iCharts Discussions

[prasad_rajmane]

Hello Friends!!!

Nifty on June 27, 2008 will be 4356

Prasad

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends,

I am not posting any analysis here today...

What I am going to post here is my ultimate target of Nifty - I think the final support for Nifty is at 2907. Kindly note this number and see when it comes.

To clarify the issue, Please don't think this to come next month or even next year. It can come, but I am not for any time target for this number. I think and strongly think that this number is the final support that Nifty will get. The day I see Nifty reaching 200 points from this number, I will start buying with all good stocks for investment as well as trading.

Their are sound technical reasons for this number but at this juncture, I don't think I should post the reasons for it. Feel free to think that this number I have posted for the sole purpose of being on record.

For tom, I think one should buy for intraday pullback if Nifty opens Gap Down. There are good chances it will give a good bounce back.

Thanks & Regards
Harish Dobhal

[rocky5iitr]

Quite possible but seems unlikely

[Guide]

There are occasions when one feels highly depressed due to the failure of one's ventures for which one had taken huge loans and due to failure, is unable to repay the debts.
This blog is for those who got depressed and find no way to get out of their present state of mind.
There are several ways to get rid of one's debts, but when one has tried all one's efforts and find no solution, there comes the divine help. there are several MANTRAS AND YANTRAS in Indian literature which if practiced with faith will bring the good results. Here those Mantras & Tantras will be written for the benefit of readers.

<< LINK REMOVED >>

***** MESSAGE BY ADMIN *****

Guide,

I HAD MOVED YOUR EARLIER POST TO THE "Chit Chat" forum. I would suggest you keep such posts in that forum only. Please do not post unrelated content in this forum.

This thread was started by someone else so you can only comment on that topic, you can't post completely unrelated message here.

Also, do not advertise your blogs here.

-- ADMIN

[hdobhal]

Dear Guide,

As Admin told in clear words, I also request you to not post anything unrelated to the topic going on, that consumes unnecessary page space and also distracts people who are following this thread seriously.

It will be great on your part to refrain from posting such unrelated things here.

Thanks & Special Regards

Harish Dobhal

[hdobhal]

Dear friends,

Today I post my analysis on Nifty based on the chart (eod) as on 1st July, 2007. As we see Nifty has taken most people by surprise in the past few days. I admit I am also one of the surprised fellows, despite having a bearish view!!!

Looking at chart, I have drawn a lot of trend lines, some of which you are already familiar with. I've deliberately kept only one indicator - OBV and avoided many popular ones like RSI, MACD, STOCH etc. The reason for this is that the oscillators are not best indicators in TRENDING markets and should be given due importance in mostly sideways markets.

The OBV (On Balance Volume) is clearly trending downwards. For those who are not very familiar with OBV, I must remind that its not a simple volume graph but it incorporates a mathematically calculated balance of volume with respect to the direction. So, please do not mistake it for "Falling Volume".

As the chart shows, there are five potential areas of resistance according to trend lines. I have put "UP ARROWS" just below them. In my opinion, the most difficult are No. 2 and No. 4 (which is also meeting point of Line 3 and Line 5). As it is clear, the biggest resistance will be No. 5, as it is at the most significant Downtrend Line - Line 5.

The interesting line is Line 7. This is the line which was in my mind when I was expecting 3800 on Nifty. In coming sessions, this line is last hope for any intermediate relief for bulls.

Those looking for starting fresh long to cash in the "correction" should look at Line 7 and any break in the OBV Downtrend. I am sure OBV will give first signal for any halt in the ongoing carnage.

Dear Friends, I have some fundamental views also, but going into detail might ruin the purpose of posting Technical Analysis. So, I save that for tomorrow and for the time being want to tell one important thing -

As many people are confidant of one thing - "the day Left withdraws support from Govt, will be last day for Bears", I think That will be a temporary relief and a very short lived one. May be there is no relief at all then. All fellows, kindly remember these words - don't get trapped into the theory "left says down and bottom found".

There will be pain and more pain, so sell at highs or resistances is going to be the rule for some good time.

Thanks & Best Regards

Harish Dobhal

[rameshraja]

Hello Mr Harish

Very good Analysis, goes without saying. I am developing cold feet for the last two days, as to whomsoever I talk about market they are talking about bottomingout at around 3500 or when Left withdraws support to present Govt. . I also held the same view for the last few days, but now feeling uncomfortable with my own opinion as too many participants in market converge to my view.


It could be a nasty blow to many if Nifty doesn't take support around 3450 -3500.

Regards

C T RAMESH RAJA

[hdobhal]

Dear RR sir,

Yes sir, too many and in fact almost everyone is of the view that bottom will be when Left withdraws support, that means there will be surprise then. Also, even if a temp bottom is there, it will not take much time to restart downtrend.
The only thing that can prove me wrong is If Nifty already falls too much - in real sense truly oversold before that.

Let's see sir, how things pan out

Harish

[vetrivel]

Dear Harish,

Very good analysis. your good work is appreciated. As RR sir commented, there appears to be views from every nook & corner, Which warns us to be more cautious. And I have refrained from positional plays for quite few weeks and become a serious jobber now.

A small word of caution while using the OBV: Following OBV Trend could be wrong at times , it is better to be viewed as a support technical tool. hope you will not mind if I add here few interesting facts about OBV .

On balance volume varies as per the chart type you choose . (for example if you see OBV of Reliance Daily chart in 3 months period it is 185.2 , where as for the same 3 months period in weekly chart it is 313.9 -- For both charts base is for a period of two years as per charts -PREMIUM)

You will notice that the weekly chart OBV has crossed above the "falling trend line" and sustaining above, and also made a Higher - "LOW". whereas, the daily chart though breached above "falling trend-line" it does NOT sustain above.

This variation is due to the simple fact that ,, the TYPE of CANDLE is taken into consideration while calculating the OBV.

(which means if a scrip closes at Rs. 100/- on 01st july and on 2nd july if it opens at Rs. 90/- and closes at Rs. 95/- this being a WHITE candle, the 2nd JULY volume is ADDED to the OBV thus showing an upward curve in OBV graph, whereas the stock has actually fallen to 95 from 100.

BEST chart to understand this factor is "Venkeys", take out venkeys one year Chart and see the OBV graph . how nicely raising OBV , while the stock continues to Tank.

Happy Trading
With Love & Regards,
Vetrivel

[hdobhal]

Dear Vetri Sir,

Thanks for the reply sir. Your insight into OBV is very interesting and I hope I will learn a thing or two from it

Please keep on reading and replying sir.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

So finally the bulls had something to cheer about today Well, as always, I am posting my analysis of Nifty here, first I will go through the hourly chart.

I have drawn two trend lines Line 1 and Line 2. As we can see Line 1 is the current resistance line and Line 2 is the previous resistance line, which, after breaking has acted as support yest and today.

So, going by it, the resistance on hourly chart is at about 4120 area. Breaking it will be a signal for further upmove. Also, the 61.8% retracement of latest downswing is at 4141. So going by it, 4120 to 4150 can be good resistance for Nifty.

I will be very soon updating this post with Daily chart.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish

i fully agreed with ur levels


i feel nf levels for 2morow will be 4140-4190

And these pullbacks always good for Bears to go short at higher levels !


Cheersssssssss Bearssssssssss

[hdobhal]

MGO Sir,

Thanks.

Cheerssssssssssssssss Bearsssssssssssssssss

Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

As I promised, here is my today's Nifty Analysis based on EOD chart. Today there was a run away kind of up move which is quite characteristic of BEAR MARKET RALLY. Before analyzing the chart, I want to give a word of caution for those who think the tide has turned. The reason is - such fierce and sharp up moves are very well known in Bear Markets. If it were a consolidated move, only then one could think about it.

Looking at daily chart, it looks Nifty today has taken support at Line 4, which is a Line I drew joining the high of 27th Feb and 28th March. By definition it qualifies to be a trend line merely on the basis that it got resisted again on 2nd April.

The immediate resistance comes at Line 6, which is the latest and steepest downtrend line. Looking for tomorrow, the level comes to around 4130-40. Amazingly, this is almost same as that presented on hourly chart.

If Nifty ANYHOW manages to cross this hurdle of 4120-50, then the next resistance comes at Line 3. This is the downtrend line which is comfortable in terms of steepness. The level for that tom is about 4430 thereabout.

Now, let me come to Fibo retracements. If we go by larger downtrend and take the 20th May high and Today's low, then the 38.2% retracement comes at 4354. Taking the nearer downtrend in consideration, the high of 18th Jun and Today's low, the 61.8% retracement comes to 4354 again!!! What a coincidence !!! The 38.2% of this smaller downswing is at 4161. Taking the nearest downswing, High of 26th June and Today's low, the 61.8% retracement comes at 4143, again quite near the 4161 number !!!

So, going by this, the resistance for Nifty are at 4143 - 61 and 4354.

I conclude today's analysis here with the hope that you will reply with your valuable comments.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[eagleseyes]

hi bhai..
Wonderful analysis ... the best way to trade the trend is trendlines,The best way of anticipation is fibo.Both have defined roles and should not be interchanged.You have use them perfectly as they should have been used,Looking forward to a great time with ur charts.

Bhai make this thread so big after passing day that it causes ST sir a headache and make him think to reserve a separate server for this thread. ..just kidding
it was just another way of saying that the thread should contiinue for ever