iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

6306 may be difficult to cross in May but there is a huge "left-out" feeling, even among many funds in all the markets and liquidity is massive and is continuosly flowing in. With USD appreciating and INR and yen depreciating, more the spread and more money will keep coming. To add to that, retail participation is almost nil and hence distributing at the top is going to be difficult.

Hence, I feel we are yet to see a crescendo rising to the final climax that pulls in all and sundry in the vortex. Bank nifty has already given the hint of a new all time high. The fall from whatever level that mighht be may not be good for the weak hearted. However, at the same time, that time may be the best ever to invest. I feel market may go up till 31/5 or 07/06 with either minor correction from 6230-90 or one as high as 300 points but in one day only (like 13/05), perhaps early next week (Tuesday?).

shashangan · Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 6:36 pm Post subject:

Hmm.

Vinay I dont know, what you say makes sense & I am questioning all the possibilities comparing technical to understand how far could be the extension top.

Mkt may extend. May be it may want to show a new high so might go to just briefly break the all time high, so as to give that feeling all time high is taken out, so mkt should rally more now. But even then I feel it may not cross beyond 6400.

These are the next levels which I feel is possible 6231 ,6244-50, **6270-78*, *6305**, 6317. I still doubt beyond this, but since you mentioned may be 6345 & 6386 could be the extension top. As of now I dont think personally mkt has potential to go above this. And the mkt has to complete this move without any correction on weekly basis. So it may finish the move by around this month end or by 1st week June.

Regarding INR, I am not very sure, but there is possibility INR may play 55.10 - 54.40 range till wed/thu. Had a look at yen, it also may correct near term, but yes overall it's targeting probably 111+.

I can only see one thing which is madly & meaninglessly bullish is Dow Jones. It's targeting 18000+, but fundamentally there is nothing for U.S so strong to take the mkt to that level.

For now I am sticking to this view. As mkt deviates from my actual projection, i shall adjust to it. Anyway let's see.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

shashangan · Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:52 pm Post subject:

Well Vinay, these are speculative mkt.s. It works on difference of opinion. As of now I will stick to my view. It's not necessary my view has to be right.

But be careful & play very cautiously keeping you eyes wide open on all signals, is all I will say now. I dont have any long positions & am waiting for entering short. I am planning to buy some 5500 & 5400 puts of June though, after Monday.

The mkt has to make a small correction & has to hold down for a week atleast before taking a turn may be from 5935, If the mkt is going up.

But I am quite confident of a reversal as of now, since there has been no weekly correction. I dont want to deviate from my view till I see some deviation in the movements.

Let's see Monday & the following days. I may be on & off next week as well since I have a few trainings. But I shall try & update when ever I get a chance.

I have attached another chart for reference. Just see if it helps.

Regarding the chart, the 1st move of 972 points & a small correction is from bottom 2539 Nifty. So the next bull run of 1342 points for another 5 bull candles is valid since it's after a fall & the lowest level.

The 2nd continuous bull of 9 candles could only make 724 points move. This move is in between the overall bull trend.

The 3rd Bull run is at the top of the trend, where it has given correction on the 6th & 7th Candle. The mkt had moved 874 points up before correcting minimum 150+ & again 347 points correction before another strong break of high.

The next continuous bulls of 7 candles of 1041 points again is from a bottom 4531, after a deep correction so it's valid.

Overall we are almost 1700 points up from the 4531 lows. We have already moved 722 points as of now from the present trend low 5477. So I feel a move of 800-900 points makes sense before correcting. Also mkt is at top, so expecting deeper correction. Above 6270, the total continuous bulls would be 810 points+ up.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

channasri · Green Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2012 Posts: 1029

Shashangan I am sorry to enter in between the discussion. My view is that the anticipated big fall may happen after RBI's policy rates decision scheduled for 17th June. By then the annual results of most of the corporates would be available as well.

Regards,
Channasri

shashangan · Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:55 pm Post subject:

It's fine Channasri,

Well, let me try this. The exact point where mkt can reverse would be between 6310-30 spot basis targeting 5400 & below. According to me that has to be the overall top for now.

Spot will not cross 6335. I will hold this view till mkt closes above 6340 both weekly & monthly basis.

Well I doubt you would be find anybody saying the precise level of top of a running trend & with so much confidence. Let's see If I get it right.

Please dont get confused & influenced with my view & analysis. I wont be responsible for your losses. Kindly do your own analysis also before going with my view.

Good luck
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

good presentation of the chart Gautham. It is always a good idea to hedge when in doubt. While I am fairly long as of now, I too am looking for a correction soon as mentioned earlier, though may not be as much as you are suggesting. But I am anyway hedged with 5700pe for june and 5500 pe for july with 1/3 qty. of calls. Smile

channasri · Green Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2012 Posts: 1029

Thanks Shashangan. The common aspect is that bearish moves are round the corner.

Regards,
Channasri

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:27 am Post subject:

Thanks Vinay,

Good luck with you entries. Let's see what happens this week.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:32 am Post subject:

Mkt is in a intra day consolidation & should hold 6240-41 high for sometime.

Thanks
Gautham shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 1:09 pm Post subject:

There is a possibility mkt may go on to break the high once more. Probably the intra day bottom is done.

Play cautious.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

RAJDESAI1967 · Yellow Belt Joined: 19 Mar 2013 Posts: 518

Shashangam

nF @ 6197 ANY udated views?

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 2:33 pm Post subject:

Looks down at the moment RAj. 6178 may some support, not sure for now.

Watching

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:19 pm Post subject:

Vinay, around 6140 NF may be.

Though I felt there was a possibility of a correction today, I didn't want it to happen, since it affects the flow & the picture I have. But anyway it has corrected. Now I have to watch the move for next 2-3 days.

I am a bit confused now. But yes if it comes down near 6080 by Wednesday Thursday & recovers again to go back to close a weekly bull on friday it would be great.

I have a training program, so wont be there in the morning. Will try If I can be there near close, but not sure.

Let me see what mkt does & shall update. I dont know about that 300 point one day move. But today's correction probably showing one small possibility of reaching near 6400, but still may not break. Let it start going up again & we will take it from there.

I shall stick to my old view for now.

Hey vinay, i could not go through the date you mentioned, I am a little lazy person to search, also I have been tied up preparing for my programs, so kindly copy the page url & send me, so it is easier.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan