iCharts Discussions

[rameshraja]

Dear Mr Harish

Very good analysis and I also have the same view that tomorrow Nifty futures should resist around 4140 level. On downside Nifty futures should find support around 4030 level. It will be very difficult for Nifty futures to close above 4115. If closes above 4115, then it has the potential to move to 4470 level.

All bear market rallies are very sharp and it will be short lived. Therefore, one should be very careful in trading long with tight SL.


Best Wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[shareking]

Thank you very much for spending ur precious time just to let the novice traders know the secret of technical analysis.

[hdobhal]

Dear Saurabh,

What a reply !!! well, so much thanks for the encouragement. I wish you also start posting here your view and analysis as per your Ami.

Harish

Dear RR sir,

Once again thanks sir for replying to the post. Sir, with your guidance only I've learnt secret of small things like trend lines.

Harish

Dear Shareking,

Thanks for the reply sir. There is nothing so great in it, I used to read charts and say this and that, then one fine day, Mr Mayuresh (mayurnsk) advised me to post views in Forum, Since then I'm doing it with a renewed passion and thanks to the seniors and fellow ichartians, particularly Mr. Rameshraja (RR Sir) for their encouragement and comments. Not to forget some fellows like Marne.Vivek, Saikatnandy, Sanmen and others who have been also posting their views regularly.

I hope you will also contribute with your view.

Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

I really wanted to put some good observation on inflation and some other fundamental things tonight but other commitments don't look to favour me

However, I will definitely do that very soon.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[sanmen]

Hi Harish

Gr8 analysis presented in a very simplistic and easy to understand manner..no wonder ur thread is the most sought after by all of us.. keep up the gud work and keep writing..

I am also posting 2 charts here for everyones analysis

1) In the first chart i have drawn a few trendlines. The Line 1 is basically the neckline of the H&S pattern that we have discussed earlier as well..very clearly nifty tried testing the neckline but failing to breach it on the upside resulted in the sharp fall that we have witnessed so far..however thats not the end most of beleive...

Nifty did breach the Line 2 which is actually a long term trendline breaking conclusively will result in further slide again..some of us would say that this is already broken around 3900 but nifty has been moving around this level for the past couple of days. Line 3 is also a long term trendline drawn a bit differently and gives a support lower than the Line 2...may be the next stop!!

also to note is fibo levels..50% retracement level of the bull run till jan 08 comes around 3650-30...incidentally Line 3 also coverges around this level as well..gives a bit more confidence in saying that may be this could be the level which would halt this down fall though H&S theory says otherwise..time will only tell

2) The second chart is about EW analysis..We had discussed earlier as well that we are in Wave 3 right now..i have used the Line chart to make it look simpler as candles were not making it easy to mark..thanx to Rocky for hinting at this..according to me, we are in Sub Wave V of 5 of Wave 3..confusing ...i have tried to mark the waves which might make it simpler..this also confirms we have more downside to come..

so whats the level...i dont know..not capable to predict..i invite all seniors to pl contribute and comment here for benefit of all of us..lets help each other guys!!!!

please share ur comments on this..last but not the least....I AM NEW HERE...I MAY BE WRONG AS WELL...

Cheers & Happy Trading!!

Sandeep

[marne.vivek]

good one sandeep



even i am of the same opinion

[rocky5iitr]

the recent fall which u termed as i,ii,iii,iv .In this iii which you have marked canbe iii(i) but not iii.enjoy the fall

[shareking]

The recent down trend line is too steep so i think the down trend shall continue after a short pullup rally,further the Dii seem to be interested in buying and lot of panic buy is expected from the public adding the strength of Diis.some experts say that public together with Diis can even beat the Fiis so this is the time to be cautious and watch the market from away. sanmen

[sanmen]

rocky boss...i am honoured that u have replied to my post here..thanx a ton..shall change and keep a track..thanx once again

Vivek: thanx man..as always..

Shareking sir: thanks for the response..gud to see all partcipating

Harish: where are u boss??

rgds

Sandeep

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

I was in a lot of confusion for last couple of days regarding the Indian Markets and political drama surrounding it. Today I want to put a few things regarding the political situation and its possible impact on markets.

There has been an ongoing political drama in New Delhi. The congress led govt in center had been enjoying the fruits of power but the left parties that support the govt from "outside" have become a headache for not only the ruling congress party but also other allies of it. We all know India is pursuing a Nuclear Deal with the US of A. This deal will pave way for not only the development of Nuclear Power projects in India but also for the lift up of sanctions imposed on India from 45 countries. The left don't want the deal - at any cost, for one single reason - US of A. Interestingly, there are only two countries opposing this deal - Pakistan and China, and that is for obvious reasons.

If we have a referendum on the deal, the result should be overwhelmingly in favour of the deal as surveys indicate that Indian public is very much in favour of the deal. Then why congress is not going ahead with it and why is it fearing early elections? well, the economic situation and particularly the inflation is proving to be too big for the ruling party to handle. They just can't afford elections at this juncture.

So, is the govt in threat? as Left have almost made their mind to withdraw support. The known answer to this is NO. The govt isn't under threat as Samajwadi Party has come to rescue the govt. There are obvious reasons for SP to support congress now. One is Behenji in UP who is enemy no one of both congress and SP at this point of time. The other big reason is J&K govt has "gifted" an issue to the hungry BJP and sangh parivar and they have taken it with both the hands. SP and others can cash on the muslim votes by advertising they saved the govt when "communal forces" were "threatening". Another reason is the chhota bhai - Anil Ambani. I have little doubt he has struck a deal with Amar Singh & Co. to support the govt on "few conditions". This will be clear in few days.

Now, coming to the impact of all these on markets I maintain my view that our markets are in sustainable bear trend which is not going to finish despite all this. If someone is looking at things clearly, then one must learn from friday that even after the "SP saving the govt" open secret, the markets DID NOT SHOW MUCH WILLINGNESS TO GO UP. There is something that is preventing investors from "believing" the potential political peace. However, there is all the possibility that there can be a late reaction and we might see markets jumping up in coming sessions. If in any case such a thing happens, I will be in favour of initiating fresh shorts, rather than thinking a bottom has been established.

My advice is when there is a dichotomy in Technicals and Fundamentals, JUST FOLLOW THE TECHNICALS - THE BASIC ONES LIKE TRENDLINES, MA SEQUENCE AND BASIC PATTERNS. The best is to switch off the news and see charts and only charts.

I conclude today's post with a repeat of my advice - Follow Technicals.

Thanks and Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[rocky5iitr]

I dont think anyone following technicals should even bother about the events happening around him else he's bound to fail.News come and go daily.Markets have gone down almost 2000+ points from its jan top and that has not happened for no reason.Markets are in bear phase coz' there is some problem in underlying fundamentals.Crude oil which is hovering above 140 is going to cause a severe budgetary deficit which neither SP nor chotaa bhai is going to compensate from their homes.Every instt investor is looking at those things rather than political drama which is usual thing in India.So the bottomline is that its the deterioration of fundaments rather than anything else and the technicals are just following it.Markets are soon going to see the impact of high inflationary environment in the balance sheet of cos. and that will be when more severe and prolonged falls will come in next phase of bear market.

[hdobhal]

Dear Rocky,

I agree with each and every word of yours. I posted all of that just to discuss the "situation" and I did it coz lot of ppl are banking on that. By my post I want to say two things -

1. Hey guys, look here, I know a thing or two about the political scene so don't think I don't understand it and so don't think my bearishness for the time being is just a kiddish thing.

2. I want to tell ppl that whatever is happening, you gotta trust charts as news is always there in charts - even before it breaks on u !!!

well, we both agree to disagree on the news events as source of trading input

Harish

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

I am continuing with my post on political drama. I know here are few takers for that, and its good too as politics is a very different subject and better be avoided by good thinking ppl , but still I would certainly like to add few things to my post.

In my previous post I said there can be a "deal" behind the SP supporting the govt and yesterday's developments add fuel to that. SP demanded revision of Reliance's exports (may be a condition for support), the ostensible reason for that is they are "worried" about oil prices and how can Reliance be allowed to export. The SP logic may be sound but Murli Dewda is not happy, and of course, Mukesh can't be happy either. So, what should he do? well, I think he has already started "doing" something. Yest the other members of UNPA - INLD, TDP and AGP took a 180 deg turn. Imagine how gung ho they were about supporting the deal and "unity" in the UNPA !!! there must have happened something - something initiated by the "potential-to-be-in-trouble" person and company.

I think coming days are going to be very interesting for politics, markets and R word related stocks. My advice is see the price action and forget political news, as the informed ppl will start doing things in advance and those who react after the "all is out" will not have any chance by then. In other words, I am advising to follow the charts of R stocks, from both camps. OR, just avoid them.

I will be updating this debate if I find anything related to markets.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish

i totally agree with u


cheersssssssss bearsssssssssss

[vivek999]

Hi Team,

It's nice to see good debate going-on in this thread. Good going! Let's respect others' views, and share our views.

All the Best!

Regards,
Vivek