iCharts Discussions

[gudd007]

I would say let us talk about waves or talk about bull and bear markets, but let us not pass through the looking glass and talk Bull****. Bull and bear markets were defined before Elliott knew what a stock market was.

[mbh]

Hd and the team who have been posting regularly in this thread I must say very good work!!! I am also a learner like you and do my bit in my blog. Its good to see you people concentrating on the trend lines, I myself prefer them in my analysis. They are the only linear things in this non linear market..a bit of a irony here! Keep up the good work and happy drawing LINES!!!!

[kiran.jain]

hello every one........

i cant express in words how much u guys have given me...... m just student so don't feel comfortable i writing my views....... but its my pleasure 2 read ur views.....

thnks
happy trading


regards,
kiran jain

[hdobhal]

Dear matrixvipin,

thanks from the core of my heart for encouragement...

Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

So I am here after a few days, again ANALYZING the situation of markets and posting my ANALYSIS on Nifty.

There are tigers and there are paper tigers. It doesn't matter if one is not tiger (as I think I am NOT) but it DOES matter when paper tigers roar. Why does it matter? it matters as their roar is actually coming from pit and feels like a cry rather than roar. Why I say this? well, read below:

There are two types of animals that are talked about in Stock Market discussion - namely - bulls and bears. We all know what they mean. One of these animals rules some times and the other is forced to lose. BUT there is one more animal - the paper tiger. This is associated with one who is caught on the wrong side of the trend !!! For example - a bull in a bear market is NOT A BULL, but a PAPER TIGER. Same for the other way round. Why do I mention this philosophy? well, I did it because I want to make it clear to one and all that RESPECT THE TREND or you will become a paper tiger.

Today Nifty made a new low and closed almost at lows (although the adjusted quote is way over LTP). For me it was a vindication of my belief in economics as I had been requesting people to avoid investing in markets as I felt it was going to be tough year for economy and market. Those who brushed me aside paid heavily in Jan and now.

For Ichart members, I request to download Shoutbox Archive of 27th May 2008, and see what I said that night.

The time for bulls is not really here, and if one is an obstinate bull, then better be called a paper tiger. In one of my analysis here, I warned people here to not trust bear market rallies, as they are fierce and fade out very quickly. On 17th June I did my best and even shouted my heart out in Shout Box to refrain from longs and better start short, many people laughed their heart out, but the very next day onwards, it fell heavily on bulls who were living in false hopes. My friend Marne.Vivek also posted here the same day the Fibo retracement chart to show that the pullback to the upside in the larger bear market may be over. BUT, only those who have hard earned money and sense to trade obliged.

The conclusion of my post is DON'T shrug off TA. TA is a tool not for forecasting but to be disciplined. Going by TA makes you disciplined and thus your losses are limited even if you made a mistake.

DON'T Trust the PAPER TIGERS, if you do, then you are the biggest enemy of yourself.

Clarification: By above line I don't imply in any way that you should trust me. In fact, I urge you to take your decisions based on your own hard work and treat my analysis as a help to your own one. Nobody is GOD in trading and its your money which is at stake. So, the bottomline is use your brain. I will be more than happy to see if my analysis can be of any help to anybody.

Thanks & Best Regards

Harish Dobhal

[mgowthamjain]

Good one harish ! keep it up

[ramtrade]

http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20080624/836/tbs-bids-invited-for-consultancy-on-expr.html

http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/23224534/NAL-to-build-India8217s-fas.html

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/India-unlimited/326573/0

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/blnus/15231111.htm

Thanks
Ramesh

[hdobhal]

MGO sir,

Thanks for the reply. Its good when seniors like you encourage. But I am not happy the way you have neglected this thread sir. I expected you to post your comments regularly.

Sir, without your analysis and comments it is incomplete.

Hope you will post it now

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[ramtrade]

24th June data...

BUY SELL
No. of contracts Amt in CR No. of contr Amt in CR
INDEX FUTURES 252267 5354.79 287672 6069.46
INDEX OPTIONS 54825 1145.16 73900 1570.50
STOCK FUTURES 221167 4100.34 216764 4039.48
STOCK OPTIONS 0 0.00 208 7.01

[ramtrade]

1. http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20080625/836/tbs-maharashtra-to-build-mumbai-trans-ha.html
2. http://in.news.yahoo.com/20/20080625/1425/tbs-india-clinches-first-foreign-deal-wi.html

Thanks
Ramesh

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends

We had a two day good upmove in Nifty and it managed to give some life to downtrodden bulls. Today, I will analyze Daily as well as Hourly chart of Nifty (It looks very attractive ). Following is my analysis of Nifty Daily first:

As we can see in the chart (Nifty 26 June.png), the Bear Market that started in Jan is still going on (Line 1) and there seems to be little chance for bulls to get over it. Even the secondary Downtrend line (Line 2 - in red colour) is looking too far away. Lot of things happened this month, the most important was the break of Jan low and break of trend line drawn from Jan low (Line 5). The fundamentals of our economy are weakening and to add to the chaos, there are political uncertainties.

If we see closely, there are three resistance areas for any upmove. The first is Line 3 which is around today's high. If Nifty fails to cross this line, then we can see a fresh selloff starting tomorrow itself !!!
The second resistance is at Line 5. The level comes around 4540 !!! This means if Nifty manages to go up from today's close, there are good chances for it to touch 4500 - 4550 levels.
The next and big resistance for Nifty is at the RED line - Line 2. One thing to notice is - the 34 EMA also falls nearby. The level comes at around 4600.

I deliberately did not speak about Line 1 - the main downtrend line. This is because it is too far away and I don't find any catalyst in the near term which can make Nifty move so far up side. However, for the sake of level, it comes at around 4800. Interestingly Nifty will face 50 DMA before facing Line 1, so chances are more than remote for that to happen.

By reading the above you can have the idea of how severe this Bear Trend is. Even by moving up to as much as 4800 will not end this Bear Market.

THE HOURLY CHART

As we see the hourly chart of Nifty, there is a rising channel or what some people call flag formation. This is bearish flag as it is in a larger downtrend.

The big resistance in hourly chart is also surprisingly coinciding with that on the Daily chart !!! around 4500 - 4550 levels. However, we should note it that its not necessary to reach the biggest resistance and then fall, I am more inclined towards the break of the rising channel.

I hope my post will be useful for readers.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[ramtrade]

Harish,

Very simple and nicely presented. I guess it would be a good idea if you can post something on managing positions with respect to your analysis for the benefit of your post followers.

Unless one does not know how to do the money and risk management, i guess it would be difficult to make money in the markets.

Thanks
Ramesh

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish

good one.I also told in RR sir trading room today that 4550-

4600 maximum will be top.if only if two closing above 4700 i will think of

Buying.Again i like ur conviction and confidence and best of luck to u bearssssssssssssss cheersssssssss

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramtrade,

Thanks. sure I will write about money management some time.

Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear MGO Sir,

First my thanks for the reply. I know you must have noticed it during the trading time. Thanks for the encouragement sir. Pls keep on posting and replying here.

Harish