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Nifty Analysis |
apka
Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011
Posts: 6137
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Post: #1156  Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 7:49 am Post subject: |
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| ya channasri, 5ema is almost never breached on daily close in a trending nifty. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1157 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 8:56 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | ya channasri, 5ema is almost never breached on daily close in a trending nifty. |
5 ema was breached last monday and tuesday but not 15 ema. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1158 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 8:59 am Post subject: |
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| apka wrote: | | weirdly, no technical data on web I track or on TV is covering this pattern. All are just concentrating on double triple tops near 6300. But if you see, there is hardly any selling pressure even near the top. |
I did hear someone talk about it on TV about a fortnight (or more) ago. |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1159 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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It's fine Apka,
Anybody is open for discussion. So dont worry about it. YOu are always welcome.
I just got back. Just had a long day with my client.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| apka wrote: | | sorry Gautham.... shouldnt be doing my analysis in your thread... appologies... |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1160 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 8:39 pm Post subject: |
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Just a quick observation.
There has not been selling like last week Monday. So I think the mkt has probably corrected.
Not necessary, but there may be one more low morning, after which mostly the mkt can again try higher & close in green tomorrow.
Shall see again & update, in sometime, if I can find anything more
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1161 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 9:01 pm Post subject: |
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| shashangan wrote: | There has not been selling like last week Monday. So I think the mkt has probably corrected.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
Gautham, last Monday's low volume gave an indication that the fall was shallow. Comparatively, today's and yesterday's volume was more than last Monday. |
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channasri
Green Belt
Joined: 01 Aug 2012
Posts: 1029
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| Post: #1162 Posted: Tue May 21, 2013 10:50 pm Post subject: Support level for nifty today |
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Shashangan today Nifty took support of 5D Low EMA (5100) and closed with a small bounce from day's low of 6102.35. It will be interesting to see tomorrow's low and close. If closes below 5D Low EMA, then more downside to be anticipated is my opinion. Also, the intraday fall of 6180-6102 may give a retracement tomorrow. The 61.2% and 80% retracements come at 6151 and 6165 respectively. Bullishness above these levels only. In my opinion, short selling at 6151 keeping 6165 as SL may be a good trading idea. Request you to comment.
Regards,
Channasri |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1163 Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 12:01 pm Post subject: Re: Nifty took support of 5 Days EMA |
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Channasri,
I generally dont work with shorter span avgs. 5D EMA is a very short period average. It's difficult to work with shorter timer span Moving Avg.s I think. I work with lot of patterns, Retracements, sentiments & confirming it with some other tools.
But anyway I feel NF may take support around 6120-18 & turn up again for now.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| channasri wrote: | Shashangan today Nifty took support of 5D Low EMA (5100) and closed with a small bounce from day's low of 6102.35. It will be interesting to see tomorrow's low and close. If closes below 5D Low EMA, then more downside to be anticipated is my opinion. Also, the intraday fall of 6180-6102 may give a retracement tomorrow. The 61.2% and 80% retracements come at 6151 and 6165 respectively. Bullishness above these levels only. In my opinion, short selling at 6151 keeping 6165 as SL may be a good trading idea. Request you to comment.
Regards,
Channasri |
| channasri wrote: | Shashangan I have observed that in the current rally Nifty has often taken support of 5days EMA and moved ahead. It took 5 days EMA (5138 as per icharts and 5136.43 as per google finance) support today also. Hence, I feel that tomorrow's close becomes important.
Regards,
Channasri |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1164 Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 12:06 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay, I feel the fall this week has been slow compared to last week, there was no steep selling, so it could mostly be a correction. I think if the fall had been big supported by high volume then there is danger of further panic selling, not necessary though.
As of now, I am also just watching. Not doing anything. Let's see what happens today & tomorrow.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| vinay28 wrote: |
Gautham, last Monday's low volume gave an indication that the fall was shallow. Comparatively, today's and yesterday's volume was more than last Monday. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1165 Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 12:09 pm Post subject: |
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| shashangan wrote: | Vinay, I feel the fall this week has been slow compared to last week, there was no steep selling, so it could mostly be a correction. I think if the fall had been big supported by high volume then there is danger of further panic selling, not necessary though.
As of now, I am also just watching. Not doing anything. Let's see what happens today & tomorrow.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
that's what gautham. though volume was more than last monday, fall was less |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1166 Posted: Wed May 22, 2013 2:43 pm Post subject: |
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I think the mkt may bottom around 6084-81 for now.
Let's see if it can pull up to close in green.
Play carefully
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1167 Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 8:53 am Post subject: |
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Mkt may open below 6085 & may try 6065 again before going up.
If anybody want to risk you can buy around 6066-64 (if you get) with stop 6045. It can be risky, & it's only for intra day.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1168 Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | 6306 may be difficult to cross in May but there is a huge "left-out" feeling, even among many funds in all the markets and liquidity is massive and is continuosly flowing in. With USD appreciating and INR and yen depreciating, more the spread and more money will keep coming. To add to that, retail participation is almost nil and hence distributing at the top is going to be difficult.
Hence, I feel we are yet to see a crescendo rising to the final climax that pulls in all and sundry in the vortex. Bank nifty has already given the hint of a new all time high. The fall from whatever level that mighht be may not be good for the weak hearted. However, at the same time, that time may be the best ever to invest. I feel market may go up till 31/5 or 07/06 with either minor correction from 6230-90 or one as high as 300 points but in one day only (like 13/05), perhaps early next week (Tuesday?). |
almost 300 point fall did come but neither in one day nor on tuesday. |
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vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
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| Post: #1169 Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 11:54 am Post subject: |
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| vinay28 wrote: | | shashangan wrote: | Vinay, around 6140 NF may be.
Though I felt there was a possibility of a correction today, I didn't want it to happen, since it affects the flow & the picture I have. But anyway it has corrected. Now I have to watch the move for next 2-3 days.
I am a bit confused now. But yes if it comes down near 6080 by Wednesday Thursday & recovers again to go back to close a weekly bull on friday it would be great.
I have a training program, so wont be there in the morning. Will try If I can be there near close, but not sure.
Let me see what mkt does & shall update. I dont know about that 300 point one day move. But today's correction probably showing one small possibility of reaching near 6400, but still may not break. Let it start going up again & we will take it from there. I shall stick to my old view for now.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
yes gautham, 6133/6090 NS is crucial for reversal now, otherwise who knows even 6052/5967 may also come. I am still bullish (though hedged) unless there is much more and longer time fall. |
Low of 5973 as of now. |
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shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
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| Post: #1170 Posted: Thu May 23, 2013 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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Vinay,
Like I had mentioned if a fall comes, it's a confusion. I am still wondering has it made a top.
The break of the previous week is not good for bulls. But anyway after the Monday fall I did expect mkt will remain uncertain till wednesday or thursday & was thinking it will make a huge surge towards thursday close that's today & again break the high by tomorrow close & make the weekly close green.
But I don't know if it's going to happen. That would be a move like what you were expecting. I have not traded for some time & have no positions & I am just quietly watching. Just waiting for some clear direction.
For now mkt is looking sideways to down at least till 2.15.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
Last edited by shashangan on Thu May 23, 2013 12:18 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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