| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Nifty Analysis |
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
Post: #376  Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:29 am Post subject: |
 |
|
You are welcome Vinay.
Anyway I did my analysis based on what I understand & what I feel. May be the projection I have given is more bearish, since mentally I am bearish.
You can try & figure out if there is any bullish outlook yourselves, since it is not necessary the mkt has to behave how I think or how I want.
But anyway, I have shown a bullish channel, where the mkt just took support yesterday & a small bearish channel on the chart where 3 spikes I have connected on the Spot charts.
Gautham Shashangan
| vinay28 wrote: | | thanks gautham |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #377 Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
Intra day Spot chart attached to show the congestion.
As per Nf, If you see every time around 5920 Nifty is bouncing, the punters are either little skeptic to take risk because they normally dont enter in between. The enter at resistance or support. So in this case near support they should enter to Short the mkt to trigger down the stops below it, but what ever reason mkt is bouncing back.
So either, they dont want to risk, so immediately covering back or have some slow poison plan by playing on traders mind game of guessing.
Test of minds & patience. If you see, the channel is getting narrow so mkt has no choice but to come out of it soon.
Let's see. I am still keeping my fingers crossed.
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #378 Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:42 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Bingo. Hope nobody lost if not made money.
| shashangan wrote: | Nifty December futures
The mkt movements looks little confusing to me. It can be a choppy mkt till Wednesday. I still sense a small dip if not big, which is also a possibility. The mkt possibly may not go much higher even if it tries to break highs to trigger the panic button for bears. I shall update on the trend once I get a confirmed view. I mention I am not confirming a bear trend, but for now I am not bullish. I may change my view if the mkt behaves differently than what I am thinking.
Possible Monday Opening - 5935-45
Projected Intra day opening high - 5960 to max 5970.
Mkt should not cross 5980. Any sharp moves above 5980 can trigger stops & can turn slightly risky for bears.
A sharp break below 5915 will trigger the panic button for intra day longs to bail out & turn short term bearish, targeting min 5895-85 region.
There is a possibility the mkt may try going up late Monday or on Tuesday just for keeping the bullish momentum view. But can Possibly turn red, thru to Wednesday & Thursday to a Near term 5845 followed by 5820 targets i.e, if no strong buying interest arrives on Monday or Tuesday to break highs.
As long as mkt remains below 5980 till Tuesday the above could be on cards.
Though early - If short term bear confirmed then Weekly target could be 5780 this week & 5740-20 before 22nd Dec, followed by December month's medium term minimum target 5645 followed by 5595.
There has been erratic movements in Dow & Nasdaq. Anyway if Nasdaq (CMP 2638) makes a sharp fall or close below 2622 will take it to min 2585. Any further selling will trigger a short term bear trend in Nasdaq as well targetting 2542, 2464 & 2435. Dow doesn't look very clear to me.
Play safe. If you want to long play minimum, play cautiously. I may buy 5600 & 5500 puts if I get a confirmed picture of a bear trend.
My view is a approximate guess some bit based on technicals & some of it based on psychological gut feeling, which can change tomorrow or Tuesday. So Kindly do your own analysis, I can be wrong.
Regards & Good luck,
Gautham Shashangan |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #379 Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I have been punting shorts continuously by holding on to one mini continuously short from 5978 from last Thursday.
Discipline, Patience & Confidence pays off. I have stopped playing or giving calls against the main trend, so this time restrained myself from giving any buy calls.
Quite content, so far so good. Hope all my targets come true to everybody's surprise.
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #380 Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Intra day shorts can place order to cover Dec @ 5865-61 to replace higher. Positional shorts can partially cover
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #381 Posted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:29 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Dow Nasdaq down for the moment. Hope it doesnt make a recovery. Let it close lower. Good for Nifty bears.
Wishing tomorrow mkt opens below today's low 5866 in Dec & touch my 1st target around 5844 @ the open itself, since it could not achieve it today.
It will send some panic for other longs who are holding & being a Friday there could be change of sentiment to bearish to bring in new shorts on every pull back, unless some unexpected drama happens.
Let's see
Good night
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #382 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:14 am Post subject: |
|
|
Dec to open 5880+.
Place an order to short Dec @ 5899 with stop 5922 Target 5844
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
kalpana09
White Belt
Joined: 29 Nov 2012
Posts: 8
|
| Post: #383 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:02 am Post subject: |
|
|
| overall trend positive or negative? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #384 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:06 am Post subject: |
|
|
Still early to say. But I think if things work according to my expectations -
Mkt may play sideways to down for December. But the overall bull trend is probably still up. The mkt will resume up to break highs to try 6150-6200+ by Feb.
Short term negative - Long term positive
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| kalpana09 wrote: | | overall trend positive or negative? |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
kalpana09
White Belt
Joined: 29 Nov 2012
Posts: 8
|
| Post: #385 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:48 am Post subject: |
|
|
| i think inflation data may have impact today |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #386 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
Yes Kalpana, Possible. Have to see how much.
Gautham Shashangan
| kalpana09 wrote: | | i think inflation data may have impact today |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
rajmuthusamy
White Belt
Joined: 05 Jan 2009
Posts: 24
|
| Post: #387 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:59 am Post subject: Mkt will bounce back |
|
|
Will it trap all Bears? Dec 18th is RBI review...if the mkts sustain upmove - it may rally till 18th....
Regards
Raj |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #388 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:15 pm Post subject: Re: Mkt will bounce back |
|
|
Sorry had been busy at office & having power cuts. Anyway regarding the review, generally what I suggest is you stay away from mkt when some important news is around, Since I dont get time to look at news & honestly I dont prefer watching TV or news, coz you get glued to it. I am trying to track the mkt between my busy schedule.
Also that's reason I keep myself protected or hedged with options, so I dont have to worry about intra day moves.
But yes strong moves can change the trend. Overall I am still bullish, but for December somehow my gut feeling is saying mkt may close in red for the month.
Gautham Shashangan
| rajmuthusamy wrote: | Will it trap all Bears? Dec 18th is RBI review...if the mkts sustain upmove - it may rally till 18th....
Regards
Raj |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #389 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
There is possibly one more high in Nifty before you see some selling It may top out around 2.30 pm I suppose.
Gautham Shashangan
Last edited by shashangan on Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:26 pm; edited 2 times in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
vinay28
Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748
|
| Post: #390 Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 1:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
power cut? 
which city are you in? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
