iCharts Discussions

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish


better late than never (u want to post on 10th.But due to time lag u

have posted on 11th). All the best ,



Cheersssssssssssss !

[sanmen]

HI Vivek/Harish

gr8 stuff man...keep posting..i am really happy that a few of ichartians are really open to share knowledge which is beneficial to all others..keep up the gud work man..

we can already see the participation from other members as well..

But u guys are being missed in the SB...whats up??

cheers!!

Sandeep

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

Today I am analyzing Nifty - both EOD as well as Weekly. Let me come to the weekly chart first:

I have drawn only two trend lines and two Moving Averages (Simple) on the Long Term Chart of Nifty Weekly. The Line 1 is the major support line under formation (I say so because it has still not found the third point in order to qualify to be a "trend line" by definition). This Line 1 support comes at around 3100. But, before this line, there is the 200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) which is at around 3500 and is going up still. So, going by this, the first major support for Nifty, according to 200 SMA should come at 3500 - 3600 levels. If this support area is breached then the next logical support should be the Line 1, at around 3100 levels. If this Line 1 gives support, then it will become a Major Support line for a good time. Breaching this line decisively will mean Nifty is in a Long Term Bear Market.

If Nifty manages to move up from here, the major resistance should be at the Major Downtrend Line - Line 2. The level for this line resistance come at around 4500 - 4600.

For readers' convenience, I've put arrows and a red dot at the above mentioned support and resistance areas.

THE EOD CHART

Looking at the EOD (End of Day) or what we simply call it Daily chart, Nifty refused to breach either the support (Line 6) or the resistance (Line 4), as I had mentioned in my last post. However, one thing to be noticed here is that it closed below another resistance line - Line 5, which is indicative of how weak are bulls. The bulls can only have some relief as the Line 6 is still holding. Line 5 is very steep, so I will place my bet on Line 4, which is at almost 45 deg angle so should be more trusting.

I want to tell one very important thing to my readers. Did you notice a triangle is being formed (see Line 4 and Line 6)? Well, If it really does prove to be a symmetrical triangle, then it gives a target of near 3600 in coming days !!! Now remember what I said in Weekly analysis above? remember the 200 SMA on weekly Nifty chart? Its at around the same level - 3500 - 3600 !!!

So, If Nifty continues the previous downtrend then my advice is look for volumes as a triangle breakout will be confirmed if it goes down with big volumes.

If you are a Fibonacci follower, then taking the high of 18th June and the latest low, Nifty FAILED TO CLOSE ABOVE 38.2% RETRACEMENT FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS !!! Almost everything is pointing to more pain for bulls in the coming days.

I hope you find my analysis worth giving a serious thought. I would definitely like my readers to put their comments after reading.

Disclaimer: Trading in Stock Markets is full of risk and you should consult a professional before initiating any trade. My views and analysis expressed here should only be treated as a "view" and "analysis" and NOT a trading recommendation.

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish Dobhal
[/b]

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

for a moment, let me put aside all charts and all fundamentals... Let me try something new, new that is not ANALYSIS but is worth a lot of pondering ...

I take you to a completely new world. WHAT? u misread it? well, I repeat - to a COMPLETELY NEW WORLD. The world of dreams bigger than the best of them...

I am presenting here a link that will make the whole world zealous towards India and Indians !!! AND, simultaneously it will make a lot of readers (Most of them not in India actually) PROUD...

DREAMS DO SELL and they sell at real high prices... HOW??? well, click on the link and read yourself... It will tell you how SALEABLE is INDIA STORY even today !!!

Just visit this and start dreaming... http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/FST/EFSTJ225/?o=1514814&u=32638674&l=842202

When you wake up, don't be surprised to see the TRUTH

All the Best Folks
Harish Dobhal
P.S. My dear friend Gabhijit is going to like this like hell... He already loves TataMotors and not to forget Ramtrade, as he is a die hard India Story Believer
Well, I don't know how Mayur will react as he knows so much about copper and very close to it

[ramtrade]

I know of a consultancy called Agora Financial they too sell the India story at a very high price too....!

Even today, all i know is we have just started the journey and we still have a very long way to go. We have millions still under poverty and large percentage of people lack descent standard of living. There's so much room to expand. The change has to happen from the grass root level....only then the dream can be fulfilled. India needs another freedom struggle.....

Of late with quite a bit spare time, i had a chance to read couple of books which i would like to mention here....

AlanGreenSpan Fraud by Dr Ravi Batra. Visit his website....i found it good...

http://news.aol.com/?feature=20080713193909990001...amazing...$5.3 trillion worth of mortagage. I guess this time US will have the biggest no. of millionaries. It remains to be see how many countries bought this dream...from what i read is that rest of the world bought this dream more than the Americans themselves......

Thanks
Ramesh

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramesh,

You are right, we need a new revolution - the one which targets not economic development alone but complete socio-economic. The first thing that needs to be created is the awareness in people to not accept the "cheap" treatment in any area, to have some civic sense and recognition of other people's freedom.

But, do you think that can happen here? I think it can. But a real Will Power and some great leader like Gandhiji is urgently required.

Harish

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends,

As envisaged in my earlier post, the triangle has snapped downward and now the chances are bigger and bigger for 3600 or thereabout on Nifty. But I don't think it will be a one way slide, if it is, then better be a buyer at lower levels as it will be oversold.

As some of you know, I also write a blog with the nickname HARRY. As posting links here is not allowed, please don't think "I did not tell u". The good thing is - I post all the things here as well.

Thanks & Best Regards

Harish Dobhal

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish


yes we will see 3600 soon and also 3300 before diwali 2008



Bears cheersssssssssss !

[hdobhal]

MGO Sir,

amen

Cheeeeersssssssss Bearssssssssss

Harish

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends...

The markets will go up and down but there are times when we should take our time and ponder at the larger economic picture. And that is NOT for trading. STRICTLY NOT. As trading and economics are not that closely related.

So, ready for a discussion? well, I want your opinion first - whether I should post my outlook or not.

I hope you will be in favour...

Thanks & Looking for your replies for further action...

Harish Dobhal

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Market finally determines the fundamentals only. IN the process of finding the price discovery to forward earnings , lot of excess is done at the top and bottom. But ultimately fundamentals and economics only wins.

Trading and value discovery are two sides of coin. Trading is specualtive and in this process of speculation price discovery is done for an asset. This price discovery is directly related to economics and fundamentals.

Trust I am right in my knowledge.

Regards

C T RAMESH RAJA

[eagleseyes]

attaching some thing with this reply..kindly confirm can it be a possibilty or not

a wolve wave formation on dow and on snp

[hdobhal]

Dear RR sir,

First my thanks for replying to my post.

Sir, I think price discovery is certainly related to fundamentals in the long run, but I did not mean this. What I say is one CAN NOT TRADE on the mere basis of fundamentals. In my understanding the definition of trade is - to buy something at some price and sell at a higher price in order to make a profit. This is for all trade in general.However, in stocks trading there is an added advantage of selling before buying.

Now coming to fundamentals, one can only invest on fundamentals and not trade. The fundamentals of a company do not change in a day or two, but stock prices change dramatically in a matter of hours or even minutes!!! WHY? the simple reason is the trade happens only on one aspect - The DEMAND and SUPPLY game. If, for ex, there is a bigger demand for Reliance stocks at any given point of time than supply, then the Reliance stock will rise in price. SIMPLE. It doesn't matter (IN THAT MOMENT OF TRADE) what are the fundamentals of Reliance.

Sir, I do understand your point and you are absolutely right that the ultimate price discovery is related to the fundamentals. What I meant by that post was :-

1. I wanted to post something on fundamentals.

2. I made a disclaimer that fundamentals are not for trading.

The bad point is that NOBODY SHOWED ANY INTEREST IN FUNDAMENTALS, or in other words, people do not want to think beyond 3xxx or 4xxxx or 5xxx.

Very sadly I am forced to say that I made a mistake by asking for opinions.

THANKS & BEST REGARDS

HARISH DOBHAL

[hdobhal]

Dear Saurabh,

Good point. Though I don't know much about waves, I think there is definitely a case of wolf here. I think Vivek.Marne can confirm.

Thanks, keep on posting...

Harish

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

I just posted my view of trading and fundamentals.

I have a deeper interest in fundamentals. You can go ahead and post about economics and fundamentals. I love to read that. Infact, I pay equal interest to fundamentals like what I do in technicals.

I have enormous interest in reading the financials of corporates right from my graduation to my articlesship with a CA firm and further my stinct as accouting professional with Mcdowells for more than 17 years in various capacities in corporate Finance and Accounts.

You please go ahead and post your views and would like to know more about economics and fundas.

Best Wishes

C T RAMESH RAJA