iCharts Discussions

[Sun08]

"As of now, I am inclined to bet on up first because then only market makers can get out taking advantage of simultaneous rise in INR, which can go to as much as 64/63."

This was posted on 1st Jan. Not sure if INR will come to 63/64 as it already appreciated about 8% from its previous low.

[pkholla]

Thanks. Good analysis esp the part about Re hardening upto 63?
Cheers, Prakash Holla

[Parag9992]

[Sun08]

Parag9992

It's not a harami. Pl read about harami pattern.

[Sun08]

at last it looks like a break out

[Sun08]

BOWTIE PATTERN

Bowtie pattern is one of the rarest patterns in charts. It can loosely be explained as a pattern where three important indicators (50/100/200 ma) first converge and then diverge, giving appearance of a bowtie.

A perfect bowtie is where it looks very much like one due to a perfect convergence and also where each lower ma has crossed above/below the higher one. An imperfect bowtie, which occurs more often than a perfect one (note it’s anyway a rare pattern), is one where it generally looks like a bowtie due to an imperfect convergence and/or where one ma may still show a contra crossing w.r.t. the higher one.

Following are the periods where a bowtie occurred in case of nifty and bank nifty on daily charts.

Nifty

Perfect - End june ’98 – bearish
Imperfect – Feb ’99 – bullish
Perfect – July ’03 – bullish
Imperfect – Oct ’04 –bullish
Imperfect – Sept ’06 –bullish
Imperfect - May ’09 –bullish
Imperfect – June ’10 –bullish
Perfect – August ’12 –bullish
Perfect – August ’13 –bearish
Perfect – Nov ’13 –bullish
Imperfect – August ’15 –bearish
Perfect – Feb ’17 – bullish

Bank Nifty

Imperfect – June ’06 –bearish
Imperfect – June ’07 –bullish
Imperfect – May ’09- bullish
Imperfect - April ’11 – bearish
Perfect – July ’13 –bearish
Perfect – March ’14 – bullish
Perfect – August ’15 – bearish
Imperfect – Feb ’17 – bullish
Imperfect – May ’18 –bullish
Imperfect – Jjan’19 – bullish

The situation with ema is a bit different in that it’s delayed. Generally, the first hint comes when 50 dsma crosses 100 with 100 close by and later 100 crosses 200 though bowtie pattern forms later and is hence not an advance indicator.

Such a bowtie is in progress now in nifty wherein the convergence is about to complete in January ’19 and 50 dsma will cross over 100 and 200 dsma in Jan, if nifty remains stable or goes up. 100 dsma is still contra, going to go below 200 soon. In case of bank nifty, it has already advanced beyond convergence, outperforming nifty though 100 dsma is still contra. Hence, it may be bullish but time alone will tell. Note that there are many other occasions when market has gone up or down without such a pattern having developed fully.

Contra-indicators

These are factors which can spook the market contrary to what TA suggests.

Baltic Dry Index

This index indirectly indicates global trade as it’s for transport of dry goods by ships. It doesn’t have much direct relevance for India as India’s trade is miniscule compared to the developed countries. But sympathetic reaction will always happen in Indian stocks, at least for companies which have a fair portion of revenue from exports. This, I feel, is an advance indicator for equity markets and is at a make or break level, which means either it will break down if sustains below about 1000 or will find support and move up, latter provided global economy improves.

S&P BSE Dollex

There is already a fair divergence between this and nifty and such divergence always causes nifty to move up or down and that mainly depends on stability and strengthening or weakening of INR w.r.t. dollar. Hence, INR nees to be watched in coming months.

Disclaimer - This is just a personal observation/view and neither a recommendation nor a tip nor an advice for any trade. Do your own study or consult an authorised financial consultant.

[Sun08]

we need to get a close well above 10946 today unless nifty goes above 10988 today. preferred close > 10968/986.

[pkholla]

dear sun, according to me, looks like range bound trading in NF and market doing the same. spooked by predictions of maha-extended-family defeating lone ranger bjp! but when has joint family* sustained for more than few days
total silence from modi and nda not helping market go up ( chiddu would have issued few soothing glycodin drops + encouragement by now, in upa) !!!

* imagine rahul and sonia waking up in bed, cuddled to maya, mulla, mamata and naidu - as shown in cartoon few yrs back

cheers, prakash holla

[Sun08]

[Parag9992]

Baltic Dry Index broken its support of 1000. Currently near 900.

[Sun08]

Will july'18 repeat?

[Sun08]

sold some nifty and RIL calls. holding bank nifty calls

[pkholla]

Sun, with maha ek doosrey ko chaku mar sanghatana becoming a joke (again), looks like NDA2+ Modi 2nd innings. Telengana Rao likely to hold Telengana and do well in AP AND back Modi.

Karnataka looks like divorce fast approaching of unlikely couple JD+Congi

Last card left of Congi, Priya looks like durri of non-trump suit?

Recog this, market has bottomed out and is likely to go up?

Cheers, Prakash Holla

[Sun08]

[Sun08]

today or tmrw is the "D" day I feel for immediate short term market outlook