iCharts Discussions

[kiran.jain]

o yes yes mgo.... u posted it earlier.....

regards

[eagleseyes]

Hi harish bhai....quite a long time that u posted here..what happned ?

[hdobhal]

Last week was a week of perfect indecision - what the candlestick chart of Nifty Future suggests, a doji. Bulls tried their best and so did bears but no one had a decisive upper hand. The volume however remained average.

Looking at the Weekly Chart of Nifty Future, the Main Downtrend Line since Jan this year is still holding and acting as resistance. One more thing to note down is Nifty Future is unable to get past 34 Period EMA on weekly chart and if we take into account the May month high and July month low, the 61.8% retracement (a very important Fibonacci number) around 4680 level is also near this 34 EMA and very close to the Main Downtrend Line.

The short term trend is up if we take the July low and August high as Nifty Future bounced from the 50% retracement level of this up move.

My view is that for the coming week there can be an upside which may find resistance at around 4500 level. If it comes then the next level to watch out for would be 4680. Considering the main trend as down, I think the chances of that are low but if it eventually comes and weekly closing is above it, then the Bear Market would be in danger. For support 4320 is going to be first crucial level for next week, breaching it, the next support would be again at 4207.

Dear Saurabh: sorry for not posting here for so long, will try my best to do it regularly...

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Closing above 4680, you say Bear Market in Danger. I totally disagree with you. Even if it closes above 4680, there is not much of upside.

The bear market will continue and the long term trend of bearishness will perpetuate to logical downside TGTS. The weight of evidence of fundamentals point towards a big collapse of our market soon.

Bear market rallies are powerful and swift and it could even make one believe that bull market is once again born but eventually will fall with force.

Regards

C T R

[hdobhal]

Dear Rameshraja Sir,
First my thanks for replying to my post sir.

Sir,
I apologize for confusing you. I DO NOT MEAN IN ANY WAY THAT THIS BEAR MARKET IN DANGER MEANS START OF BULL MARKET. What I meant is that for SHORT TERM the Bear Market MAY change to a SIDEWAYS market (in pure technical terms) and the Primary Bear Market will eventually resume later.

Sir, I wholeheartedly agree with you on the fundamentals. When you said the signal for a new down move arrived I was one of the first believers. But, my little understanding of charts made me say IF (the very distinct possibility) of a temporary shift in the direction from Bear to Sideways and then the RESUMPTION of Bear Market.

Sir, if you have read my posts when the markets were going up like hell, you must know that I suspected all those rallies. This is not because I am a permanent Bear (as many people think) but because I feel the fundamentals are not calling for a recovery as yet.

Sir, I hope you have understood my point and hope you will continue to shower your blessings on me...

Harish

[hdobhal]

Hello Friends

I sense something so thought to put my alert here. Well, though the short term may look up, IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR NIFTY TO GO ABOVE 4350. EVEN IF IT DOES, FIRST IT NEEDS TO REVISIT 4150 - 4200.

I saw a lot of NEW BORN BULLS here and there and they are so enthused by the deadly US decision that they have concluded bear market is over. BUT they are wrong. BEAR MARKET IS INTACT AND VERY MUCH INTO FORCE.

NOTE: DESPITE SUCH A FURIOUS UP MOVE OF LAST TWO SESSIONS, NIFTY FUTURE HOURLY CHART IS STILL SHOWING DOWNTREND MA SEQUENCE.

Don't fall prey to this, as I told in one of my blog posts, this was just a correction of OVERcorrection.

Your True Friend
Harish

[hdobhal]

How was this friends? (read my last post of 22 Sept)

My warning on 22nd Sept proved to be right. If someone paid heed to it, he would have survived.

Very bad, no one bothered to even acknowledge it

Anyway, thanks...

Harish

[mgowthamjain]

hello harish

Good one

bears cheersssssss !

[rameshraja]

Hello Harish

Bear is a bad word in stock market.

How do you expect people to respond to you.

A bear needs to be recognised by an another bear. And I agree with your view.

Please don't Label me as a Bear always irrespective of market conditions, as I was a BULL in the last last five years.

At the end of the day money matters and its better to be with the trend.

Best Wishes

C T R

[hdobhal]

Dear Ramesh Sir,

haha. Well, I never "mark" people with a level

U r right sir, only "bears" would have responded to my call

I remember how bulls started talking about 4800 when there was that bear market rally... In fact I thank them for this golden opportunity they provide by lifting Nifty to 4300 One of those bulls even asked me to "bring markets down" so that he could buy. Poor guy. Some think putting distorted charts will change things ... What a pity for them, fooling themselves

And now so many of them are relying on Bush & Co. to push markets up... God help them, poor bulls...

My Best Regards Sir,

Harish

[Stockhunter]

Dear Harish - Congratulations on your right TA and believe me there are many others who trade with the trend.....I think thats the safest bet to risk one's money. On similar lines I have been shorting this market since March this year despite intermittent rallies... thats common sense and no brilliance...

but some people play swings and try to catch even corrections... tough game but if one is REALLY good, they make more money than anyone else. They are also the first one's to catch reversals to major trend.. Thats brilliance for me ... and just becuase sometimes they fail doesnt make them laughing stocks or 'poor guys' .... I think we should respect all views but follow our own... no point laughing at people because this market is a cruel leveller!

Cheers

[mgowthamjain]

hello SH

I fully agree with u

Trend is our friend

and go with trend

Cheerssssssss !

[hdobhal]

Dear Friends,

For a moment let us forget markets and remember the occasion. The 2nd October, Great Gandhiji's Birthday. I know people may ask the relevance of Gandhiji in today's world but then he wasn't relevant in his contemporary times either, if such a logic is considered. But if sanity is to prevail, Gandhiji was relevant and is still relevant today.

Gandhiji was a person who defied general logic of armed confrontation and revolts and put forward the concept of NON-VIOLENCE. He not only proved it was right, he also proved it could be effective and much more than violent means. Gandhiji was a leader above leaders. When he used to walk on street, people would just come behind and follow him. Millions of people who followed him were ready to face bullets all without any weapon. He was in a sense above humanity, a person who left all luxury and lived life of a "poor Indian" all his life. He belonged to rich family and could chose to remain a lawyer which was his profession before he jumped into freedom struggle. A person who could afford to live in luxury spent all his life wearing only a dhoti.

There have been great leaders but Gandhiji was greatest, beyond comparison. He might have lapsed in some policies as many argue, but no one can be perfect.

Let me recite following lines in his memory:

De di humen aazadi bina khadga bina dhaal,
Saabarmati ke sant tune kar diya kamal,
Aandhi me bhi jalti rahi Gandhi teri mashal,
Saabarmati ke sant tune kar diya kamal.

Gandhiji Amar rahen (Long Live Gandhiji)

[hdobhal]

Hello My Bear Friends oops, My Dear Friends,

Bears have achieved 3600 on Nifty. Now bears should give some room to bulls. I think 3600 on Nifty and 11800 on Sensex is going to be very important as its a BIG support.

I expect a relief rally till 4000, then may be 4200, if this 3600 on NF holds.

Well, As I have said so many times, do not go for counter trend, the main trend is still down and is likely to remain so.

For investors, my advice for gold on dips is still intact...

Thanks & Best Regards
Harish

[rameshraja]

Dear Harish

Every support is getting broken. Probably it can pullback to 3850 - 3900.

Today Reliance closing below 1685 is disastrous for market.

Tomorrow I think NF should take support around 3565 and give a pullback rally.


Regards


C T R