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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #556 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:49 pm Post subject: |
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Strange thing is Today is contract expiry,
Tomorrow is Weekly close
Monday is Monthly close which is important because
Monday is also yearly close.
But if you see Dec contract didnt' make a sharp break above 5930 nor it could close above 5925 so far, It would have made a big mess of my analysis.
Dec managed to close around 5870 which was the first resistance now a support. So there is no damage to the down trend projected as of now. We are through to thursday. Just 2 more trading days & below 5910 close in Jan on Monday would be Sone pe suhaga. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Regards
Gautham Shashangan
Below predicted on 18th Dec
shashangan wrote: | The mkt is broken & closed below a Major TL which it had tried several times. Check the daily chart TL drawn around 5866. It broke that TL on Monday (18/12) when it tried around 5840, but pulled back totally confusing many people.
So today (21/12) it has closed below 5866, which has weakened the trend & also making the weekly a bear close. There is no major support if you look back between TL 5866 & 5817. So fall can be big with only small intra day corrections possibly heading to 5782 & 5750 area subsequently after probably a small recovery from 5817.
Before turning up for the target around 6200, though little early to guage an extension to 5680-55 area cannot be ruled out on the lower side. It will unfold in due course based on the strength of the selling sentiment as mkt dips down.
The week's weak close indicates a bear close possibility on December monthly charts, which I have been telling for some time now
The first resistance area is 5866 -72 area. There can be a pull back possibly between 5885-93 area. Selling should start from around this area. If there is an extension, it may try 5900. According to me, a move above 5918 is most unlikely.
Only a sharp rally through 5930 or close a above 5925 is trend reversal.
Check the weekly projection chart I have attached. It's a rough picture of the movements. It need not be accurate nor correct. It's a estimate. I can go totally wrong though. So do your own analysis as well.
The charts are self explanatory. I have given all the explanation, which many analysts wont disclose. Anyway I hope it helps.
My best wishes for the festive season.
Gautham Shashangan
acharyams wrote: | shashangan wrote: | Nifty Daily chart Analysis.
I have made a quick projection. Hope It's right.
I can be wrong though. Let's see.
Good luck. Enjoy the weekend & the festive eve.
Gautham Shashangan |
Please discuss a bit on the attached chart. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #557 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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damn good gautham. One statement is confusing me i.e. "....below 5910 close in Jan on Monday....". Presume you mean close below 5910 Jan fut on 31st Dec? Also, what if it closes above 5925 by 31st Dec? |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #558 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:16 pm Post subject: |
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The problem is the Nifty futures is generally continuation on charts, so if it doesn't close below 5910 on Monday, the futures continuation monthly chart will be a bull close. It will be perfect because 5911 is the open for Dec monthly chart which now will be above since futures will take Jan as the running close which is above 5910 though Dec closes 5970 which is below.
If it closes above 5911 then I have to re work all my projections & it's gonna take a longer time for the bear trend to complete probably.
Gautham Shashangan
vinay28 wrote: | damn good gautham. One statement is confusing me i.e. "....below 5910 close in Jan on Monday....". Presume you mean close below 5910 Jan fut on 31st Dec? Also, what if it closes above 5925 by 31st Dec? |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #559 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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then where does 5925 come from?
Also, doesn't the fact that dec closed +ve above Nov help?
One more thing: nifty spot opened 5836 on 30th Nov but you say dec contract opened 5911?
sorry to keep you busy |
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apka Black Belt
Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137
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Post: #560 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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Nov spot close was 5879.85
Dec spot open was 5878.25
Dec spot high was 5965.15
Dec spot low was 5823.15
Dec spot close was 5870.10 |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #561 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:45 pm Post subject: |
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apka, we are talking about expiry periods and not calendart months |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #562 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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I am using free charts. I dont know how the monthly futures charts looks on yours.
This is one chart I am using. It's 4-5 points higher.
The open on this monthly chart is 5911, so it has to 5915. So Mon NF has to close below 5915 not 5911.
Because till yesterday NF charts was taking Dec contrct as future price, now this chart will continue with Jan charts. So automatically the candle is bullish though the Dec contract closed 5870 & it should have been a bear candle.
There is no problem with spot chart.
Gautham Shashangan
Last edited by shashangan on Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #563 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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OK Gautham. let me ask reg NS. It opened at 5836 on 30th Nov (first day of dec expiry) and at 5878.25 on 3rd Dec (first day of calendar month). So according to you NS should close on 31st Dec below which level? |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #564 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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There is no problem with Spot chart. The monthly chart is looking a red candle as of today. The problem is the premium in futures.
The spot monthly is looking bear & future is looking a bull as of today. That will be solved if the premium reduces & if Jan contract closes 5915 or below on Monday. Then spot & futures will be red, so no confusion.
Dont break your head. Just take a look at the monthly chart of spot & future you will understand. This happens on expiry before last day of month like 27th today & month candle is not complete, but contract is completed.
Gautham Shashangan
vinay28 wrote: | OK Gautham. let me ask reg NS. It opened at 5836 on 30th Nov (first day of dec expiry) and at 5878.25 on 3rd Dec (first day of calendar month). So according to you NS should close on 31st Dec below which level? |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #565 Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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"Dont break your head. Just take a look at the monthly chart of spot & future you will understand. This happens on expiry before last day of month like 27th today & month candle is not complete, but contract is completed."
No I am not breaking my head, just trying to understand your method. By the way expiry is rarely on last day of the month. |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #566 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:41 am Post subject: |
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I know, but I was not trading or focusing the mkt so much before, since i mostly never used to watch mkt so much. So I used to get confused now & again but it didnt matter, because I was only trading for myself.
But yes there will be confusion & problem on the technical analysts charts. I just explained since you asked, why mkt had to close below 5911.
The solution for this is with the exchange, they should make the expiry on the last trading day for the contract or best as 1st of the next month instead of last thursday. Eg; Dec contract instead of expiring yesterday 27th will expire on Mon 31st or Tuesday.
I hope you understood what the confusion on charts are, or you are still not clear. I am attaching a monthly chart of spot. Check as of yesterday close it's a bear candle & check the other future monthly chart I have attached as of yesterday it's a bull candle.
Most technical analysts will have trouble when this happens. You know I have been telling I want & expect Dec to close bear. But here though mkt has closed bear, it's showing bull due to the huge premium on futures. So you have to check both charts now & again & in dilemma which one to follow, since the candle patterns indicate different trends.
Hope it's clear
Gautham Shashangan
vinay28 wrote: | "
No I am not breaking my head, just trying to understand your method. By the way expiry is rarely on last day of the month. |
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vinay28 Black Belt
Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748
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Post: #567 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 8:47 am Post subject: |
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there was no confusion about what you said gautham but just a query. By the way, if I remember right, most markets close expiry on last Thursday.
thanks again |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #568 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:00 am Post subject: |
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Opening call
Jan poised to open between 5928-33.
From 5936 through to 5944 should see selling. Mkt may try max 5949 (unlikely) if extended & should not cross the level. Immediate Stops above 5955 followed by major stops above 5970.
Min Target 5919-15 area.
Gautham Shashangan |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #569 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:52 am Post subject: |
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Place an order to short Jan @ 5947-50 Tight stop 5956, Safe Stop 5972
Target open, Shall update later
Gautham Shashangan
Last edited by shashangan on Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:58 am; edited 1 time in total |
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shashangan Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 1321 Location: Bangalore
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Post: #570 Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:57 am Post subject: |
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No problem, you are welcome.
By the way spot has adjusted the premium with a gap up open.
Gautham Shashangan
vinay28 wrote: | there was no confusion about what you said gautham but just a query. By the way, if I remember right, most markets close expiry on last Thursday.
thanks again |
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