iCharts Discussions

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

gautham, on an event day like today, such SA fails to give good judgement. that's ok.

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:26 pm Post subject:

Thanks RK

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:41 pm Post subject:

Anyway it was a Good day. Like I expected mkt closed in Red, not very convincing though, the weekly didn't turn Red, which would have added some spice to my view.

I will try & analyse everything over the weekend & see if there is any ray of bearish hope.

I am stepping out. Shall check in later.

Enjoy your weekend
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:15 pm Post subject:

Nifty December futures

The mkt movements looks little confusing to me. It can be a choppy mkt till Wednesday. I still sense a small dip if not big, which is also a possibility. The mkt possibly may not go much higher even if it tries to break highs to trigger the panic button for bears. I shall update on the trend once I get a confirmed view. I mention I am not confirming a bear trend, but for now I am not bullish. I may change my view if the mkt behaves differently than what I am thinking.

Possible Monday Opening - 5935-45

Projected Intra day opening high - 5960 to max 5970.

Mkt should not cross 5980. Any sharp moves above 5980 can trigger stops & can turn slightly risky for bears.

A sharp break below 5915 will trigger the panic button for intra day longs to bail out & turn short term bearish, targeting min 5895-85 region.

There is a possibility the mkt may try going up late Monday or on Tuesday just for keeping the bullish momentum view. But can Possibly turn red, thru to Wednesday & Thursday to a Near term 5845 followed by 5820 targets i.e, if no strong buying interest arrives on Monday or Tuesday to break highs.

As long as mkt remains below 5980 till Tuesday the above could be on cards.

Though early - If short term bear confirmed then Weekly target could be 5780 this week & 5740-20 before 22nd Dec, followed by December month's medium term minimum target 5645 followed by 5595.

There has been erratic movements in Dow & Nasdaq. Anyway if Nasdaq (CMP 2638) makes a sharp fall or close below 2622 will take it to min 2585. Any further selling will trigger a short term bear trend in Nasdaq as well targetting 2542, 2464 & 2435. Dow doesn't look very clear to me.

Play safe. If you want to long play minimum, play cautiously. I may buy 5600 & 5500 puts if I get a confirmed picture of a bear trend.

My view is a approximate guess some bit based on technicals & some of it based on psychological gut feeling, which can change tomorrow or Tuesday. So Kindly do your own analysis, I can be wrong.

Regards & Good luck,
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:48 am Post subject:

I think Nifty likely to be quiet, in a range for some time. We have too see what happens after 1 or 2 pm

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:02 pm Post subject:

Place an order to Short Dec @ 5941 or above with a tight Stop @ 5954 or safe stop 5968

Mkt may try max 5948-50 If i am not wrong.

Play mini if you dont want to risk & dont play without stops near closing.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:00 am Post subject:

Dec likely to open around 5960.

As I had mentioned in my post, a possibility on Tuesday Nifty could try near the highs. we need to keep an watch of the mkt today if it will break 5980 & 5990

Anyway the trend is still not confirmed a bear trend, since the falls on Friday & even yesterday was not very convincing. The two attempts near 5918 on Friday & 5919 yesterday also is confusing.

But again I am not bullish. Let's see what happens. Shall update later.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:59 am Post subject:

There could be one more attempt to the highs possibly.

Around 5973 to max 6005 around is the range for Dec till 1 pm.

Hoping the next attempt to highs probably late in the afternoon may see some closing selling, which would be good for my view. Shall confirm it when it gets there.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:15 am Post subject:

It's ok if it closes green today. But a closing around or below 5965 would be great & my target of 5842 would still be a possibility by Thursday.

Like I mentioned Tuesday it can try breaking highs to keep the bullish view. All my predictions are a picturised guess. As you all know I am talking of a bear trend in a strong bull mkt & that too right at top. So do your analysis, I can be wrong. Dont curse me later I misguided people. Because my analysis is totally different from most people.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:51 am Post subject:

Just to re- confirm the old projection given in October. I started with this post if you remember.

Though the entire move doesn't look same, but approximately it has been right. So the projection is a picturisation of how it could be analysing every detail, but it's not possible to predict it to pin point accuracy, since we are all humans.

But there is a small deviation from my old projection since the moves has been slightly different in actual terms.

Hope I have more time to do a thorough research to get everything right. I am not George Soros, but trying hard to be different & reliable & make my own identity.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject:

Though no full confirmation, I thought of risking so

I have bought one Dec 5600 put @ 3.60 & one Jan 5500 put @ 10.35.

I shall ask you to do the same once I get full confirmation. You can wait since it could be slightly risky for you for now.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:40 pm Post subject:

So far so good. Everything going just as I expected. Hoping closing also will be as per my view.

I had also mentioned it's only slightly risky even if it crosses 5980.

The late Monday or early tuesday up move which I had expected is to trap the longs as I picturised, they broke the high to trigger stops, but reading psychology that was expected, so they can catch everybody off guard & trap them.

Mkt still looking sideways to down for the moment. I think we have to wait & see till 2.30 pm, I am hoping there should not be any strong buying near the close, which is what longs will be expecting, hoping they hammer the mkt further to totally leave out the longs awestruck in grim despair.

Though early, It will be a inverted pull back bear close, if it closes lower which is a bearish reversal. I can still be wrong. Play cautiously.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:06 pm Post subject:

Hope the selling comes in again around 5930 Dec.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:20 pm Post subject:

The bulls are fighting a valiant battle around 5930 to pull the mkt up. Let's see if they will give up.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:30 pm Post subject:

There- Gas out for the bulls, they mkt is not going up in spite of pumping in so many buy orders. They are losing strength to fight now. They are sensing something wrong, so given up for today.

let's see tomorrow.

Gautham Shashangan