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Nifty Analysis
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Author Nifty Analysis
shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #781   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not really, it will give a little influence for the overnight move of Nifty, since it has minimum one more New high pending for near term.

I always trade the overall trend & I have given my overall view quite sometime back for Nifty. I was continuously shorting or holding short till mid of Feb.

Now I will continuously be holding Long till my target is achieved or till there is a deviation from my view.

I am not able to read the intra day move clearly at the moment. But I did mention at the open mkt could be down to sideways for sometime

I have a feeling mkt may be quiet till noon & there can be surge in the afternoon, if not tomorrow being friday they may keep it for tomorrow.

I will update If I get a clear indication later anyway.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #782   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Infact, I feel Nifty possibly can close at a new high 5855-60 region minimum, before a correction possibly tomorrow.

But it's little early, so I was holding back to give a view which I am not quite sure. I am also stuck with some office work, so unable to dig deep into it to confirm

I have given my view anyway, so let's see if it will come right.

Kindly do your analysis, I can be wrong.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #783   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only issue is we are all humans & we are tempted to say what we feel, in case it comes right. But I have been trying hard to control my impulses & give only calls which I am confident, even if many times what I feel may come right, it's ok.

I have long past the stage of feeling a hero. I am in a stage practicing to be a perfectionist than being a hero for sometime & a few wrong call can take away the trust of people on you.

Something mkt has taught me is patience & how to control impulses, though when you start watching mkt you keep getting carried away. I keep telling myself I should not gamble or put others in trouble.

Because once you put others in trouble, to get them out of the mess, the mind you require is even more dangerous, because you have emotions involved, since you will be trying to prove you are not a villain then.

Anyway, being a trainer I can also become a little philosophical at times. Dont bother. Let's see what happens.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #784   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mkt possibly has bottomed, If i am not wrong. Hope the up move starts from here.

I am not closely watching though. Stuck with some work at office.

Regards
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #785   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Booked my intra day long @ 5838.40. Will replace it again lower if i get.

I am still holding one future & 2 call option long.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
Bought back one March Nifty @ 5823.60. May be slightly down to side ways for some time.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #786   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also booked but I have gone short a bit. What's your upper target?
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #787   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure at the moment. But it's still not topped out.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
Infact, I feel Nifty possibly can close at a new high 5855-60 region minimum, before a correction possibly tomorrow.

But it's little early, so I was holding back to give a view which I am not quite sure. I am also stuck with some office work, so unable to dig deep into it to confirm

I have given my view anyway, so let's see if it will come right.

Kindly do your analysis, I can be wrong.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
Green Belt


Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #788   PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just was having a look at Dow chart. Thought will share

Short term there can be a correction. But somehow overall Dow to me looks like a long term break out targeting min 15100+. It looks dangerously bullish, I am wondering will it target 18k

Nasdaq on the other hand is not showing any clear signs on the chart. I can see near term it possibly might struggle to sustain a rally after every new high. So expect profit booking correction on New highs.

Anyway I dont track Dow or Nasdaq very closely.

Thanks & Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #789   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

when mkt was falling & was around 5700, I think very few people would have expected a move like this.

I took my entries a little early, but It's ok. I was patient & didn't panic, not because I was holding my entry on hope. It's only because I was confident this move would follow. Anyway Patience & discipline pays.

For now the mkt will give some relief for shorts to breathe, Though mkt is still bullish & still can make intraday new highs, I think sharp up moves for sometime may not happen from here.

There could possibly be profit booking on new intra day highs from here till noon. (Possible Intra day Range March - 5904 - 5935).

Good Luck
Gautham Shashangan
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shashangan
Green Belt
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #790   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Booked my Long March @ 5951.90
Booked my 6100 March Call @ 16.40

Shall replace lower if i get.

Now holding only one 6200 Call of April.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan

shashangan wrote:
Bought back one March Nifty @ 5847.60.

I dont want to give any calls, because there is news & since I won't be there for a week, So if you are confident go ahead.

I want to stay long at least one contract for my long term target.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan


shashangan wrote:
Was Holding 2 Longs @ 5821.10 & 5824.20

Sold both my Longs @ 5864.90

Sold my March 6100 call @ 22.90

Now holding only one 6200 call of April

Shall buy back again a little lower.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan


shashangan wrote:
You can Place an order to Buy March Nifty between 5772-68 & March 6100 Call @ 7.50 & below.

Good luck
Gautham Shashangan


Last edited by shashangan on Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #791   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gone short @ 5953.40 with STop 5973

Have made some good profit. So couldn't resist my impulse to short, was tempting so let's see, it's a small gamble.

I am guessing it's made top & possibly could be the high for the day. May not be mostly, but there is a small possibility of breaking high just once more, just a small trigger, dont see rally. I can be wrong, Let's see

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan


Last edited by shashangan on Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:36 pm; edited 4 times in total
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vinay28
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Joined: 24 Dec 2010
Posts: 11748

Post: #792   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what's your target gautham ondownside next week and do you expect still higher levels in march? I feel next week will be very volatile big downside moves.
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #793   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the way the mkt has moved up it has wiped out lot of short term & intra day shorts from the mkt. The weekly closing is very strong & is Engulfing.

A correction can be expected to 5910 region March possibly by Monday & it may take off again very strongly by wednesday, hopefully. Still early, let's see, will update when it's little more clear.

I expect a correction for Dow & Nasdaq soon possibly Monday, since it is nearing a short term top.

Thanks
Gautham Shashangan


Last edited by shashangan on Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:02 pm; edited 3 times in total
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #794   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One single candle has covered previous 3 weeks movement.

shashangan wrote:
View on 25th Feb - I am not sure about the movements on budget news. The next few moves can be erratic. They can try to trap both short & long Intra day players to make a good Tandoori fry of them.

Though my targets are little lower, technically according to me it's indicating very near bottom & reversal any moment. It's possibly going to take a turn for a massive run up to 6165 / 6200 area by April.

It's better not to carry shorts overnight from here. Better to wait for down move & Buy on dips & hold on to Longs patiently. But Play with discipline, play minimum. Dont panic on dips, it will recover & 5970-85 area would be the first target non stop on reversal. You can also buy 6100 & 6200 calls when its falling & near support, if you want to play my game. Also I would buy any gap down opening at the opening Bell. (New Low).

But again it's my view, do your own analysis, I can be wrong too.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan


Last edited by shashangan on Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:45 pm; edited 2 times in total
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shashangan
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Joined: 12 Jun 2007
Posts: 1321
Location: Bangalore

Post: #795   PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i have closed all my positions for the week end.

It has been a great week for me. Thanks Nifty.

I closed my 6200 call @ 31.90, since time value reduces. I will replace both my Call options on Monday again.

Enjoy your weekend.

Regards,
Gautham Shashangan
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