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Nifty Analysis
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Author Nifty Analysis
shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #181   PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good day to all.

Got my Morning call, Sell & top right for yesterday. The bottom got extended, but like I said It's difficult to say the entire moves of intra day in advance without feeling the pulse of the mkt, but the mkt is still bullish you saw it pull back strongly from the lows to close a bit higher.

Anyway, with the pull back & considering strong U.S close, Nifty Nov might possibly open around 5660-65 with a high of possibly around 5672 - 5680 at the Monday open.

The mkt may give a pull back to 5640, Where you would see some buying interest coming in. It may try filling the closing gap of Friday towards 5630 area before starting the next surge to break highs by afternoon. The mkt may max go to 5620 if low is extended (doubtful).

5720-25 will be the min target by Tuesday for Nov Nifty & around 5770 area by Thursday before correcting back to 5710 area, If I am not wrong. Shall update more if I find anything else from my analysis.

If somebody bought even around 5619-16 area & holding you could be lucky on Monday with a higher open. My call may sound a little over ambitious at the moment to many. But I like predicting moves in advance, because when I get it right, it motivates me that the time i spend to analyse & study is really worth it. It keeps challenging me to read the top analysts & big player's mind of the trend. Anyway I could be wrong do your own analysis. Play safe. Wear Helmets.

Enjoy your weekend.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
I am trying to make an approximate guess of tomorrow based on my analysis. I need to be there to tell the exact intra day moves. So this could be wrong & too early to project, since intra day moves are very difficult to predict accurately without seeing. Anyway let's see, here is my view.

I have a feeling probably mkt may be down in the morning. 5647 Nov will see some selling with max 5652 after the open.

5652- 5611 could be the range till 11.30 am. Mkt may see some buying at @ 5619-16 area. If this level can get in some good strong weekend buying interest, the mkt may go to break the highs again in the afternoon.

But If the buying is not strong going through noon, then probably people may book their profits for the weekend or short to make the weekly closing look bear. Remember people will also start switching their positions from Nov to Dec. So it's quite difficult to say without seeing the mkt.

But I am not bearish, I still stand bullish on my view for 5880-5900 target in December. I am just trying to picturise the whole move of tomorrow since I wont be there. Again this view is a guess, do your analysis I could be wrong. Since there will be other factors of World Markets & $ movements which can also affect the open.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
Yellow Belt


Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552

Post: #182   PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shashangan wrote:
Good day to all.

Got my Morning call, Sell & top right for yesterday. The bottom got extended, but like I said It's difficult to say the entire moves of intra day in advance without feeling the pulse of the mkt, but the mkt is still bullish you saw it pull back strongly from the lows to close a bit higher.

Anyway, with the pull back & considering strong U.S close, Nifty Nov might possibly open around 5660-65 with a high of possibly around 5672 - 5680 at the Monday open.

The mkt may give a pull back to 5640, Where you would see some buying interest coming in. It may try filling the closing gap of Friday towards 5630 area before starting the next surge to break highs by afternoon. The mkt may max go to 5620 if low is extended (doubtful).

5720-25 will be the min target by Tuesday for Nov Nifty & around 5770 area by Thursday before correcting back to 5710 area, If I am not wrong. Shall update more if I find anything else from my analysis.

If somebody bought even around 5619-16 area & holding you could be lucky on Monday with a higher open. My call may sound a little over ambitious at the moment to many. But I like predicting moves in advance, because when I get it right, it motivates me that the time i spend to analyse & study is really worth it. It keeps challenging me to read the top analysts & big player's mind of the trend. Anyway I could be wrong do your own analysis. Play safe. Wear Helmets.

Enjoy your weekend.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
I am trying to make an approximate guess of tomorrow based on my analysis. I need to be there to tell the exact intra day moves. So this could be wrong & too early to project, since intra day moves are very difficult to predict accurately without seeing. Anyway let's see, here is my view.

I have a feeling probably mkt may be down in the morning. 5647 Nov will see some selling with max 5652 after the open.

5652- 5611 could be the range till 11.30 am. Mkt may see some buying at @ 5619-16 area. If this level can get in some good strong weekend buying interest, the mkt may go to break the highs again in the afternoon.

But If the buying is not strong going through noon, then probably people may book their profits for the weekend or short to make the weekly closing look bear. Remember people will also start switching their positions from Nov to Dec. So it's quite difficult to say without seeing the mkt.

But I am not bearish, I still stand bullish on my view for 5880-5900 target in December. I am just trying to picturise the whole move of tomorrow since I wont be there. Again this view is a guess, do your analysis I could be wrong. Since there will be other factors of World Markets & $ movements which can also affect the open.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan

I exited from calls on thursday last as per your suggestion[ 5600 in profit and rest with loss].
Planning to enter 5700 call on monday.
Do you support?
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #183   PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh No Acharya, why you exit in loss. I told to exit only the Nov ones in profit.

I thought in case if mkt closes weak & if mkt opens on Mon same you can buy fresh ones in Dec contract.

Anyway be watchful. Though I am confident & bullish dont take too much risk. You should be prepared for the reverse also.

Sorry I was unable to be there yesterday. If not I could have asked you to buy in Dec again.

Let's see, we will do something even otherwise.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #184   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intra day buy

Nov - 5629-25 Stop 5610
Dec - 5663-60 Stop 5635

People who want to risk buying options can buy Nov where there is absolute no risk till Thursday or in December for medium term.

Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #185   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can also buy Nifty @ CMP 5632 with a 5600 put buy in November @ 15.50. It's a good option strategy. It will give you cover for next 3 days instead of placing stop.

Or you can buy calls of Nov or Dec based on your risk taking ability.

Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #186   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A immediate strong break in Nov of 5646 in next 5-10 min.s will take it to new highs.

Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #187   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I am not wrong, (5654-58)The mkt may ease a bit near highs for some time, before taking some base to launch off.

Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #188   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As predicted on Saturday. Open is difficult to predict, but it did open higher. Anyway rest remains same. Longs should benefit. Possible upside target for today can be around 5665 for Nov since it didnt try at today's open.

shashangan wrote:
Good day to all.

Anyway, with the pull back & considering strong U.S close, Nifty Nov might possibly open around 5660-65 with a high of possibly around 5672 - 5680 at the Monday open.

The mkt may give a pull back to 5640, Where you would see some buying interest coming in. It may try filling the closing gap of Friday towards 5630 area before starting the next surge to break highs by afternoon. The mkt may max go to 5620 if low is extended (doubtful).

5720-25 will be the min target by Tuesday for Nov Nifty & around 5770 area by Thursday before correcting back to 5710 area, If I am not wrong. Shall update more if I find anything else from my analysis.

If somebody bought even around 5619-16 area & holding you could be lucky on Monday with a higher open. My call may sound a little over ambitious at the moment to many. But I like predicting moves in advance, because when I get it right, it motivates me that the time i spend to analyse & study is really worth it. It keeps challenging me to read the top analysts & big player's mind of the trend. Anyway I could be wrong do your own analysis. Play safe. Wear Helmets.

Enjoy your weekend.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
I am trying to make an approximate guess of tomorrow based on my analysis. I need to be there to tell the exact intra day moves. So this could be wrong & too early to project, since intra day moves are very difficult to predict accurately without seeing. Anyway let's see, here is my view.

I have a feeling probably mkt may be down in the morning. 5647 Nov will see some selling with max 5652 after the open.

5652- 5611 could be the range till 11.30 am. Mkt may see some buying at @ 5619-16 area. If this level can get in some good strong weekend buying interest, the mkt may go to break the highs again in the afternoon.

But If the buying is not strong going through noon, then probably people may book their profits for the weekend or short to make the weekly closing look bear. Remember people will also start switching their positions from Nov to Dec. So it's quite difficult to say without seeing the mkt.

But I am not bearish, I still stand bullish on my view for 5880-5900 target in December. I am just trying to picturise the whole move of tomorrow since I wont be there. Again this view is a guess, do your analysis I could be wrong. Since there will be other factors of World Markets & $ movements which can also affect the open.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #189   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nov should not go below 5638-37 as of now.

shashangan wrote:
If I am not wrong, (5654-58)The mkt may ease a bit near highs for some time, before taking some base to launch off.

Gautham Shashangan
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
Yellow Belt


Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552

Post: #190   PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shashangan wrote:
Nov should not go below 5638-37 as of now.

shashangan wrote:
If I am not wrong, (5654-58)The mkt may ease a bit near highs for some time, before taking some base to launch off.

Gautham Shashangan

holding one lot naked mini nifty bought today.
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #191   PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nov should not have gone below 5638 yesterday after the highs.

Anyway the overall trend is still same as per my analysis.

Mkt again will try opening higher today. Let's hope the strong up move happens today. I think Dec will try breaking 5700 today hopefully. Again It's based on my analysis, I can be wrong.

Let's see after the open.

Good luck & hope for the best.
Gautham Shashangan

[/quote]
holding one lot naked mini nifty bought today.[/quote]
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
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Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552

Post: #192   PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sgx 52 points up, supporting your view of higher opening.
By the by, shall I exit at open once?
shashangan wrote:
Nov should not have gone below 5638 yesterday after the highs.

Anyway the overall trend is still same as per my analysis.

Mkt again will try opening higher today. Let's hope the strong up move happens today. I think Dec will try breaking 5700 today hopefully. Again It's based on my analysis, I can be wrong.

Let's see after the open.

Good luck & hope for the best.
Gautham Shashangan


holding one lot naked mini nifty bought today.[/quote][/quote]
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #193   PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes Dec around 5690-95 open expected.

I think you can exit, because there willl be a big gap between the close & open, so atleast partially it may correct to fill the gap, definitely the high of yesterday if not close.

Gautham shashangan

acharyams wrote:
Sgx 52 points up, supporting your view of higher opening.
By the by, shall I exit at open once?
shashangan wrote:
Nov should not have gone below 5638 yesterday after the highs.

Anyway the overall trend is still same as per my analysis.

Mkt again will try opening higher today. Let's hope the strong up move happens today. I think Dec will try breaking 5700 today hopefully. Again It's based on my analysis, I can be wrong.

Let's see after the open.

Good luck & hope for the best.
Gautham Shashangan


holding one lot naked mini nifty bought today.
[/quote][/quote]
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acharyams
Yellow Belt
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Joined: 04 Jul 2010
Posts: 552

Post: #194   PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

exited nov mini 5664
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #195   PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good. There will be a panic of stop buying for now. Mkt will settle down after some time & may correct. It's difficult to tell when there is a huge gap. May take some time. Shall update on any signs of correction or entry.

Gautham Shashangan
acharyams wrote:
exited nov mini 5664
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