iCharts Discussions

shashangan · Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:49 pm Post subject:

Strange thing is Today is contract expiry,
Tomorrow is Weekly close
Monday is Monthly close which is important because
Monday is also yearly close.

But if you see Dec contract didnt' make a sharp break above 5930 nor it could close above 5925 so far, It would have made a big mess of my analysis.

Dec managed to close around 5870 which was the first resistance now a support. So there is no damage to the down trend projected as of now. We are through to thursday. Just 2 more trading days & below 5910 close in Jan on Monday would be Sone pe suhaga. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Regards
Gautham Shashangan

Below predicted on 18th Dec

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

damn good gautham. One statement is confusing me i.e. "....below 5910 close in Jan on Monday....". Presume you mean close below 5910 Jan fut on 31st Dec? Also, what if it closes above 5925 by 31st Dec?

shashangan · Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:16 pm Post subject:

The problem is the Nifty futures is generally continuation on charts, so if it doesn't close below 5910 on Monday, the futures continuation monthly chart will be a bull close. It will be perfect because 5911 is the open for Dec monthly chart which now will be above since futures will take Jan as the running close which is above 5910 though Dec closes 5970 which is below.

If it closes above 5911 then I have to re work all my projections & it's gonna take a longer time for the bear trend to complete probably.

Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

then where does 5925 come from?

Also, doesn't the fact that dec closed +ve above Nov help?

One more thing: nifty spot opened 5836 on 30th Nov but you say dec contract opened 5911?

sorry to keep you busy

apka · Black Belt Joined: 13 Dec 2011 Posts: 6137

Nov spot close was 5879.85

Dec spot open was 5878.25
Dec spot high was 5965.15
Dec spot low was 5823.15
Dec spot close was 5870.10

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

apka, we are talking about expiry periods and not calendart months

shashangan · Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:42 pm Post subject:

I am using free charts. I dont know how the monthly futures charts looks on yours.

This is one chart I am using. It's 4-5 points higher.

The open on this monthly chart is 5911, so it has to 5915. So Mon NF has to close below 5915 not 5911.

Because till yesterday NF charts was taking Dec contrct as future price, now this chart will continue with Jan charts. So automatically the candle is bullish though the Dec contract closed 5870 & it should have been a bear candle.

There is no problem with spot chart.

Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

OK Gautham. let me ask reg NS. It opened at 5836 on 30th Nov (first day of dec expiry) and at 5878.25 on 3rd Dec (first day of calendar month). So according to you NS should close on 31st Dec below which level?

shashangan · Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 10:00 pm Post subject:

There is no problem with Spot chart. The monthly chart is looking a red candle as of today. The problem is the premium in futures.

The spot monthly is looking bear & future is looking a bull as of today. That will be solved if the premium reduces & if Jan contract closes 5915 or below on Monday. Then spot & futures will be red, so no confusion.

Dont break your head. Just take a look at the monthly chart of spot & future you will understand. This happens on expiry before last day of month like 27th today & month candle is not complete, but contract is completed.

Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

"Dont break your head. Just take a look at the monthly chart of spot & future you will understand. This happens on expiry before last day of month like 27th today & month candle is not complete, but contract is completed."

Smile

No I am not breaking my head, just trying to understand your method. By the way expiry is rarely on last day of the month.

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:41 am Post subject:

I know, but I was not trading or focusing the mkt so much before, since i mostly never used to watch mkt so much. So I used to get confused now & again but it didnt matter, because I was only trading for myself.

But yes there will be confusion & problem on the technical analysts charts. I just explained since you asked, why mkt had to close below 5911.

The solution for this is with the exchange, they should make the expiry on the last trading day for the contract or best as 1st of the next month instead of last thursday. Eg; Dec contract instead of expiring yesterday 27th will expire on Mon 31st or Tuesday.

I hope you understood what the confusion on charts are, or you are still not clear. I am attaching a monthly chart of spot. Check as of yesterday close it's a bear candle & check the other future monthly chart I have attached as of yesterday it's a bull candle.

Most technical analysts will have trouble when this happens. You know I have been telling I want & expect Dec to close bear. But here though mkt has closed bear, it's showing bull due to the huge premium on futures. So you have to check both charts now & again & in dilemma which one to follow, since the candle patterns indicate different trends.

Hope it's clear

Gautham Shashangan

vinay28 · Black Belt Joined: 24 Dec 2010 Posts: 11748

there was no confusion about what you said gautham but just a query. By the way, if I remember right, most markets close expiry on last Thursday.

thanks again

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:00 am Post subject:

Opening call

Jan poised to open between 5928-33.

From 5936 through to 5944 should see selling. Mkt may try max 5949 (unlikely) if extended & should not cross the level. Immediate Stops above 5955 followed by major stops above 5970.

Min Target 5919-15 area.

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:52 am Post subject:

Place an order to short Jan @ 5947-50 Tight stop 5956, Safe Stop 5972

Target open, Shall update later

Gautham Shashangan

shashangan · Posted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:57 am Post subject:

No problem, you are welcome.

By the way spot has adjusted the premium with a gap up open.

Gautham Shashangan