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Nifty Analysis
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Author Nifty Analysis
shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1816   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Krishna,

If you have multiple longs, Book partial profit 6319-21 & replace lower.

Above 6332 & 6348 there should be panic covering. Wont be surprised if there is a wild & mad up move.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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musicaldelhi
White Belt
White Belt


Joined: 17 Nov 2011
Posts: 186

Post: #1817   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

shashangan wrote:
Good morning

My view remains same. Keep stops below 6230. There is a small chance of a dip to 6247-44 NF area again just to scare the longs. Place order to Buy from 6249 & below.

I feel the recovery would be very strong, fast & suddenly above 6340 without giving a chance for longs to re-enter & shorts to book their losses. First scare & push as many longs out & then later trap the shorts with a sharp recovery.

Play minimum, Play with stop

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan




superb analysis shashangan ji...as always

really i missed the ride.. Crying or Very sad

but you are amazing.. artist
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ca.krishna
White Belt
White Belt


Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 158

Post: #1818   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks...I have booked 50% and holding balance 50%
shashangan wrote:
Thanks Krishna,

If you have multiple longs, Book partial profit 6319-21 & replace lower.

Above 6332 & 6348 there should be panic covering. Wont be surprised if there is a wild & mad up move.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1819   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks MD,

Place an order to buy NF @ 6301-98 with tight stop 6280. Feel above 6338 lot of stops would trigger. Play minimum.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

musicaldelhi wrote:

superb analysis shashangan ji...as always

really i missed the ride.. Crying or Very sad

but you are amazing.. artist
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1820   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If not bought Place an order to buy NF @ 6287-85 with tight stop 6277. Play minimum.

Hopefully should start moving up just after 13.20 hrs.

Intra day - Tata steel buy @ 370-69 stop 360. Low showing now 371.06

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1821   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Buy

Rel Ind - 864
Rel comm - 128
Tata Motors - 372-70
Tata Power - 76.40
Tata Steel - 371-70
Bharti Airtel - 307-305

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1822   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you have Higher buys exit @ 6305 & hold the lower ones with stop 6275.

regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1823   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Immediately NF 6305 above should trigger some buying. If the move gets stronger it's good for breaking highs.

Let's see what. A move below low will slow down the intra bull

Regards
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1824   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since mkt not gaining momentum, If you want to do some punting, Exit @ 6310-11 & Replace lower. Thinking closing should go up.

Shall update the buy again if it corrects. Medium term players can hold.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1825   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Place an order to Buy NF again @ 6293-91 with stop 6277. Min immediate Tgt 6359-62.

Regards,
Gautham Shashanan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1826   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After a long time was free to update today.

Shorts should just pray it doesn't open very far higher. If above 6338 may not fill gap & can try 6385 for intra day followed by 6530 hopefully by Thursday.

There is a T/L resistance near 6360, but may take it out sharply, since many traders would possibly exit & short that level.

But still the mkt has not been fully convincing to me, as I am expecting a bloody sharp up move for long now & it has not come yet.

Below 6285 immediate stops & below 6245 more stops. Let's see tomorrow.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #1827   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shashangan wrote:
.........If above 6338 may not fill gap & can try 6385 for intra day followed by 6530 hopefully by Thursday.....


gautham, my levels almost tally with yours. Difference being my highest level for this week is 6492NF as of now provided 60/120 tf closes above 6348.
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1828   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes Vinay, it will be too big a move if you picturise the candle for 6530.

But I am expecting one gap & such a move based on pshcology, since a move like that will be a total trap of shorts, as they would hold their position, since the gap up & loss would already be big & emotions will take over. So that will give the punters the merry to keep pushing Nifty higher & higher till this bears are dragged bleeding to their defeat & bailing out.

The other thing is 6360 onwards they will average & every small move up will keep triggering the panic bail outs, eventually resulting in 6530. It can happen since nobody would be expecting such a big move so fast, even the longs who are bullish.

It's been playing on my mind. Dont get carried away, Not necessary, I will be right. Just posting my feeling. Also I will have to re-look my analysis if mkt fools me & dips below 6245. As of now I am positive. It needs to strongly break break 6339 & 6348 levels for the next action to watch. let's see tomorrow.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #1829   PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shashangan wrote:
Yes Vinay, it will be too big a move if you picturise the candle for 6530.

But I am expecting one gap & such a move based on pshcology, since a move like that will be a total trap of shorts, as they would hold their position, since the gap up & loss would already be big & emotions will take over. So that will give the punters the merry to keep pushing Nifty higher & higher till this bears are dragged bleeding to their defeat & bailing out.

The other thing is 6360 onwards they will average & every small move up will keep triggering the panic bail outs, eventually resulting in 6530. It can happen since nobody would be expecting such a big move so fast, even the longs who are bullish.

It's been playing on my mind. Dont get carried away, Not necessary, I will be right. Just posting my feeling. Also I will have to re-look my analysis if mkt fools me & dips below 6245. As of now I am positive. It needs to strongly break break 6339 & 6348 levels for the next action to watch. let's see tomorrow.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan


agreed gautham but such things normally happen after showing more carrots to the bears. So may be one more false move down this week. I am saying this because a down move to about 6255NS is likely before the slaughter begins. But one never knows. That moment may have already come as you say.
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #1830   PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vinay, to be honest the moves for some time has be quite irritating to me. If you look at the weekly charts, last 8 weeks it has been around these levels.

Yesterday I was also having confusion & doubts as It came close to NF 6244 & 6235, but I was just holding on to my nerve than changing my stand & it didn't test or break, just as my gut feeling.

The recovery of yesterday from low was pure mental psychology which I guessed. So same I feel now about the higher break out. A down move again will be another testing of my nerves & patience. Looking at weekly congestion a break out both sides is possible, but if you look at the break out levels the nearest & closest is the upper levels.

Considering 6339 & *6348* the immediate break out levels, which is a hop away from where the NF closed (6318) followed by the next barrier, which is the sloping T/L around 6365. Taking out 6365, the next level 6410 I feel should not be difficult to break. If trap psychology has to work, what I feel should happen since this is the right time for exploiting the Shorts weakness & a continuous sharp up move will help the punters reap the harvest.

The lower break out levels 6244 being far & the next total reversal level being 6150 which is even farther now, my sixth sense is just saying, dont rule out the possibility of a wild up move, just because nobody would expect such a strong up move normally, I have this feeling.

Anyway we will know by noon hopefully. Let's see what the mkt has in store. My views just to caution shorts not to take big risks & also for longs to play minimum.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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