|
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Nifty Analysis |
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
Post: #691  Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 8:48 am Post subject: |
 |
|
Shall update in the evening, since I have a training today & would leave by 9.45
Gautham Shashangan
| sw_das wrote: | Can you check this, what is the probability of a correction combining January, February.? It may be interesting to know.
Though history is one thing and current situation might be another one!
regards |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|
| |
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #692 Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:17 am Post subject: |
|
|
Cover your 6065-66 Shorts if you feel uncomfortable even for yesterday's 6043-45 shorts who held it. I will leave in another 30 min.s, I wont be there for the day. So take your decision
Gautham Shashangan
| shashangan wrote: | Hmm, you may be right, but my gut feeling I am going with my strategy.
This was my target to sell at the 1st time anyway, so i have sold, I am holding 2 mini shorts now, if it opens higher I will decide & short one more, if i feel it doesn't look risky.
Like you bought at low close on Friday I am shorting @ high close today & that too a new high in future. I didnt want to miss a sell @ 6065, since that was part of my actual strategy. Well there is risk, but that's how mkt is.
Like I had mentioned, they could try breaking the high once to trap the people who went short till Friday & holding. Most of the shorts would have panicked & cut their positions & reversed to long above 6045. So that's the picture I am still believing. & they did confuse me in picking the 6045 top & went to break the highs. So it's a psychological possibility to trigger shorts to bail them out & turn them to long. And hitting the 6065 target near closing so nobody would take a short position at closing. Hoping I will not go wrong. we will see.
Gautham Shashangan
| vinay28 wrote: | | I think 6077NF is possible |
|
| shashangan wrote: | I have another sell order for mini @ 6065.80. I am feeling it's a good sell.
But I may be wrong.
Gautham Shashangan |
| shashangan wrote: | It can possibly go through my stop Satish, It did reverse from 6045, but It didnt' see sufficient selling continue, so that top is over. Check my previous post. But my target lower should achieve according to me. Around 6065-68 is the next top & I feel it's near a major top.
I apologise, I shall be little more careful next time.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| satishkadam wrote: | | vinay28 wrote: | | sold longs again and shorted a bit |
Near SL as per Gautham |
|
| shashangan wrote: | Sorry mkt seeing some buying, but again I feel as per my view there should be heavy selling from 6061-65 region.
You can amend your stop to 6075 if you want to hold or keep it naked if you have back up without stop. It's your decision.
I could be wrong though.
Gautham Shashangan |
| shashangan wrote: | Hmm, you may be right, but my gut feeling I am going with my strategy.
This was my target to sell at the 1st time anyway, so i have sold, I am holding 2 mini shorts now, if it opens higher I will decide & short one more, if i feel it doesn't look risky.
Like you bought at low close on Friday I am shorting @ high close today & that too a new high in future. I didnt want to miss a sell @ 6065, since that was part of my actual strategy. Well there is risk, but that's how mkt is.
Like I had mentioned, they could try breaking the high once to trap the people who went short till Friday & holding. Most of the shorts would have panicked & cut their positions & reversed to long above 6045. So that's the picture I am still believing. & they did confuse me in picking the 6045 top & went to break the highs. So it's a psychological possibility to trigger shorts to bail them out & turn them to long. And hitting the 6065 target near closing so nobody would take a short position at closing. Hoping I will not go wrong. we will see.
Gautham Shashangan
| vinay28 wrote: | | I think 6077NF is possible |
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #693 Posted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:34 pm Post subject: |
|
|
20 years (1992-2012) - Jan & Feb - Monthly OHLC - Nifty spot.
Gautham Shashangan
| sw_das wrote: | Can you check this, what is the probability of a correction combining January, February.? It may be interesting to know.
Though history is one thing and current situation might be another one!
regards |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #694 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Have been busy with work.
Jan - 6049-45 levels may see some intra day buy orders placed for a small up move.
It may hold this for some time
Regards,
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #695 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 3:38 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Since I have been bearish I have been giving only sell calls continuously. Though I take risks, I was a bit tensed when mkt made the 6095 high, so held back myself to give any short calls.
For a moment with yesterday's close I was wondering will it run off. I dont mind my loss, but didnt' want to trap others who would blindly take the entry on my call. But anyway even though I was so bearish, I am holding only one mini myself, Though I thought will have 3-4 minis.
Anyway I am still not very convinced, so will wait for mkt to come down little more before I give my further view.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| shashangan wrote: | JAN 14th - Hmm, you may be right, but my gut feeling I am going with my strategy.
This was my target to sell at the 1st time anyway, so i have sold, I am holding 2 mini shorts now, if it opens higher I will decide & short one more, if i feel it doesn't look risky.
Like you bought at low close on Friday I am shorting @ high close today & that too a new high in future. I didnt want to miss a sell @ 6065, since that was part of my actual strategy. Well there is risk, but that's how mkt is.
Like I had mentioned, they could try breaking the high once to trap the people who went short till Friday & holding. Most of the shorts would have panicked & cut their positions & reversed to long above 6045. So that's the picture I am still believing. & they did confuse me in picking the 6045 top & went to break the highs. So it's a psychological possibility to trigger shorts to bail them out & turn them to long. And hitting the 6065 target near closing so nobody would take a short position at closing. Hoping I will not go wrong. we will see.
Gautham Shashangan
| shashangan wrote: | I have another sell order for mini @ 6065.80. I am feeling it's a good sell.
But I may be wrong.
Gautham Shashangan |
| shashangan wrote: | Mkt view on JAN 11 - Around 5973-70, intra day & short term players buy orders should be placed to cover shorts for the weekend.
But dont know if the punters would want to close it much below.
If anybody short you can partially cover to avoid weekend tension.
Gautham Shashangan |
| shashangan wrote: | Mkt view on JAN 9 Though I want to restrain from giving my full view, I thought let me share it, in case I get it right, it could help you plan your trade.
Jan - If there is an up move to go back to highs, it should come from 5975 region. I feel even if it goes back it will see selling again. It may not break previous high mostly, even if it goes up. 6046-51 could be the highs & if extended it may go to 6065-70 max not beyond. There is a small possibility they can make one sharp move to confuse, not necessary, but we should be prepared, since they would nt want to give a easy ride.
If Bear resumes 5955 is the immediate target. Below 5942 stops will trigger to take it to 5905 around instantly. Though again early, guess it could possibly see some correction from here (5905 region) to 5960 min. & then a down turn to 5870.
It's an approximate picture. I could be wrong. Just taking a wild guess.
Medium term a weekly close or a sharp break below 5850 there will be heavy selling targeting 5795-75 region followed by 5700-5695 region if extended, where the trend can end.
Any sharp move or a weekly close near or above 6100 can change my view, but it's unlikely. Or any deviation from my view, i shall change this view give my new outlook in the coming days. I repeat it's a approximate picture, I can be wrong.
Good luck, Play cautiously.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| shashangan wrote: | (View given on 3rd Jan) My older long & medium term view got slightly affected due to the unfortunate bull close for the Dec month.
I had to re-do all the extensions & adjustments. To begin with the mkt has been struggling to reverse to bear so far. Only small intra day tops I am able to pick, but no sharp reversal or fall has happened yet.
Anyway I feel mkt is possibly reaching a short term top if not medium term. It can be anytime from tomorrow through to next week. I definitely see one more high for sure. NF should see a top anywhere near 6065-70. If there is an extension it may go to 6080-85 max, not beyond as of now.
You will see min 6020 for sure on the lows if anybody is holding positional shorts, but you should also be prepared for the new high.
NF Range for mkt till Tuesday 6080-5990. (NS- 6035-5965)
The mkt may again go into my old targets which I mentioned last month on the lower side. It may not go so deep like I mentioned, probably 5845-40 area for sure, but it's still early for that, so shall wait to confirm that outlook for now.
People who have 100-200 points risking capability can short from around 6065. It could be good catch for a handful. I shall update in the day of the exact top unless if I am not there.
I need to re-look my view only if there is a sharp rally & if mkt closes right at the high like 6100 or above, which I feel unlikely as of now.
It's an approximate guess, based on my analysis. So kindly do your analysis, I can go totally wrong on my readings.
Regards,
Gautham Shashangan |
|
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
saumya12
Brown Belt
Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 1509
|
| Post: #696 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 5:00 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi Gautham
I think you should not blame yourself if market moves opposite to your views/technical analysis.
When you mention these words
"It's an approximate guess, based on my analysis. So kindly do your analysis, I can go totally wrong on my readings."
No one should blame you either.
In your opinion, how much more, nifty future can come down. What could be the real support. Please provide further analysis
Thanks |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
pkholla
Black Belt
Joined: 04 Nov 2010
Posts: 2890
|
| Post: #697 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:50 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Hi Shashangan,
Agree with Saumya. People should do their independent check and invest. Continue with your great posts and less of the hesitation, self- doubt etc please! That you are posting in spite of tight work schedule is great!
No one is right more than 60% of the time. Tight money management and SL are needed to serve to maximise our profits.
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
skd2012
Yellow Belt
Joined: 03 Oct 2012
Posts: 948
|
| Post: #698 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| shashangan wrote: | 20 years (1992-2012) - Jan & Feb - Monthly OHLC - Nifty spot.
Gautham Shashangan
| sw_das wrote: | Can you check this, what is the probability of a correction combining January, February.? It may be interesting to know.
Though history is one thing and current situation might be another one!
regards |
|
Thank you Gautham. I read somewhere out of last 10 years, except 2006, every time we made a top either in January or February (combining both months, probability goes up). Let's see what happens this year. Though market is different every time. Cheers! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #699 Posted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Thanks Prakash & Saumya,
I agree with you, but it's not that I am worried of posting or going wrong. The mkt was a bit dicey & I also got a doubt if mkt will take a rally to 6200 or above directly.
I know nobody can blame me if they make losses from my calls. It's that I didn't want anybody to make losses by taking entries on my calls.
I just thought when I am myself in doubt, should not give hope to others on a reverse trend.
Anyway I am still in doubt, since mkt extended a little more than my projection on the highs.
There is a possibility Jan can try around min. 6035 again.
6052-55 is the next important level to watch.
Another sharp break above 6076-78 is bad & possibly mkt can reverse to bullish for sometime.
The mkt needs to get below min 5990 to get some bearish momentum. For now I shall remain neutral.
The friday's close also will give a better picture. A bull close for the week is also bad for Nifty bears.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| pkholla wrote: | Hi Shashangan,
Agree with Saumya. People should do their independent check and invest. Continue with your great posts and less of the hesitation, self- doubt etc please! That you are posting in spite of tight work schedule is great!
No one is right more than 60% of the time. Tight money management and SL are needed to serve to maximise our profits.
Cheers, Prakash Holla |
| saumya12 wrote: | Hi Gautham
I think you should not blame yourself if market moves opposite to your views/technical analysis.
When you mention these words
"It's an approximate guess, based on my analysis. So kindly do your analysis, I can go totally wrong on my readings."
No one should blame you either.
In your opinion, how much more, nifty future can come down. What could be the real support. Please provide further analysis
Thanks |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #700 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 9:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
You are right das, I shall post something more in detail soon. It will be more interesting. Its all in crude form on my pc. Need to find it & do some changes to it.
Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
| sw_das wrote: |
Thank you Gautham. I read somewhere out of last 10 years, except 2006, every time we made a top either in January or February (combining both months, probability goes up). Let's see what happens this year. Though market is different every time. Cheers! |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #701 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 9:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
NF opening around 6025.
Near Opening Range 6039 -6007
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #702 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 9:58 am Post subject: |
|
|
There should be some profit booking @ 6037-39 in Jan for a correction to 6025 area min.
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #703 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
The mkt may hold below 6028 for sometime if i am not wrong.
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #704 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Strictly Intra day- Can be little risky
Place an order to short Jan @ 6043-45 stop 6061. Target Open
Gautham Shashangan |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
shashangan
Green Belt
Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore
|
| Post: #705 Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 1:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Place an order to partially cover your short @ 6029-27 & move your stop to cost for the rest.
Gautham Shashangan
| shashangan wrote: | Strictly Intra day- Can be little risky
Place an order to short Jan @ 6043-45 stop 6061. Target Open
Gautham Shashangan |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
You cannot attach files in this forum
You cannot download files in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
