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My T and C ( trades and charts) |
smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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Post: #91  Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:11 pm Post subject: |
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| USP @ 6267..of 15tf gone.. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #92 Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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| when is sell getting trigerred? |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #93 Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:23 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | | when is sell getting trigerred? |
Amitagg, your this question prompted me to check the chart again thoroughly..Finally i got the answer for myself also..  ..
The trend as per SSPS has turned dn today so as per this method short entry WOULD come on pull back if it comes tomorrow or any other day but as i mentioned earlier that some contra trend (not as per SSPS basic method) was in operation in smaller tf..so the First short was below ysterday day first 5tf candle low..then it would have hit SL yesterday..then next short would have been today again below first bar low..and it could & should have been carried at the end of session..observing all this i realised my long was wrong as the signal candle was within the range of a WRB..hence should be avoided...so the only trade today should have been the short trade only..no longs..(will take care in future)...here is chart of my new introspection of my today's Trade & Chart (T & C).. |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #94 Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:41 pm Post subject: |
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Market is moving in gaps..today it again gapped dn..tried short @ 6193..eod exit @ 6203..
Net pts (trade:1) = -19 ; cumulative = -19
Net pts (trade:2) = -22 ; cumulative = -41
Net pts (trade:3) = 46 ; cumulative = 5
Net pts (trade:4) = 3 ; cumulative = 8
Net pts (trade:5) = -12 ; cumulative = -4
Net pts (trade:6) = -29 ; cumulative = -33
Net pts (trade:7) = 7 ; cumulative = -26
Net pts (trade:8 ) = 24 ; cumulative = -2
Net pts (trade:9 ) = -10 ; cumulative = -12
Net pts (trade:10 ) = -30 ; cumulative = -42
Net pts (trade:11 ) = -10 ; cumulative = -52
Nearly half month is gone...Summary of 11 trades (excluding brokerage & taxes).
Winning or breakeven trades: 4 trades with 80pts (36.36%)..Avg profit/trade= 20
Loosing trade : 7 trades with -132 pts (63.64%)..Avg loss/trade= 18.85
Avg. Net loss/trade= - 4.72 
Need one or two trade this month to get into positive... 
Last edited by smartcancerian on Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:46 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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voyager
White Belt
Joined: 05 Sep 2011
Posts: 63
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| Post: #95 Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:25 pm Post subject: |
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| smartcancerian wrote: | Market is moving in gaps..today it again gapped dn..tried short @ 6193..eod exit @ 6203..
Net pts (trade:1) = -19 ; cumulative = -19
Net pts (trade:2) = -22 ; cumulative = -41
Net pts (trade:3) = 46 ; cumulative = 5
Net pts (trade:4) = 3 ; cumulative = 8
Net pts (trade:5) = -12 ; cumulative = -4
Net pts (trade:6) = -29 ; cumulative = -33
Net pts (trade:7) = 7 ; cumulative = -26
Net pts (trade:8 ) = 24 ; cumulative = -2
Net pts (trade:9 ) = -10 ; cumulative = -12
Net pts (trade:10 ) = -30 ; cumulative = -42
Net pts (trade:11 ) = -10 ; cumulative = -52
Nearly half month is gone...Summary of 10 trades (excluding brokerage & taxes).
Winning or breakeven trades: 4 trades with 80pts (36.36%)..Avg profit/trade= 20
Loosing trade : 7 trades with -132 pts (63.64%)..Avg loss/trade= 18.85
Avg. Net loss/trade= - 4.72
Need one or two trade this month to get into positive... |
well bro good calculation. |
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pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
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| Post: #96 Posted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:32 pm Post subject: |
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Smart: I have no intention of hurting you, but 2 observations I have made about your trades posted below, are as under:
1 7 out of 11 trades are losing trades. You need to tweak the trading plan to increase the winning %
2 Many of the losing trades are big losses. You can survive with 30% winning percentage but the losses have to be small. You need to tweak your SL
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #97 Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:27 am Post subject: |
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Thanx pkholla for your guidance..no hurting..this thread is to seek guidance from all corners..here is my approach to recent trades or bad winning %..this is for myself as i gather myself after continuous losing trades..
Before actually trading..i made a backtest/live test of this modified version thoroughly..It happened in back test result that even "10 trades in sequence" can go in negative (100% losing %) then i thought of tweaking/dumping the system & then 11th & 12th trade changed the outcome & month like July ended in loss of only 15 pts overall but then august was superb month giving 6-7 months quota points .The losing streak may happen & will happen..& recently i watched a video (will give you link in pm if you require), that opened my eye..what is important is + expectancy of a system over a large number of trades & a good RR ratio...so 1 losing trade or even 10 losing trades in a sequence are none when we are to take 1000 trades..ofcourse, market is dynamic & will have to re-look the entries/exits/SL but for that matter i have already decided when..
The last chart i posted shows my mistake, it was actually a short trade @ 6304 ( & long could have been avoided) & it was a carry short trade comfortably...the trade saw a low of 6189..around 100 pts profit + 30 saved from bad long trade would have changed the outcome..Anyway, learned from this mistake,this won't happen again..
Regards,
Smart.. |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #98 Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2013 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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Losing streak...why PM....all can be in open discussion..........
The Chartist video...Australian trader.....
at 50% win percentage - losing streak can be 16 trades
at 70% win percentage losing streak can be 9 trades
at 90% win %, it can be 5 trades........ |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #99 Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| Short will be active below 6176..with SL of 6220.. |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #100 Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2013 12:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Got an opportunity to short @ 6194 with lesser Initial SL....sl now trailed to 6210 |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #101 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:26 am Post subject: |
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| Nifty opened with a gap..Tsl got breached on opening ( so not of use)..ISL still protected as of now,so the SL for this short is again @ 6220..lets see |
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amitagg
Black Belt
Joined: 01 Oct 2013
Posts: 4559
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| Post: #102 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 12:45 pm Post subject: |
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was away....if u want to lower stop keep @ 6210 ...in fact keep as SAR....markets would run away now from 6190 to 6225-6250....or fall ....if 6187 not breached up....
isnt 6185-6187 the USP now in intra day timeframe..... |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #103 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Trailing sl to 6196 now..if the market cannot take out ystday low of 6168, then i will be exiting this trade at 3.28 ahead of Event |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #104 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Though 6168 taken out but still outcome of Fed meeting today night is an Event..Anything can happen so this time Hedging my shorts by buying 6100CE @ 104..Less profit is acceptable against Big loss.. |
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smartcancerian
Yellow Belt
Joined: 07 Apr 2010
Posts: 542
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| Post: #105 Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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| amitagg wrote: | was away....if u want to lower stop keep @ 6210 ...in fact keep as SAR....markets would run away now from 6190 to 6225-6250....or fall ....if 6187 not breached up....
isnt 6185-6187 the USP now in intra day timeframe..... |
Technically 6168 became USP in lower tf after today's gap up...that is why, i was waiting for its breach.. |
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