iCharts Discussions

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish


This week Nifty movement cannot be gauged on a standalone basis. Much dependent on Reliance Industries Movement.

There is a dichotomy in the closing price of Nifty and Reliance on last Friday, i.e. on 04.07. 2008. Nifty Futures weekly pivot is 3864 and it has closed above that on Friday. Any retracement to 3864 will be deterrant for its upmove and it can fall to 3600. If you take Reliance Industries Ltd, last week high of 2260 is very important. Breakingout that level RIL will moveup, else it tend to become weak. Failure to cross 2260 can push down the Reliance stock to 1814 and 1630 level.

Incase if Nifty breaches 3864, then whatever high it makes this week prior to breaching of this level will become SL for shorting opportunity. I would rather concentrate on RIL than Nifty this week.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA

[daytrader007]

With due respect to everybody,

I think, if NF has to sustain this pull back then it has to sustain and close above 4935-4940 (NIFTY future). Where as if NF closes below 4940, it would touch 3600. For up side, if closes above 4100 NF, then it may pull back upto 4265.

Thanks,
Swapan

[hdobhal]

Dear RR sir,

Thanks for replying sir. I agree with you on your view. I hope it will be an interesting week going forward.

Harish

Dear Swapan,

First thanks for posting here.
Do you mean 39xx or are u serious about 49xx. I think its a typo. pls clarify.

Harish

[daytrader007]

Dear Harish. my apology for typing mistakes in my previous post. Please find correct one below:


With due respect to everybody,

I think, if NF has to sustain this pull back then it has to sustain and close above 3935-3940 (NIFTY future). Where as if NF closes below 3940, it would touch 3600. For up side, if closes above 4100 NF, then it may pull back upto 4265.

Thanks,
Swapan

[sivanamakkal]

Hi everybody,

I appreciate all team members of this forum. Your job is excellent! I also wanted to participate in this forum but I was little nervous to express my projections. Now I explain my views here.

I have read Elliott Wave explained by Robert C. Beckman and Dynamic Trading by Robert C. Miner. From these books I projected the market direction in my ideas in three different charts.

We had finished cycle wave I and primary wave V at 6357 on 8/01/2008. Now we are in cycle wave II. I think we have finished wave 3 of primary wave A. The wave II will be most probabily Zigzag correction. But one rule of Elliott suggest that wave 4 never exceeds wave 1. If it goes above 4468 we have to change our projections to Flat or Irregular correction. I have submited my projection charts here. Please verify and comment on it.

[hdobhal]

Dear Siva,

Thanks for posting your views here. I like the way you have shown in detail various possibilities about market.

Please keep up the good work...

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[sanmen]

Hi Siva

gud to see new members posting their analysis here...thats gr8..appreciate ur views and work which u have presented in a very easy to understand manner..

i guess u r establishing that the wave 3 is over and we are in wave 4 now..however if i am correct, wave 3 can not be smaller than the wave 1 as per the EW guidelines which indicates that the wave 3 is not yet complete and we should (by EW guidelines) see further downside which should complete the pattern...at the same time, i guess theres something like irregular correction which u have also discussed..

pl review my point and do post in your thoughts on the same.

cheers!!

Sandeep

[rocky5iitr]

I think the symmetry is not considered in any of the charts and none of the charts seem to satisfy basic rules of EW

[sivanamakkal]

Hi All, thanks to Harish, Sandeep and Rocky

Thanks for commenting on my views. Here I have submited somemore charts to clarify your doubts.

Dear Rocky, First of all I think charts never behave as in text book drawing. You are correct in your views but I am only giving the probabilities. The beauty of Elliott Theory is we have to adjust the wave count where ever it changes its direction.


Dear Sandeep, You have mentioned about one rule of Elliott. Here I clarify some of the rules of Elliott Theory
1) Wave 2 willnot retrace all the ground gained by Wave 1
2) Wave 4 will never retrace all the ground gained by Waves 1 and 3
3) Wave 2 will be shorter than Wave 1 and Wave 4 will be shorter than Wave 3. Furthermore, Wave 4 will usually turn above the bottom of Wave 2.
4) Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves (1,3 and 5) in the five wave sequence.
5) Wave 4 cannot overlap or trade into the territory of Wave 1.

The 4th rule states that Wave 3 cannot be the shortest than 1 and 5 but it can be shorter than Wave 1. If Wave 3 is shorter than Wave 1 then Wave 5 must be shorter than Wave 3.

I explained all my knowings, if anything wrong please correct me. I am giving some rules and charts here for your clarifications on my view. Best regards. Thank you.

[sivanamakkal]

There is a popular comment about Elliott Theory i.e. if we give same chart to 10 Elliottions, they come out with 10 different wave counts. I know it is true. In business line and queenstrade website they count this 3rd wave of A as 3rd wave of C. Here I would like to suggest an important thing, Our motive is always to earn money and not predicting the market.

We must be flexible in changing our views and wave counts according to the direction of the market otherwise we will end in trouble. I am also aware about other wave counts like wave 3 of C. If the low 3,848 breached, I will change my wave count and holdings immediately. I also want all of you to do the same. There are more complex corrections in Elliott Wave Theory and I am trying to understand all those.

Note: Rules are easy to read but hard to follow, I am also facing lot of problems and frustrations and still I am trying to know something about the market.

I would like to quote onething told by our friend Jimmie in the shoutbox, Whereever we enter the market (say Nifty Long at 2,200 or Short at 6,400) we become nervous and afraid if the market goes few points againt our position.

Best Wishes and Regards
Thank you
Siva

[marne.vivek]

hi all,

this is an experiment i am trying with nifty, tying to tell probable points for like high / low close of nifty..

Probable points of Nifty based on Retracement / Arc and Fan intersections:

We stay in arc section 2:
4166.66
4142.21
4044


We move to arc section 3:
4182
4264

lets see what happens tomo..

this is a very basic study, don;t take investment decision based on this, only for testing..

[rameshraja]

Mr Vivek

Very nice chart by Fibonacci Arc and Fan. Infact, I am using this extensively for my trading and it will pay you well if you go still deeper into this.

Best wishes


C T RAMESH RAJA

[marne.vivek]

RR Sir,

thank you very much for your words of appreciation. i will keep up the study.

thank you sir...

and i will explore more on the subject..

regards,
vivek

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Today I am posting my analysis of Nifty as of 10th July, 08. First my apologies for posting so late. The time is just not allowing me to be in time

Please refer to the chart, there I've drawn several trendlines depicting the major areas of support and resistance. As we see, the index is in sustained Bear Market. The Major Downtrend Line is still looking too far away and so there is little for those who think the Bear Market is over or is going to be over soon. The resistance area considering this line is the place I have put "Rh" standing for Resistance - highest. The level for this is 4650 and getting lower every day.

The next line of major resistance is Secondary Downtrend Line, which interestingly is on the verge of meeting with the well known support line which I have termed on the chart as Major Support Line (Previous). This area, the one at the meeting point of these two lines is going to be the biggest resistance for coming time, which I've marked as Rb - Resistance biggest. The level for this is around 4500 - 4550.

Before Nifty can try to reach the above mentioned Rb area, it will need to cross the latest downtrend line, the level for which for 11th July comes at 4310 - 4330. I've marked it as Rt - Resistance today.

In the above paragraphs I have mentioned only resistances but, there is definitely one support for Nifty which is at the latest uptrend line and the level comes at around 4000. I've put St - Support today for this area for 11th July. This means that bulls need to maintain at least 4000 in order to be in the game. Also, it looks a triangle is forming which can very well be a continuation triangle and we may see even lower lows if it breaks down.

I conclude my analysis with this and hope you all enjoy reading the post.

Disclaimer: Trading in stock markets is full of risks and one should consult a professional before acting on any kind of trade.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[mgowthamjain]

hello marne vivek


Good chart of fib spiral and its good for Day Trading.


Keep it up dear and keep on posting this for benefit of our icharts

members