iCharts Discussions

[shashangan]

Target achieved.

Mkt still looks down for Monday too. But anyway intraday players can cover for the day if you dont want to risk.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

It's my pleasure

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Finally for Bank Nifty, I found a reasonably ok chart for free.

Check chart. T3 could be target. It can go even below that. We will look at it when it gets there.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

[satishkadam]

[shashangan]

Oops,

I am so sorry. I meant Monday. not tomorrow Satish.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Today's massive bear candle on daily.

Inverted Hammer on Weekly & Inverted hammer on Monthly confirming end of uptrend mostly. The H & S another reversal pattern co-relating to the trend.

Longs need to be put in utmost caution, not to get wiped out.

I could be wrong.

Enjoy your weekend.
Gautham Shashangan

[SP50]

[vinay28]

Gautham, while monthly candle is indeed bearish inverted hammer, same can not be said about weekly. Though it can be called a gravestone doji also, it is not ideally placed to be so bearish. What's more, inspite of huge selling pressure, last week's low was not broken even though volume was similar. Also, this week's close is within last week's real body. Let's see how Monday and next week gives further confirmation.

The similarity of daily candles of 6-13 May and 27-31 May is interesting. Also, note the arch formed by daily candles of this week with one leg green and other red with equal lows. Hint of a double bottom? If so, I won't be surprised to see a mirror image of candles from 20-24 May after this thereby forming a big "W". Just a wild feeling.

[shashangan]

Vinay,

The fact that the mkt opened & immediately there was selling without any wick (meaning open itself was high) & closing at the low showed the strong panic post noon. Nobody wanted to pull the mkt back up even near closing to finish it a little higher is a negative sentiment.

Also the weekly candle does look a inverted hammer more than Grave stone doji. For Doji the open & close has to be same (a margin of one point - max 2 points is accepted). It doesn't look exactly a grave stone pattern too, though that pattern is also a bearish by itself if you say so.

Another add on to support the negativeness is, Bank nifty broke the neck line of the H & S pattern already. Go down the thread & Check the previous chart attached.

Your observation (The similarity of daily candles of 6-13 May and 27-31 May) is sharp. But you also need to question - in a human body generally right & left shoulders will be same. So consider it a similar formation of the right shoulder - what could follow on a break is again a panic sell - since it's already becoming more prominent, though it was not a proper H & S. (Again reminding - Bank Nifty has formed the pattern & already broken the neck line, so there should be further selling in Bank Nifty, where the sentiment can spill over to other sectors & bring down Nifty too)

Also weekly has closed below last week. It's not necessary it has to break the low, the fact it gave back all the week's gain & broke the week's open & closed below last week's close is negative. You can go back any chart & check similar formation & mostly it will go further down than up.

Well it's not necessary I should be right. But lot of factors is hinting a fall than a recovery. It can still happen. But it's better not to hold a emotional Long here, unless you have a strong analysis telling you it will go up. Just dont get trapped is my advice.

Again it's my view, I need not be right. So take your own decision. I am just explaining why I am confident the fall is more than a reversal up.

Like always, I will stick to one trend - No If's & buts. I am not responsible for anybody's losses. Please do your own analysis. I can be wrong.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

[rsnerella]

Good sho(r)t.

[vinay28]

Gautham, I am not emotionally long!

Just some observations ...... devil's advocate, if you may!

[shashangan]

Vinay if you are not long it's good according to me. But the advice is in general for anybody holding long, that's the reason I have given a detailed explanation.

Though lot of people would not have spotted the H&S & if they saw it, they would have had their doubts because it was not a proper H&S. That's reason, yesterday itself I drew the chart & showed the formation & what could follow well in advance. Though it did break above the right shoulder top, just to confuse & swallow some stops.

Generally if I am doubtful I would say to close the positions by closing, but I didn't mention to close the short EOD yesterday, since I knew it was just a false break up to swallow some stops & confuse.

Infact after Satish asked me to give my view on Bank Nifty made me look at it & that was a additional support to my analysis.

Yes there is one possibility, there can be a pull back to the neck line before the next sell off starts for Bank Nifty.

Anyway let's see how it goes next week.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan

[shashangan]

Thanks Nerella.

Gautham Shashangan

[quote="rsnerella"]Good sho(r)t.

[vinay28]

HnS has been commented upon for quite a few days. 6060 could be a major hurdle in a bounce back. Only above 6138, bulls have hope.

[channasri]

Shashangan, I thank you for the kind reply with hourly charts showing the usefulness of 13EMA/36EMA crossovers. It is a very good one. I am sorry for the late reply as I was away.

My opinion is that crossover of 13EMA/36SMA gives signals 1-2 candles earlier. It is usually preceded by 36EMA/36SMA crossovers which hint at possible change in trend. Confirmation comes when both 36 MAs turn opposite and 13EMA crosses over 36SMA.

Please advise me regarding a trading system that gives faster signals than moving averages.