market critically poised. I won't be surprised by a big crack in the market in Dec. |
looks like it has started. may be much more to go. |
sold my puts in morning open and bought them again after the rise, though a bit early |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #140 Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:12 pm Post subject: |
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| SLs hit. now wait and watch |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #141 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | SLs hit. now wait and watch |
big move expected next week. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #142 Posted: Mon Dec 17, 2018 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | Sun08 wrote: | | SLs hit. now wait and watch |
big move expected next week. |
I think time is up now, perhaps even a violent move. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #143 Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:39 am Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | ……..I think time is up now, perhaps even a violent move. |
The move did come. I am hoping this down move will end today, creating a temporary low/bottom. Intend to go long today. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #144 Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | …….The move did come. I am hoping this down move will end today, creating a temporary low/bottom. Intend to go long today. |
looks like bottom indeed made today. next three days of dec crucial. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #145 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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Nifty seems to be critically poised. Daily and weekly volumes are average while monthly and quarterly volumes may be -ve and yearly volume average +ve. On yearly basis, it must close well above 10941. But, even then, all may not be well. I will check EOD 31/12 and revert. As of now, it appears that, even if nifty rises and even makes an ATH, it may fall 15% from high.
Bank nifty is bullish than nifty in that sense (except in short term) and hence, gives confusing signals.
I am inclined to believe that, contrary to TV experts, 2019 may yet again be a mid/small cap year. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #146 Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2018 2:33 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | Nifty seems to be critically poised. Daily and weekly volumes are average while monthly and quarterly volumes may be -ve and yearly volume average +ve. On yearly basis, it must close well above 10941. But, even then, all may not be well. I will check EOD 31/12 and revert. As of now, it appears that, even if nifty rises and even makes an ATH, it may fall 15% from high.
Bank nifty is bullish than nifty in that sense (except in short term) and hence, gives confusing signals.
I am inclined to believe that, contrary to TV experts, 2019 may yet again be a mid/small cap year. |
today's intraday movement so far shows why today's close may be critical for 2019. |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #147 Posted: Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | Nifty seems to be critically poised. Daily and weekly volumes are average while monthly and quarterly volumes may be -ve and yearly volume average +ve. On yearly basis, it must close well above 10941. But, even then, all may not be well. I will check EOD 31/12 and revert. As of now, it appears that, even if nifty rises and even makes an ATH, it may fall 15% from high.
Bank nifty is bullish than nifty in that sense (except in short term) and hence, gives confusing signals.
I am inclined to believe that, contrary to TV experts, 2019 may yet again be a mid/small cap year. |
Just making some observations
Nifty
Monthly candle is a hammer with strong -ve volume and -ve div
quarterly candle is hammer with -ve volume
yearly candle is a doji/inverted hammer and a likely shooting star/evening star with average +ve volume
Bank nifty
monthly volume is strong +ve
quarterly candle is bullish engulfing with strong +ve volume but hidden bearish div
yearly candle is a spinning top cum likely evening star with +ve volume
Midcap index
Monthly candle is hammer cum hanging man with strong +ve volume
Quarterly candle is bullish
yearly candle is bearish
Bank nifty is giving different signals than nifty in medium/long term.
midcap index has underperformed major indices but, hence, has greater chance/margin outperformance.
In general, caution is advised. My earlier comment is unchanged as of nowi.e. "...….it appears that, even if nifty rises and even makes an ATH, it may fall 15% from high."
If it happens, my earlier targets of 94xx/89xx are possible. first one earliest by May and latest by July.
I may be wrong. So do your own study or consult an authorised financial consultant. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #148 Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:44 am Post subject: |
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Dear Sun,
Some observations for new year:
1 I didnt want to clutter ST's thread so posting here. Arent you trying to read too much from one indicator by OVER- TWEAKING IT? Isnt it better to co-relate clues from separate and distinct elements and if they point in one direction, then the trend visible is so much stronger
2 Eg: if ST's market strength indicators show bullishness AND we find out FIIs are re-entering market due to
a) weakness in US market
b) correction over in India
then we may have a bullish situation till Easter 2019, when the FIIs can fly home packing some nice profits to show bosses and bonuses to show wives/ children ???
Hence if we monitor FII funds flows and find them to be positive from XMas 2018, then my point above may be true?
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
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Sun08
White Belt
Joined: 21 Aug 2017
Posts: 478
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| Post: #149 Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:18 am Post subject: |
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| pkholla wrote: | Dear Sun,
Some observations for new year:
1 I didnt want to clutter ST's thread so posting here. Arent you trying to read too much from one indicator by OVER- TWEAKING IT? Isnt it better to co-relate clues from separate and distinct elements and if they point in one direction, then the trend visible is so much stronger
2 Eg: if ST's market strength indicators show bullishness AND we find out FIIs are re-entering market due to
a) weakness in US market
b) correction over in India
then we may have a bullish situation till Easter 2019, when the FIIs can fly home packing some nice profits to show bosses and bonuses to show wives/ children ???
Hence if we monitor FII funds flows and find them to be positive from XMas 2018, then my point above may be true?
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
point taken but note what I have said. Market may even make a new ATH but that will be short lived as everything suggests that 2019 will not be bullish for large caps. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #150 Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:31 am Post subject: |
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| Sun08 wrote: | | point taken but note what I have said. Market may even make a new ATH but that will be short lived as everything suggests that 2019 will not be bullish for large caps. |
No need to reply. Point noted
But a short term bullishness till Easter 2019 ?
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