iCharts Discussions

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

I am starting a new thread as suggested by some so as not to clutter others.

Let me first reproduce below what I had posted in various threads in late March, I think, though not verbatim and also add more.

I has said that about 9950 is crucial AND if 9943 is touched, we may see 8825 in 3-6 months of hitting 9943, though about 9500 is another reversal level. Low was 9951.90 and when it reversed, I had gone long in nifty. I was bullish till 13/04 and had said that we need to watch what happens after 17/04. The bullish view by end March, I had said, was due to massive selling since early Feb by most due to tax on LTCG, including by many who misunderstood the grandfathering in the tax.

Today's (18/04) move was what I had expected and hence I had covered my longs yesterday. The extreme lower levels above are possible provided a new ATH is not made and sustained though it could reverse viciously even from 11300 also. But, as of now, I doubt a new ATH will be made/sustained. I expect a severe reaction from whatever it goes to from here, may be even from today's high though perhaps unlikely, latter because most stocks are nowhere near their 31/01 highs.

A few methods give upper likely levels of about 10660/10980. Similarly, other methods give likely lower levels (if below 9943) of 9740/9560/9230/ 9080/8825. I will be very careful around 10625 or so.

April must close above about 10300 to encourage longs for May. Similarly, June must close above 10530 to negate bearish candle for quarter ending March and suggest further bullishness. However, I expect a reaction from mid May if it continues to go up in early May.

Presently, I have only a few puts but may think of going long tomorrow or on Friday if I feel like it. I feel we may see worst case 10300 though it can reverse from 10400+. If about 10980 is indeed reached, I may think of dumping most of, if not all, my investment and wait for a bullish signal. I may decide to offload sooner also, if I feel so based on market movement.

However, it makes sense to trade based on each important level (as per individual's study) as and when it is taken out on the up or down instead of dreaming of extreme levels on either side and trading based on those.

Disclaimer - this is not an advice or recommendation for a trade or an investment. Do you own study or consult a certified financial consultant/advisor.

Wishing happy trading and investing to all.

Niftyman · White Belt Joined: 22 Mar 2015 Posts: 340

Good to see your post. But surprised where did you post all this material. Never saw your posts.
Anyway, keep posting and I hope you will post your analysis well in advance and atleast by late evening and in clear words and not jalebi like.

Happy trading

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Niftyman · White Belt Joined: 22 Mar 2015 Posts: 340

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

I went long again near eod today looking at an extremely narrow range (perhaps narrowest since 8/8/16) and an inside doji/hanging man cum high-price harami candle and the highest close since 26/02.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

I will be cautious if nifty sustains below 10525 but may get out of april calls if it breaks 10500 but then add to my May calls when I feel it's right time.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

NS made a freak low of 10514.95 but NF didn't. My crucial level of 10625 was reached and hence sold my calls. however, after a fall of 60, I have bought few calls again. fingers crossed as close > 10592.80NS/10579.65NF is must.

AMBY · Yellow Belt Joined: 05 Sep 2014 Posts: 503

Even bank nifty made freak low .

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Looks bearish and I am now short. There's still hope if about 10480 holds. Otherwise we may see 10300/270. It may still be bullish for May even if that happens but I will decide later.

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

Sun08 · White Belt Joined: 21 Aug 2017 Posts: 478

This expiry is very big and very wild swings are expected. Today was NR7 and NR75 day for nifty and bank nifty. As a wild thought, I won't be surprised to see about 10400 and 25400 (worst case 25120) latest but 4/5 and a huge rise to 11300 and 26400+ as early as 15/5. The diff in nifty and BN is due to BN giving diff signals, which may mean that rise in nifty may be more due to RIL. Also, this may mean that BN may move up more after 15/5 while RIL and nifty don't.

I wouldn't advise trading based on this.