iCharts Discussions

[hdobhal]

Dear Sandeep,

Thanks for putting your post here. I agree with all your points that all traders must note. I will add just one thing here - The move to 4550 thereabout I was also expecting as it is at 13 min EMA on hourly chart. But, today it could not come. May be tom we can see Nifty touching that level, which coincides with yours also, and then falling.

Thanks

Harish Dobhal

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Today there is a clear divergence in MACD histogram in real time chart of Nifty and for many stocks and it is vulnerable for a strong upmove. Nifty to become weak, it should close below 4400. Till date Nifty futures is refusing to close below January low. Secondly after breaking and closing below long term trendline of 4550, once gain it closed above that for three consequetive sessions.


My view is until it closes below 4400, BEARS need to be very careful.


Good effort and work by your team, including Mr vivek and Mr Sanmen.

Keep it up.


Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear Rameshraja Sir,

Thanks for the post sir. Its really very heartening to see you writing and informing us of important directional movements.

Sir, I agree with the divergence on MACD but for me there is a clear signal of a larger Bear Market. I'm convinced about Nifty to go further down as a lot of things including the breach of Long Term trend Line etc are indicating. The following things are making me think this -

1. Nifty is trading below the Long Term Trend Line and finding resistance going up.

2. Nifty is clearly not able to sustain any upmove for some time.

3. The weekly chart of Nifty shows a H&S pattern and neckline broken and Nifty finding it tough to go above it.

Sir, The Jan low has been broken for spot and in fact it was broken long time back for sensex (15300). The significance of the Jan low is certainly there for Nifty Future, but eventually it will also break if conditions are not improved soon.

Moreover, there is no divergence on fundamental basis. There is no good news expected that can push Nifty to a new uptrend which can negate the current Bear Market. Do you really think Left will say - ok, go ahead with the nuke deal? OR suddenly the food and commodity prices dropping?

So, all in all, I am convinced this Bear Market will continue for medium term at least.

Having said all that, I do believe in Market being supreme and can surprise all. So, will keep a close eye on developments and see where it goes.

Sir, I request you to continue posting here. Your guidance is of the value for which there is no parallel.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[ramtrade]

Hi Sandeep,

Markets are the first ones to predict the future. Markets discount the future earnings/problems etc....it has surprised me many times about the market rise when the bad news has been announced. I guess that's the last to happen....coming into public. Retail investors are the last ones to know...when retail investors try to short on bad news...surprise...markets rise...this is how retail investors have been losing shirts since ages...only few make money in the market...the few are the powerful and rich.

Coming back to our markets...they have been discounting the -ve news for quite some time now....markets dont discount on the announcement of inflation no.s or IPP no.s or crude prices......there's whole bunch of people who analyse and try predicting the future situations...it's a collective wisdom.

What remains to be seen how much more -ve news are we still left with....

Thanks
Ramesh

[marne.vivek]

hi sandeep,

thanks for your words, really appreciate man, but as u know even i am student.

plus icharts has been a gr8 place for me to learn and as helped me get new friends. Its gr8 to have met so many people here. Plus mayur, swaroop, santosh and rocky has given my work more perspective by introducing me to Elliott Wave Theory.

It comes as a real happiness that RR Sir has posted his appreciation for our work.

Thats a gr8 encouragement.

Will try to keep the standards up.

Regards

[marne.vivek]

hi sandeep / harish,

thanks for your words, really appreciate man, but as u know even i am student.

Plus icharts has been a gr8 place for me to learn and as helped me get new friends. Plus mayur, swaroop, santosh and rocky has given my work more perspective by introducing me to Elliott Wave Theory.

It comes as a real happiness that RR Sir has posted his appreciation for our work.

Thats a gr8 encouragement.

Will try to keep the standards up.

Regards

[marne.vivek]

yesterday and today was a good crash.

We consolidated today, if that is the right word to use.

Today in 5 min candlestick charts, i am seeing an Inverted H & S though not very powerful (which is as attached hereunder), but at the same i donot want to force myself in to seeing something that may not be there. Cause i am not seeing a basic higher top and higher bottom formation to mark a limited up move, which i don't think would be not be more than 4679, since we are in wave C 4, presuming that we have not yet entered in Wave C5.

Under yesterday's post i had tried to give wave count where Wave A of Wave C4 ended, continuing with that i give further wave count for wave B in wave C4.

Data used: 15 Min candle sticks
Purple band: Bollinger Band
50 SMA : Light Blue Thick Line
200 SMA: Black line


Wave (a) in wave C-4-B ended at point 18-6-08 13.45 at point 4595.
Wave (b) in Wave C-4-B which should ideally retrace 23.60% ended at 18-6-08 14.30 candle , opening at 4613.50, which apparently is 2.6% retracement of wave a in wave C-4-B and marking a high of 4617.

From where we commenced wave c in wave C-4-B, which should be equivalent to lenght of wave (a), which would be 4539, been the ideal target of wave (c) in wave C-4-B. But it got extended considering the fact that markets are markets so that be it.

Now the inverted H & S that i see, should mark the beginning of wave (C) in C4, which i donot expect to cross more than 4674, may contain triangle or sideway movement, which can make nifty drift sideways and then push to start of wave C-5.

Elliottians on icharts, pls correct me if i am wrong.

Regards
Vivek



Disclaimer: This is my analysis of nifty based on certain parameters, and author does not hold any responsiblity for the profit / loss.

[hdobhal]

good observation Marne

Keep it up...

Thanks
Harish

[gudd007]

[marne.vivek]

thanks gudd007 sir for pointing out.

anyways, i realized my analysis sucked big time and nothing worked out..

will be careful henceforth

regards

Vivek

[marne.vivek]

Hi all,

Now coming back back to Nifty Analysis (based on working by me and prasad rajamane)

We put forth the nifty wave count from start that is from start of wave 1 till date for consideration.

Further, in chart two we present that we are not in pattern B or C.

We are still in Intermediate Wave A. We completed Intermediate wave 5 on 8th jan at high of 6357, from where we started the move to Intermediate Wave A

Based on our knowledge, we consider need to make 5 waves to complete wave A. Of which we have completed 4 waves and from 18 june 2008 entered into wave 5 (these are marked on the chart).
We expect nifty to make bottom at 4164 to 4194, in next two days and mark completion of Intermediate wave A, from where it can start bounce up to wave B and then once that is completed to Wave C.

Elliotticians pls do comment..

Regards
Vivek & Prasad

[marne.vivek]

based on the page from i book, i have tried to plot where we are..

hope its correct

vivek

[gudd007]

[sanmen]

Vivek

Wow!!!!!

This is really an eye opener..so far i was going with the earlier assumption that this is the last leg of correction which was C5 but i am wrong after looking at this port of urs.

So going by this we expect 4160-80 by next few days (dow has been beaten down so may be on monday..who knows)..then the start of Wave AB so an upmove which should be till 4350-4400 thereabouts marking the end of Minor wave A and so on...I am not sure on how to consider the time factor here as Rocky was explaining the other day..here Gann and further EW analysis should come into play which can be contributed by people like Mayur/Rocky/Swaroop etc..

Gr8 work Vivek as always..its fantastic..keep up man..

But i am sad as well..closed my shorts on friday itself..and am not sure whether monday i will get an opportunity on Monday to do so

Take care

Sandeep

[ramtrade]

Hi,

I am not a very strong believer of elliot wave. But the discussion in the forum and passion of the few strong believers aroused enough interest in me to look at this from my perspective. Presenting the chart from my perspective. Now i would invite the expert comments of the ellioticians.

Thanks
Ramesh