iCharts Discussions

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:26 pm Post subject:

well only thing it should not break the previous week low or make a weekly bear close. As long as it doesn't it's fine. It can achieve the above. If not I will have to re-do all my analysis & would have to change my projections slightly with the deviation.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Gautham, i have seen your charts. I am just curious if you have seen the cup and handle charts of the weekly nifty and bank nifty I posted couple of days ago... do you still hold the opinion after seeing those patterns

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:34 pm Post subject:

Apka, I think I checked, but didn't notice the cup handle, please copy the page url & paste it here, if you dont mind. Let me see it & comment

I am preparing for tomorrow's program. It's a new client, so just brushing up through the topics & content to cover for tomorrow. Please dont think otherwise. I have to leave early morning tomorrow. So short of time.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

http://www.icharts.in/forum/download,id,15645.html

http://www.icharts.in/forum/download,id,15644.html

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 9:47 pm Post subject:

Hey Apka,

This is cool. Quite sharp to pick it. I didnt notice it. I forgot how exactly it works. But know it has to break & make a short rally, if I am not wrong.

Just explain how much to correct & how much it can go higher, If not I will check it tomorrow evening in leisure from google & understand it.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

as per the levels of retracement to the breakout levels, max downfall to 6060-6080 (not necessary it will come) can come and movement towards new high then.

fact that both nifty and bank nifty have it same to same, main nifty stocks like Axis crossed it's recent high, SBIN's weekly resistence was crossed intraday today by crossing 2450....... LT's weekly reistsence @ 1620 was crossed today... (as my reading) and so on.... I think higher trgts of BN 15350 and nifty 6800-6900 are coming as per this chart, but maybe slowly in 6-8 months.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

shashangan · Posted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:01 pm Post subject:

yes Got it Apka.

So there needs to be a move up to the depth of the cup length right on break.

Gautham Shashangan

channasri · Green Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2012 Posts: 1029

Apka today's EOD candle of Nifty as well as bank nifty is bearish engulfment as far as the body portions concerned. So, short term downside to be anticipated is my feeling. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Regards,
Channasri

vinst · Black Belt Joined: 09 Jan 2007 Posts: 3303

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

@ channasri, yes. but last 2-3 times whenever we seen bearish daily candles, they have been reversed the next day. We saw some reversal in Reliance, SBIN after breaking weekly resistence zone and the main culprit Pharma. But I'm inclinded towards the longer trend...hence will wait if 6060-6080 breaches or not as per weekly levels.

@ vinst, thank you. I am myself surpised, both are so clearly visible yet unpicked by the TA @ TV. The handles have just started forming...with timeline of anywhere between 4-42 weeks. As If you open a normal cup and handle chart, I think nifty and bank nifty weekly are following exactly so far.

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

sorry Gautham.... shouldnt be doing my analysis in your thread... appologies...

channasri · Green Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2012 Posts: 1029

Apka I have copied and pasted my posting dated 18th May here. I think the cup and handle pattern spotted by you and the wave count calculations point towards similar targets. Let's see what happens.

I have posted some wave counts for Nifty spot in the paragraphs below. Request experts to correct me if I am wrong.

Wave 1 from 23-12-2011 (4531) to 24-2-2012 (5630) = 1099 points
Wave 2 from 24-2-2012 (5630) to 8-6-2012 (4770) = 860 points (78.3%
of Wave 1)
Wave 3 from 8-6-2013 (4770) to 1-2-2013 (6112) = 1342 points (122.1%
of Wave 1)
Wave 4 from 1-2-2013 (6112) to 12-4-2013 (5477) = 635 points (47.3%
of Wave 3) but breached Wave 1 territory.
Wave 5 is in progress since 12-4-2013.

Since Wave 3 cannot be the shortest, the highest level for Nifty spot can be 6819 i.e., 5477 + 1342 (length of Wave 3). The Fibonacci levels will thus come at 5786 (23%) - DONE, 5987 (38%) - DONE, 6148 (50%) - DONE, 6306 (61.2%) - PENDING, 6551 (80%) - PENDING.

The Wave 4 above has breached Wave 1. This should not happen. Hence, the alternative view is that we are still in WAVE 3 (if 6112 mentioned above is Sub Wave 3 of Wave 3 and 5477 is end of Sub Wave 4 of Wave 3). If so, end of this Sub Wave 5 will be marked by a huge Wave 4 all the way down. That should lead to a huge Wave 5 taking Nifty Spot beyond 7000.

My personal view is that crossing 6306 itself is tough for the May series. Let's wait and see. Market's verdict is final.

Regards,
Channasri

channasri · Green Belt Joined: 01 Aug 2012 Posts: 1029

Shashangan I have observed that in the current rally Nifty has often taken support of 5days EMA and moved ahead. It took 5 days EMA (5138 as per icharts and 5136.43 as per google finance) support today also. Hence, I feel that tomorrow's close becomes important.

Regards,
Channasri