iCharts Discussions

[daytrader007]

I am writing my analysis here for this month. This is not any trade recommendation on NF. I will write possibilities for this month.

In the month of April NS found support at 4628.8 (NS). Today (03/06) NS took support at the same place 4634 (NS).

Fast pull back from 4630 (NF) around suggests short covering. therefore it will get resisted around 4740 (NF) or at 4829 (NF) levels.

Once pull back is over (either to 4740 (NF) or to 4829(NF) ), NF is like to test bottom at least once very fast. Therefore if people are playing for this bounce back should do carefully. When it hits any important resistance level will fall fast and will not give much time to exit.

Any gaps up around those levels 4740 (NF) or 4829 (NF), will be good point for shorting.


So expect market to be range bound between 4829 (NF)-4620 (NF) broadly in next a few days.

Now in case market wants to move up beyond 4829 (NF), then it will spend time between 4620-4829 (NF) for some time (5-6 or more days). In case support 4620 (NF) is not broken, market can take out 4829 (NF) resistance and test 5000 (NF) later in the month.

In case of down side, first sign will be market will break 4620 (NF) and then after pull back it will get resistance at the same level 4620 (NF). 2nd thing, market has low trend line support at 4520-50 (NF) around. If this is broken, there is no more support. In that case market can fall upto 4200-300 (NF) level easily.

So when market is range bound between 4620-4829 (NF), please make sure you do not get stuck with long at higher levels or with short at lower levels.

For directional move (up or down), we need to wait for next a few days.

I will update this write up later in the day. Also will correct any spelling mistake is there.

Following are bottom lines or conclusions:

1. No hurry for positional longs or call buying for hold (not saying about intra-day)
2. Market may have more down side
3. Market would have to consolidate here for any sustainable upmove
4. Last line of defense for bulls is 4530-4550 (NF)
5. In case market cracks below 4530-4550 (NF), we would have to see 4200-300



NF - NIFTY FUTURE
NS - NIFTY SPOT


05-Jun-08
------------------------
I will add comments to my views only when it is needed (not daily).

Everything which I have explained above, holds good still. Only update today, current support 4530-4550 (NF) and resistance 4620-4630 (NF).


06-Jun-08
------------------------

Support 4620 (NF) and resistance 4730-40 (NF). still NF is in down trend and this is a covering bounce. better to avoid any directional call now.

10-Jun-08
------------------------

NF has broken trend line today. Therefore it has created space for 4200-4300 NF level. I think NF will pull back little bit first then it would go for those levels.

On 10th, 4400 is support and 4620 is resistance for NF.


15-Jun-08
------------------------

I am putting broad over view for the rest of the month.

1. Current NF resistance 4530-4550. If this level in not taken out in the beginning of the next week, then market will search for lower levels (4200 or even lower)

2. In case 4550 is taken out , then NF would try to climb 4620-4750. It will be very difficult to cross 4750 NF in this month.

If you ask me which scenario I prefer, I think 1st one is most likely in coming days.





17-Jun-08
------------------------

Market is doing the 2nd condition of my above analysis. Since we have crossed 4550 and closed above it. I think market will take support around 5530 NF and move up. This swing may last till 4750 NF around. In case market breaks 4530, then next support at 4475 NF.

[hdobhal]

Dear Swdas,

I read your analysis for Nifty future and found it very interesting. I also have similar views but I track Nifty spot and I think it will get resisted at 4815-20 levels (if it manages to go there at all).

Nice work. Pls keep it up.

Thanks

Harish

[shrii]

daada, your posts have been very helpful. i ve been following your views since i joined icharts. please do keep posting for the benefit of all. onek dhonnobaad

[bruce lee]

your views are good. i suggest if you could give your views separately for nifty--futures and spot.
keep up the good work.
kotwani

[shekharkulkarni]

Das bandhopadhya ekdum bhalo... ea nifty spot 4815 dada... tumhi nifty spot view post korish... usske baad... amar gut feeling dada be bill hab black manday ... niche... ki amar view barabor ki nai dada...

Fontastic view lobely....

[raksan]

swads sir..
really its very helpful for us..pls keep going sir.one req pls come 2 sb @share ur view .thanks

[daytrader007]

Thank you guys!! I have updated levels with NF or NS. I always calculate with NF. Do not like NS. I explained reasons in SB once.

[tangotaurian]

thnx a lot for your view on NF...
your view will definitely helps everyone while taking positions

keep up da work

Thanks,
Tushar

[daytrader007]

04/06/2008:

hope you have seen the sudden fall today which i have explained in my posting. Also you understand now, why it is risky to play the bounce.

Thanks
Swapan

[Arul Zen]

swadas,

thanks for your view. i hope you will continue this writtings in future also

arul kumar

[daytrader007]

04/06/2008:

NF level now: 4620

Again hope you have seen how market is risky to play bounce. and how market's center of gravity down wards.

Thanks
Swapan

[manthra7]

Sir,

Your views on markets were more genuine and precise, as if they are more helpful to us. Please keep it up.


regards

manthra

[daytrader007]

thx all for your comments. I have made a small update in my main posting at the bottom. Please have a look.

Thanks,
Swapan

[Amrit_jain]

i think u r on the right track appriciating ur view and want to add if 4800 nf broken on up side there is no limit of sky , i want to say on every up move support for nifty rise else 4800 approx is the high for next week
thanks for all ur guidelines

[gudd007]